气候变化对旅游影响的研究进展

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(,330022)3(06YJ35,08YJ54)[ThisstudywassupportedbyagrantfromJiangxiProvincialSocialSci2enceFoundation(toLIUChun2yan)(No.06YJ35)and(toMAODuan2qian)(No.08YJ54).][]2009-03-12;[]2009-10-26[](1964-),,,,,,E2mail:[e-mail];(1963-),,,,,;(1985-),,,[][];;;[]F59[]A[]1002-5006(2010)02-0091-062080,;,,(UNW2TO)(FrancescoFrangialli):,2003,,1[1][2]1998(WWF),1999[3]20001,2001[4]20021,2[5],,2090,,3:[6],[7],[8]2003,[9-11]2003,20034(Djerba),;,[9]20036(ESF),,,(),[12],©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(IPCC)(UNFCCC)(,)[13](Scott)1936[14],206070,2080(),20902006,JournalofSustainableTourism,20071013,200711,(TheEcotourismSociety,TIES)UNEP(GlobalEcotourismCon2ference2007,GEC07):2008TourismRespondingtotheChal2lengeofClimateChange2(Nicholls&Hoozem2ans)(Perry),(Gable),(Wall),(Krupp)(Lohmann)[2,1519],(Witt&Witt),(Delphi)(scenarioprojection)[20](Cun2liffe)()[21],4:(Abegg)[7][22-24](Scott&McBoyle)[25],,20502080,,,4(Amelung&Viner)[26],,202020502080015015,,,,[27](Matzarakis),,[8],(DeFreitas),[28][6,29],(PooledTravelCostModel,PTCM)[30],©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(Agnew&Palutikof)[31](Fukushima,etal.)(Jones&Scott)[32,33],(Pearce)[34],,[35](Hamilton,etal.)2071995,,,,,3,,[9](McBoyle&Wall,etal.),[2](Koenig&Abegg)2,63%(Breiling&Charamza)2,,,[36](Harrison,etal.)(El2sasser&Messerli)(Kuoppamaeki),[37,38]7,330%(Breiling,etal.),10%[39],30%,GDP115%[40](KÊnig),()(),()[41](Loomis&Crespi)8,[42]2060,2157%,(-52%),14%,9%(Mendelsohn&Markowski)[43],(Richardson&Loomis),,919%20201316%[44]3,1,1%5%(Maddison),2130,2,15%113%,212%[6],(Viner&Agnew),212050[3],,,:,,,,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:(1)(2)(3)::(1);(2),;(3)(Dubois)3:(1)(2)(3)(GHG)UNW2TO4:(1);(2);(3);(4)[45],[46],()(),,[45]:(1)4%6%(2),,30,115(GÊssling,etal.),[47],,[48]4,,[49],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[][1]McBoyleG,WallG.GreatLakesskiingandclimatechange[A].In:GillA,HartmannR.(ed.)MountainResortDevelop2ment[C].Burnaby:CentreforTourismPolicyandResearch,Si2monFraserUniversity.1992.70-81.[2]WallG.Implicationsofglobalclimatechangefortourismandrecreationinwetlandareas[J].ClimaticChange,1998,40(2):371-389.[3]VinerD,AgnewM.ClimateChangeandItsImpactsonTourism[R].ReportPreparedforWWF2UK,Godalming,1999.[4]AgnewM,VinerD.Potentialimpactsofclimatechangeoninter2nationaltourism[J].InternationalJournalofTourismandHospi2talityResearch,2001,25(3):37-61.[5]VinerD.Tourismanditsinteractionswithclimate[J].JournalofSustainableTourism,2006,14(4):317-322.[6]MaddisonD.Insearchofwarmerclimates?TheimpactofclimatechangeonflowsofBritishtourists[J].ClimaticChange,2001,43(4):193-208.[7]AbeggB.Klima¾nderungundTourismusKlimafolgenforschungamBeispieldesWintertourismusindenSchweizerAlpen[R].Zur2ich:vdfHochschuleverlaganderETH,1996.[8]MatzarakisA.ExamplesofClimateandTourismResearchforTourismDemands.15thConferenceonBiometeorologyandAero2biologyjointwiththeInternationalCongressonBiometeorology,27October21November2002,KansasCity,Missouri[EB/OL].©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[9]WTO.ClimateChangeandTourism[Z].Proceedingsofthe1stInternationalConferenceonClimateChangeandTourism.Djer2ba,Tunisia,9-11April2003.[10]GÊsslingS,HallCM.TourismandGlobalEnvironmentalChange:Ecological,Social,EconomicandPoliticalInter2rela2tionships[M].London:Routledge.2005.183-198.[11]ScottD,WallG,McBoyleG.Theevolutionofclimatechangeis2suesinthetourismSector[A].In:HallCM,HighamJ.(ed.)TourismRecreationandClimateChange[C].NewYork:Chan2nelViewPublications.2005.44-63.[12]VinerD,AmelungB.ClimateChange,theEnvironmentandtourism:Theinteractions.ProceedingsoftheEsf2LescWorkshop,Climatechange,theEnvironmentandTourism:TheInteractions[Z].Milan,4-6June2003.[13]PattersonT.Knowledgemanagementfortourism,recreationandbioclimatology:Mappingtheinteractions[A].In:MatzarakisA,deFreitasCR,ScottD.(ed.)AdvancesinTourismClimatology[C].Freiburg:FreiburgUniversity.2004.96-109.[14]ScottD,JonesB,McBoyleG.Climate,Tourism,andRecrea2tion:ABibliography1936-2006.UniversityofWaterloo[EB/OL].[15]NichollsRJ,HoozemansFMJ.TheMediterranean:Vulnerabil2itytocoastalimplicationsofclimatechange[J].OceanandCoastalManagement,1996,61(1):105-132.[16]PerryA.ImpactsofClimateChangeonTourismintheMediterra2nean:AdaptiveResponses[R].NotadiLavoro3.5.2000,Fonda2zioneEniEnricoMattei,Milan.[17]GableFJ.ClimatechangeimpactsonCaribbeancoastalareasandtourism[J].JournalofCoastalResearch,1997,13(3):49-70.[18]KruppC.Klima¾nderungenunddieFolgen:EineExemplarischeFallstudieberdieMÊglichkeitenundGrenzenEinerInterdisziplin¾renKlimafolgenforschung[R].Berlin:Ed