人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南进出口贸易的影响研究

摘要进出口贸易对拉动我国经济增长起着不可忽视的作用。湖南虽然不是进出口大省，但湖南正在借“中部崛起”的历史性机遇，采取有效措施，扩大对外贸易规模，以促进经济增长。然而扩大对外贸易规模，就必须要关注人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南进出口的影响。因为人民币实际有效汇率升值会导致湖南经济生活一系列调整，尤其将直接导致进出口价格的变动，从而影响湖南对外贸易扩张。因此研究人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南进出口贸易的影响，具有重要的现实意义。关于人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南省进出口贸易的影响，学术界虽然己经进行了一定的研究，但就己有的研究成果看，尚存在诸多不足之处，这不仅表现为研究视角的欠缺，更重要的是这些研究范式单一，要么只做定性研究，要么只做定量分析，并且都以零散的论文形式出现，尚未形成系统的研究成果。因此，本文试图采用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法，填补该问题系统研究的空白。本研究以购买力平价理论和弹性分析理论为基础，首先分析近年人民币实际有效汇率升值的原因，因为原因存在的持续性，人民币升值具有长期趋势。然后本文通过机制分析就人民币汇率升值对湖南进出口产生影响的渠道进行阐述，具体而言人民币汇率将通过影响贸易价格、贸易方式、贸易模式、贸易环境四个方面导致湖南进出口贸易的变动。进而通过实证分析对人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南进出口贸易的影响从定量的角度进行探讨。实证分析通过构建计量模型，可以证明人民币实际有效汇率和湖南进出口贸易两者间存在短期和长期的均衡关系，并且就整体而言，人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南出口的影响更为显著。结合分析结论，本文提出湖南省进出口贸易应当提升质量，树立品牌;优化进出口贸易结构;发展战略性新兴出口产业;实现进出口市场的广泛性的对策建议。AbstractImportandexporttradeinstimulatingeconomicgrowthplaysasignificantrole.AlthoughHunanprovinceisn'tanimportantimportandexportprovince,HunanisusingthehistoricopportunityofRiseofCentralChina,totakeeffectivemeasurestoexpandthescaleofforeigntradeandtopromoteeconomicgrowth.However,expandingthescaleofinternationaltrade,itisnecessarytopayattentiontotherealeffectiveexchangerateofRMBappreciationontheimpactofimportsandexportsinHunan.BecausetherealeffectiveexchangerateappreciationwouldleadaseriesofadjustmentstoeconomiclifeofHunan,inparticular,willleaddirectchangesinimportandexportprices,thenaffecttheexpansionofforeigntradeinHunan.Therefore,realeffectiveexchangerateofRMBappreciationonimportandexportofHunan,hasimportantpracticalsignificance.Aboutthetitle,someacademicresearcheshavebeendone,butlookattheexistingresearchresults,therearestillmanyshortcomings.Someofthesestudiesnotonlylackofperspective,butalsohaveaproblem,asingleparadigm,orqualitativeorquantitativeanalysisonly.Andallthefragmentedpaperform,haven'tformasystemresearchresults.Therefore,thispaperattemptstouseamethod,combinationoftheoreticalandempiricalanalysistofillgapsinthesystematicstudyoftheproblem.Thepurchasingpowerparitytheoryandelasticitytheoryarethebasictheory,atfirstthepaperanalysisthereasonswhyrealeffectiveexchangerateofRMBappreciationinrecentyears.ThenthroughtheoreticaltoanalysistheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateimpactonimportsandexportsinHunan,specifically,RMBexchangeratewillaffectthetradeprice,trademethods,tradepatterns,andthetradeenvironmentfouraspects.AndthenthroughempiricalanalysisoftherealeffectiveexchangerateappreciationonimportandexportofHunanbyconstructingameasurementmodel,theresultcanprovethattherealeffectiveexchangerateandHunanimportandexporttradehavebothshort-termandlong-termequilibriumrelationship,andonthewhole,theimpactofrealeffectiveexchangerateofRMBappreciationonHunan'sexportsmoresignificant.Combinedwithanalysisconclusionthispaperwillgivesextensivesuggestions.Keywords:RealeffectiveexchangerateofRMB;Appreciation;ForeignTrade;I目录摘要........................................................................................................................IVAbstract...............................................................................................................……V第1章绪论..................................................................................................................11.1选题背景及意义.............................................................................................11.2文献综述.........................................................................................................11.2.1国外文献综述......................................................................................21.2.2国内文献综述......................................................................................41.2.3小结......................................................................................................_51.3研究思路及论文结构....................................................................................._51.3.1研究思路及方法.................................................................................._51.3.2论文结构..............................................................................................61.4可能的创新点.................................................................................................6第2章相关概念与理论依据......................................................................................72.1相关概念.........................................................................................................72.1.1直接汇率和间接汇率..........................................................................72.1.2名义汇率和实际汇率..........................................................................72.1.3名义有效汇率和实际有效汇率..........................................................82.2相关理论依据.................................................................................................92.2.1购买力平价理论..................................................................................92.2.2弹性分析理论....................................................................................10第3章人民币实际有效汇率升值的态势及原因....................................................123.1人民币实际有效汇率升值的态势...............................................................123.2人民币实际有效汇率升值的