黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域 农业 生态安全 预警 分析

364()Vol.36No.420084JournalofNorthwestA&FUniversity(Nat.Sci.Ed.)April200831,1,2(1,712100;2,712100)[]70,22(PSR)(AHP)(Delphi),,,19382005,20151938,;1958,;19751985,;1995,20052015,,,2020,[];;;;[]S181[]A[]167129387(2008)0420075208Pre2warninganalysisofagriculturalecologysecurityoftheZhifanggouValleyintheLoessHillyregionLIFen1,WANGJi2jun1,2(1CollegeofResourceandEnvironment,NorthwestA&FUniversity,Yangling,Shaanxi712100,China;2InstituteofSoilandWaterConservation,ChineseAcademyofSciencesandMinistryofWaterResources,Yangling,Shaanxi712100,China)Abstract:ObjectiveThestudyprovidedecologysecuritypre2warningandsecurityconstructionwithscientificbasisintheLoessHillyregion.MethodBasedonanalysisofecologicalsecuritystateandimpactfactorsofZhifanggouvalleyduring70yearsandPress2State2Response(PSR)model,pre2warningindexsys2temofagriculturalecologysecuritywasestablished.AHPandDelphimethoolswereusedtodeterminein2dicatorweight;integratedvalueofecologysecuritywascalculatedbyintegratedindexmethod;developmentaxiswasusedtoexplainfivemodelsofecologysecuritypre2warning;ecologicalsecurityconditionsfrom1938to2005werequantitativelyassessedanddevelopingtendencyin2015waspredicted.ResultThere2sultsindicatedthatsecurityconditionoftheZhifanggouValleylayinbluelightregionandtherewasnoneedforpre2warningin1938;andtheblacklightregionneededpre2warningofdeteriorationvelocityin1958;andtheredlightregionneededillconditionpre2warningin1975and1985;andinyellowlightregionin1995,itcontinuedtodevelopinbenignstateandnoneedforpre2warningin2005and2015,butwithpresentdevelopmenttendency,theauthorpredictspeasantspopulationdensitywillbeinpre2warningstatein2020.ConclusionResearchresultsareconsistentwithconcretecondition,andtheindexsystemand3[]2007209212[](2006BAD09B07);(40771082);(SW05102)[](1984-),,,,E2mail:[e-mail][](1964-),,,,E2mail:[e-mail]2warningmodelsofecologysecuritycanbeusedintheLoessHillyregion.Keywords:LoessHillyregion;theZhifanggouValley;ecologicalsecurity;cressetmodel;pre2warninganalysis,,,,,[124],,2090,,[326],,,,19382015,,,1,,[7],,8.27km2,238.06km/km2,10681309m,8.8,500mm,,,,1463mm[728],1938,11.4/km2,13.4%,,1449kg/hm2,,2040,,51.5%,,3.5hm2,,416kg/hm2,,,1973,,,,,,20,,200568.2%,1700t/(km2a),16.23.9,1.68hm2,4771kg/hm2,2448,22.1,,,,,[9]:,,,,,,,,,,2.2,:(1);(2);(3);(4);(5);(6)67()36,70,,(1)[10212]1Table1Pre2warningindexsystemofagri2ecologysecurityinvalleyoftheLoessHillyregion(O)Objectlayer(U)Criterialayer(T)Indexlayer(Wi)WeightPre2warningofagri2ecologysecurityinvalleyoftheLoessHillyregion(1.0000)(U1)Ecologicalenvironment(0.3951)(A1)Peasantspopulationdensity0.034137(A2)Averageareasofbasicfarmland0.029(A3)Averageannualprecipitation0.024773(A4)Ratioofforestandgrassareas0.166456(A5)Successionalstagesofcommunity0.042868(A6)Soilcorrosionmodulus0.097866(U2)Socialeconomy(0.4887)(B1)Ratioofnaturalpopulationgrowth0.055761(B2)Percapitaoutputofgrain0.122713(B3)Averageannualnetincomeofpeasants0.231693(B4)Ratioofmarketablefarmproduce0.03978(B5)Engelcoefficientofruralresidents0.013732(B6)Averageeducationallevelsofrurallaborforce0.025168(U3)Integratedfunction(0.1162)(C1)Landusestructureofagriculture,forestryandanimalhusbandry0.060075(C2)Ratioofperunitareayieldofgrainproductionpotential0.012062(C3)Proportionofagriculturalregionaloutput2input0.007431(C4)Proportionofindustrialandallkindsofsidelinetototalincomeofpeasants0.008057(C5)Correlationdegreeofagriculturalindustrialchainandresources0.02858533.1,,[10,13],,,(1)[11]Xi(i=1,2,,17),Xj(j=1,2,3,4,5,6,1938,1958,1975,1985,19952005),Xij=WiSij(1):Xij,Wi,Sij(2),2Ej=17i=1WiXij(2):Ej270Table2Agri2ecologicalsecurityintegrationvalueofZhifanggouvalleyduring70yearsYearEcologicalenvironmentSocialeconomyIntegratedfunctionIntegratedvalue19383.3408081.9591050.6781045.97801719580.8252881.4957190.1162102.43721719751.1077051.5766480.2197322.90408519851.5921352.0677430.2843333.94421119952.5291522.3901860.6574315.57676920053.0662122.8608030.9382516.8652663.23.2.1,,,37()774:,7:(1),80/km2(2)(FAO)[14],0.1hm2,393kg,,,0.1hm2,393kg(3)60%,2500t/(km2a)[15216](4),1985300,19862000650,20012000(5)[7],()16.823.2.2,[526,13],,5,[0.00,9.00],,(3)70,,:(Ej)2.5,,1958;2.5Ej4,,19751985;4Ej5.6,;5.6Ej7.5,,19382005,(EP)3Table3Pre2warningcriticalvalueandstateofagri2ecologicalsecurityintheLoessHillyregionGradeStateIndicatorlightThresholdvalueEPCriticalvalueVerybadBlacklight[0.00,2.50]2.50WorseRedlight(2.50,4.00]4.00NormalYellowlight(4.00,5.60)5.00NiceBluelight[5.60,7.50)5.60PerfectGreenlight[7.50,9.00]7.50,,5,[526]::,,,,:,,,:,,,:,,,,:,,,3.33.3.1t1,t2,T=t2-t1;E(t),EP,EPt3.3.2,5,5[2,17](1),E(t)EP(3)31,E(t)(2.50,4.00],,,EP=4.00;,E(t),[0,2.50],,,EP=2.5087()361Fig.1Illconditionsketchmapofecologicalsecurity(2),,{E(t)EP,E(t2)E(t1)}(4)32,E(t)[5.60,7.50),,;,E(t1),E(t),,E(t1)-E(t)0,,;,E(t)E(t2),E(t),,E(t2)-E(t)0,,2Fig.2Deteriorationtendencysketchmapofecologicalsecurity(3),,{E(t)EP,E(t2)E(t1),|E(t2)-E(t1)|/(t2-t1)EP}(5):EP=1/10,(1/);EP=4.003,E(t)7.00,,,,E(t)E(t1)=2.00,,10,,3Fig.3Deteriorationvelocitysketchmapofecologicalsecurity(4)E(t),7.50(),5.60(),4.00(