福建省旅游业发展与区域经济增长研究

华侨大学硕士学位论文福建省旅游业发展与区域经济增长研究姓名：王晶申请学位级别：硕士专业：数量经济学指导教师：胡日东2007060119982006312GDPGDPAbstractTourism,asanintegratedindustrywithsignificantlycorrelation,whichhasanimportantimpactonimprovingindustrialstructureandleadingothereconomicsectorsdevelopment.Aftertourismhasbeenestablishedasanewareaofeconomicincreaseofnationaleconomyin1998,travelingeconomymovesforwardbydoublefiguresratesofriseeveryyearinourcountry,alreadypresentspillarindustryinthenationaleconomy.Wediscusstherelationandfunctionbetweenthedevelopmentoftourismandregionaleconomicgrowth,theaimistoresearchthefunctionandfunctionmechanismfromtourismtotheincreasingofregioneconomyfundamentally.Thisisnotonlyadvantageoustoscientificallyformulatetourismdevelopmentalpolicy,givepromotionintourismdevelopment,butalsogoodatadjustingindustrialstructure,promotingtheregioneconomicdevelopment.TheconstructionoftheeconomiczoononthewestcoastoftheTaiwanStraitswasincludedintheplanofthe11thFive-Year-PlanperiodinMarch,2006.Inthesameyear,thenationaltourismbureaulistedtheconstructionoftheeconomiczoononthewestcoastoftheTaiwanStraitsastheheadofthenational12keytravelingareasintheplan,whichbringsagoodopportunityforeconomicdevelopmentandthetourismofFujianProvince.TakeFujianProvinceasanexample,thispapercombinesthetheoryanalysiswiththepositiveanalysis,thequantitativeanalysisandthequalitativeanalysis,thetimeseriesreturnandinput-outputmethodtostudytourismandtheregionaleconomicgrowthsynthetically.ThroughestablishingVARmodelbasedonthetourismandGDPofFujianProvince,hadGranger-CausalityAnalysisinboth,theresearchfocusedonthefunctionmechanismsontourismdevelopmenttotheregionaleconomicgrowthindirect,indirectandinducedstages,andthroughthemultipleeffectstotheincomeeffect,theincomeimpact,foreigncurrencyreceptionimpact,employmentimpactandindustrylinkageimpactoftourisminFujianProvince,analyzedprimaryfactorsintheinfluenceonthefunctionabouttourismtotheregionaleconomicgrowth,putforwardtherelatedpolicyproposal.Accordingtotheaboveanalysis,wecanfindthatthereisbi-directionalGranger-CausalitybetweentourismandGDPofFujianProvince,theoverallfunctionontourismdevelopmenttotheregionaleconomicgrowthisobvious.Incomeandforeigncurrencyreceptioneffectareprominent,industrylinkageimpactneedtobeimproved.InordertofullydisplaydirectandrelatedindustrialimpetusfunctionintheFujianProvinceeconomyformthetourism,thispaperproposespolicysuggestiontoadjustindustrialstructure,expandthewholeeconomicalscale,promotetourismdevelopment,displaydirectactionoftourismandextendtourismlinkageimpact,unceasinglyexcavateindirectfunctionofthetourism.Theinnovationofthepaperliesinstudyingtherelationsbetweentourismdevelopmentandtheregionaleconomicgrowth,adoptmanykindsofmethodinpositiveresearchofFujianProvince.Moreover,throughestablishingeconometricmodel,combinethreeindustrysurveycomprehensivelyaboutthemechanismandtheconcreteeffectontourismdevelopmentandtheregionaleconomicgrowth,providethebasistothepolicyformulation.Keywords:FujianProvincetourismregionaleconomicgrowtheconomiceffect11996208090198619981220062521202·U·-20801999GS2001LS[1-2]-[3][4][5]——[6]GDP9GDP93[7]14.3110.20100111.0515.915[8-9][10]174·19701993(SNA93)TSA[11-12]WTO/OMTOECDWTTC200031TSA[13][14]GDPGDP[15][16][17][9]5[18]GDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDP61.11.1123GDP11627[9]12819921436247452940124720[6]349GNPGDPNI(B.H.Archer1974)[7]1011·200611242006152.11991-2006%%19913334.9821.4428.4535127.1719923811.4914.2939.4746733.0519934152.698.9546.831134142.8319944368.455.2073.23165545.9419954638.656.1987.33209826.7719965112.7510.22102.00248718.5419975758.7912.64120.74311225.1319986347.8410.23126.02343910.5119997279.5614.68140.99400216.3720008344.3914.63162.24451912.9220018901.296.67177.92499510.5320029790.839.99203.85556611.4320039166.21-6.38174.064882-12.29200410903.8218.96257.39684040.11200512029.2310.32292.96768612.37200612500.003.91339.50893516.2520072.120057686292.9613.82%20071182006121.253.9%49916.6%22219.7%339.515.9%13.915.0%623017.9%893516.3%5.64.07%2.2GDP1997199819992000200120022003200420052006(%)25.110.516.412.910.511.4-12.240.112.316.2GDP(%)9.37.87.68.48.39.11010.110.410.7(%)11.38.98.59.98.910.212.811.511.6—-20-10010203040501997199819992000200120022003200420052006%GDP%%)2.1GDPGDP2.22.12003GDP13——2.31991-2006%GDP%199121617.835127.171.62199226638.146733.051.75199334634.41134142.833.27199446759.4165545.943.54199558478.1209826.773.59199667884.6248718.543.66199774462.6311225.134.18199878345.2343910.514.39199982067.5400216.374.88200089468.1451912.925.05200197314.8499510.535.132002105172.3556611.435.292003117251.94882-12.294.162004136515.0684040.115.012005182321.0768612.374.222006209407.0893516.254.2720072.32.290199320022003200310%140.001.002.003.004.005.006.001991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006GDP%2.2GDP——70%15WTTC8.4%20108.7%[11]1978180.92.6320061.25339.515.89%1978129——13200071150564.228003364.24.73%[19]2002597.722980WTTC1515[11]——16WTTC14.3[11]1723°33′-28°20′115°50′-120°40′62.96%500013.63535332418.3%1:6.21721100010080%5318200514713210194532A4A2583193538134275A20062006197501.6313.4%885.