能源安全约束下的湖南工业化战略选择

湖南大学硕士学位论文能源安全约束下的湖南工业化战略选择姓名：张敏申请学位级别：硕士专业：世界经济学指导教师：高建良20061010IIIAbstractEconomicgrowthisatthecenterofeconomicresearchtopicsindustrializationistoachieveeconomicgrowthofthemainpath.AsthecentralpartofChina’sprovince,howtheexistingenergyconstraintsunderasuitablechoiceoftheprovince'sindustrializationanddevelopmentroad,thearticleisfocusedontheproblemtobesolved.Inthispaper,variouscountriesandregions,especiallyChina'sindustrializationprocess,basedontheprocessofindustrialization,energyrestraints.Investigationandthetypicalcomprehensivesurveycombiningempiricalanalysisandnormativeanalysis,qualitativeanalysisandquantitativeanalysisofthecombinationofmethods,Hunanenergysecurityrestrictions,DiscussionofHunanlaunchedanewroadtoindustrializationwasinevitable.EnergysecuritythroughresearchundertheconstraintsofindustrializationinHunan,Hunan-depthanalysisofthedevelopmentofnew-typeindustrializationoffactors,whichconformstotheactualsituationofHunanpolicyproposalswithaviewtoHunanroadofindustrialization,willfollow.Firstlyfromtheindustrializedcountriesandregionsinthecourseofdevelopment,ofdifferentcountriesanddifferentroadofindustrialization,andacomparativeanalysisonthisbasis,focusesontheenergy-constrainedoptimalpathofindustrializationchoice.Analysisthattheexistingenergyconstraints,Chinamusttakeanintensivegrowthinthemain,economicefficiencyasthecenter,comparativeadvantageandtheadvantageafter,andthecityofappropriatesynchronization,andoptimizationoftheindustrialstructure,theultimateachievementofsustainabledevelopmentpathofindustrialization.ThefocusofthispaperisonHunanindustrializationandenergysecurityforanalysis.ByHunanindustrystatusandthestatusofurbanization,industrializationHunandiscussedthespecificcharacteristicsandtheroadofdevelopment;HunanonenergyproductionandenergyconsumptioncomparedtoforecastfutureenergysupplyanddemandtrendsinHunan.Takentogether,asarelativelackofresourcesinthecentralinlandprovinceofHunanastheeconomycontinuestodevelop,demandforenergycontinuestoincrease,economicdevelopment,energyconstraintsfacingthecontradictionswillbecomemorepronounced.Finally,thefirsttwochapters,onthebasisoftheenergysecurityconstraintsolvingHunannewpathofindustrializationoptimalchoiceofspecificmeasures,IIIincludingtheadjustmentoftheindustrialstructure,Establishmentandtheeasterncoastalareaslinkedtotheproductionchain,thedevelopmentofhigh-techindustriesandthetransformationoftraditionalindustriesboth.Acceleratetheenergyindustry;adheretothesustainabledevelopmentofurbanroads,tooptimizethestructureanddistribution,andindustriallead.Keywords:Hunan,industrialization,strategy,energysecurity2.1···················································202.21996-2003·····················································213.1······················································263.21960-1995·······························263.32000-2004··············································273.41978-2006GDP········································283.51978-2003·······················283.6····················································································293.7·····································································313.8·····································································321□______2□“√”111.118“”·1943“”1949~19781957197819703.253.641.965.990.84219781978~200220028.56.428%15.4%48.2%51.1%23.7%33.5%3020037.4%31%30%27%25%40%GDP4%(GDP)11.331.51.52.172.673.511.585%SO230%CO22090GDP6%~8%20702131.21.2.1118[1][2]4[3]219314~61.5~3.50.5~1.51[4]10163GDP19%36%280210010%20%[5]1001950~1970GNP3005008001000[3]8GDP53[6][7][8][9][10][11](1)906(2)10[12][13]1.2.22070197311.9%5%4%~5%2%1974IEA1859——195031%200337.3%19509.7%200323.9%57.7%26.5%720041.751.1741.5%19982732.26200411700IEA2060%MichaelLandehrEberhardTochem[14]TPCTPCTFCJBielecki[15]2070DieterHelm[16]SjakSmuldersMiakieldeNooij[17]GDPRAAmanoSvanNorden[18]8ShankarK.KarkiMchaelD.MannHosseinSslehfar[19]DanyelReicheMischaBechberger[20]RESRESJ.PernerA.Seelger[21]2130EUGASAadCorreljeCobyvanderLinde[22]MamdouchG.Salameh[23]21KymAndersonChaoYangPeng[24]EricD.larson[25]EricD.larsonPeterNolanAlanShipmanHuaichuanRu[26]9[27][28][29]21[30][31]“”[32][33](FCM)[34]10[35]MARKAL199520501.31.41.51.112.1222.12.1.1(H.Chenery)(Simon.Kuznets)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)()()()GDP132.1.2??(EngelsLaw)()1943(1949)14182.1.315162.2;2.2.11718252.2.2182060~70192.32.3.11.GDPEGDPGDP197820IND1978~2002EGDPINDLEGDPLINDADFLEGDPLIND1%LEGDPLIND]68.0)2([]67.1)1([33.065.2)20021979(−=+=+∆−=−∆ARARLINDLEGDP-0.33LEGDP∆1%LIND∆0.33%2.1TLIND-0.3285650.291038-1.1289420.2730C2.6473262.2735161.1644190.2587AR(1)1.6695280.2297877.2652030.0000AR(2)-0.6831160.239857-2.8480100.01030.9950942.2568970.9943190.3466430.026127-4.2949000.012970-4.09742353.391350F1284.519DW1.3465600.0002.2002200320041.191.421.60200051GDP20011.3820022002200320041.411.431.442.2212.21996-2003199619982000200220032003/1996tce/t1.3921.291.181.061.083.6gce/kWh4104043923833801.1tce/t10.8810.119.569.309.172.4tce/t5.5725.0394.6134.4414.3733.4kgce/t1751681621591502.2kgce/29.425.625.024.023.23.3kgce/t13