中国工业企业全要素生产率的前沿估计方法比较

351Vol.35No.120122JournalofShijiazhuangUniversityofEconomicsFeb．20122011－09－071981—、。512521TFP。1999—2009、、OPLPTFP。GMMF061.2A1007-6875201201-0025-08、“”TFP。。Massimoetal.2008TFPTFP。。1。1DEAFDH－—Massimoetal.2008。1//。①。。。TFP1993200020022005123、2008、2007DEA4520076。2007DEA7TFP。、20071995—2002378。TFP。20081998—2005TFP9。20091999—2003OPTFP10。YuMiaojie2010TFP11。。。351TFP1999—2009。、。Cobb－Douglas。C－DYit=AitLαitKβit1YitLitKit。AitTFP。1yit=αlit+βkit+uit2yit、litkitYit、LitKit。Ait。2。TFPSimultaneityBiasSelectivityandAttritionBias。Simultaneity。。TFPOLS②。1944MarschakAn-drews194412。2yit=αlit+βkit+槇ωit+eit3槇ωit。eit。。。。。。。1.2槇ωit。槇ωitt槇ωit。2.OlleyandPakesOPOlleyandPakes1996consistentsemi－parametricestima-tor。13。OlleyPakesKit+1=1－δKit+Iit4KI。③。槇ω槇ω。iit=it槇ωkit5h=i－1槇ω槇ωit=h1iitkit6yit=β·lit+γ·kit+htiitkit+eit7·62·。it=γ·kit+htiitkit8it槇it。yit=β·lit+t+eit9。槇it。。Vit=yit－β^·litVit=γ·kit+gt－1－γkit－1+μit+eit10g·。t－1kt－1。k。。10。1。3.LevinsohnandPetrinOlleyandPakes。。。LevinsohnPetrin2003。。LevinsohnPetrin14。4.GMMBlundellandBond1998。。。t－115。槇ωGMM。non－random。。OlleyandPakes1996。SurvivalProbability16。BellmanVitKitαitωit=MaxΦSupIit≥0∏itKitαitωit－CIit+ρEVit+1Kit+1αit+1ωit+1|Jit11πit·C·ρE·|JittJit。BellmanΦ。χit=1ωit≥槇ωitKitait0{12χ10。槇ωProbitPrχit=1|Jit－1·72·351=Prχit=1|ωit－1ω^itkit+1=φiit－1kit－113Probit10Vit=γ·kit+gt－1－γjit－1P^t－1+μit+eit14gt－1kt－1P^t－1。。、1999—2009。1999—2009。、、、0。2。2lnY7392112.521.272.3619.01lnY_add7322611.181.302.2717.29lnM7392112.221.300.0318.93lnK7392110.561.033.8918.05lnL739217.721.180.5912.15lnI325479.092.320.1916.84age7392118.2113.861.0059.00、。。。、。3。3TFPFElnK0.283＊＊＊87.140.411＊＊＊51.010.249＊＊＊72.040.264＊＊＊52.510.413＊＊＊34.050.304＊＊＊52.34lnL0.512＊＊＊86.370.555＊＊＊37.710.527＊＊＊82.990.510＊＊＊87.220.504＊＊＊34.220.471＊＊＊72.35N739211884955072729251884954079OPLPlnK0.350＊＊＊11.020.384＊＊＊7.460.344＊＊＊9.960.332＊＊＊50.000.289＊＊＊7.550.324＊＊＊15.85lnL0.400＊＊＊63.270.455＊＊＊24.590.401＊＊＊40.910.116＊＊＊27.980.112＊＊＊6.720.141＊＊＊24.25N320161126320753739211884955072t＊＊＊1%。C－D。OPC－DC－DOPC－DC－D。OlleyPakes1996、Biesebro-·82·eck2005Loecker2005OPsimultaneitybiasselectionbi-as。LPOP。LPOP。。。。“”3OPC－D。。3TFP1。—④TFPTFPLP6.56、OPOLSTFP。TFP0OPTFP0.3309TFP5.2061。1TFPTFP4。TFP。LPTFP。TFPTFP。4TFPTFP_OLSTFP_FETFP_OPTFP_LPTFP_OLS1TFP_FE0.99251TFP_OP0.99880.99441TFP_LP0.94190.93180.95410.43190.45330.43010.350010.22940.20620.22160.19500.38081·92·351TFP。1999—2009TFP15TFP8TFP10TFP2⑤。21999—2009TFP1999—200915、、TFP4.7%、3.96%3.67%。。。、。。。30TFP、1999—2009TFP、、。4。41999—2009TFPTFPLP%%%4.373.748.3320.624.482.117.007.474.532.4810.6610.263.751.9310.9311.674.512.4416.149.774.003.926.8020.703.961.737.4512.464.563.4531.3820.534.123.356.0817.984.074.2716.1223.593.583.109.9811.414.282.9620.3420.924.055.1919.1625.124.232.655.0915.334.632.1211.1413.304.132.176.3712.344.143.5321.0018.804.325.0516.1435.964.201.406.7214.833.974.3713.2314.284.413.0213.8225.183.784.337.6825.193.982.895.508.854.682.5116.8714.344.373.9416.5020.454.443.4023.8520.163.561.0110.4411.654.241.465.876.034.381.899.3211.284.413.6910.9910.454TFPTFP。TFP、、、TFP、、、TFP2008。·03·、、。TFP。TFP。⑥17。、1.OP。OPLPLPOP。2.Massimo2008TFP、、、。3.TFP、。1999—2009。TFP。①。②。③perpetualinventoriesmethodPIM。。④。⑤2。。⑥。。〔1〕．J．200073－15．〔2〕．、J．200263－13．〔3〕．1979－2004J．2005651－60．〔4〕．J．20083933－959．〔5〕．、J．2007591－100．〔6〕．J．2007252－59．〔7〕．J．2007584－95．〔8〕．1995－2002J．2007749－56．〔9〕．J．20084809－826．〔10〕．Z．No．061·13·3512009．〔11〕YUMIAOJIE．ProcessingTradeFirmísProductivityandTariffReductionsEvidencefromChineseProductsZ．CCERworkingpaperseriesNo．E20100072010．〔12〕MARSCHAKJANDREWSW．RandomSimultaneousE-quationsandtheTheoryofProductionJ．Econometrica194412143－205．〔13〕OLLEYSPAKESA．TheDynamicsOfProductivityInTheTelecommunicationsEquipmentIndustryJ．Econo-metrica1996641263－1297．〔14〕LEVINSOHNJPETRINA．EstimatingProductionFunc-tionsusingInputstoControlforUnobservablesJ．Re-viewofEconomicStudies200370317－341．〔15〕LEVINSOHNJPETRINAPOIBP．ProductionFunc-tionEstimationinStatausingInputstoControlforUnob-servablesJ．StataJournal200342113－123．〔16〕BlundellRSBond．Initialconditionsandmomentre-strictionsindynamicpaneldatamodelsJ．JournalofE-conometrics199887115－143．〔17〕．、J．20061148－59．TheComparisonofFrontierMethodforEstimatingChina＇sTotalFactorProductivityLIYanGuangdongUniversityofFinanceGuangzhouGuangdong510521AbstractAimedatresolvingtheSimultaneitybiasandSelectivityandAttritionBiasinthetraditionalmethodforfirm-levelTFPestimationaarrayofproposalsareraisedandboileddowntoseveralestimatetechnologies．Thepa-perprovideseconomicresearcherswithanup-to-dateoverviewofissuesandrelevantsolutionsassociatedwiththischoice．Usingafirm-leveldatasetfor199-2009includingmostofChina＇senterprisesthispaperestimatetheirTFPbyapplyingvariousparametricandsemi-parametricmethodssuchasOLSFEOPandLP．Wefoundthatsemi-parametrictechnologycansolvetheinherenteconometricproblemintraditionalmethod．KeywordsTFPheterogeneousfirmssemi-parametricestimationproductionfunctionGMM·23·