搜索
华中科技大学硕士学位论文东风汽车公司价值评估姓名：夏铭申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：王诗才20090426I5.1720082.93IIAbstractWithChina’scapitalmarketgettingmoreandmoreperfect,securitiesinvestmentgettingrational,theinvestconceptdependingonvalueanalysisofthecompanyhasgainedmoreattention.Thecompanyvaluationisanintegratedcapitalvaluationandalsoajudgeandestimationprocess,whichmainobeysorserversforthecompanyoftransferingorexchangingpropertyright.Accurateevaluationofacompany’struevalueandanalysisoftherelationshipbetweencompanyvalueandcompany’smarketpricehavebecomethepremierconcernofallentrepreneursandventurecapitalists.ThethesisshalldiscusstheevaluationofDongfengAutomobileCo.,LTD(DFAC)’svaluewithcasestudiesqualitativelyandquantitatively.MacroscopiceconomicandbusinessenvironmentisfirstlystudiedwithcomparisonofthecompetitivenessofDFACindomesticmarkets.Secondly,baseonfinancialdata,thisthesisanalyzefinancialratiotogainDFAC’sfinancialprofitability,growthcapacity,solvencyandoperationalcapacity.Then,aftercomparativeanalysisonlikelyvaluationmodels,thethesischosetheFCFF(FreeCashFlowofFirm)modeltoevaluaterealvalueofthecompany.FinallywegaintheresultthatvalueofDFAC`sequityis5.17yuanpersharewhilesharepriceis2.93yuan,whichprovethevalidityoftheanalyticalresults.Finally,bystudyonvaluationofDFAC,thisthesiscombinedtheoreticalanalysisandcaseanalysistofindoutapplicablemodeltovalueChineseautomotiveindustrycompanyandbeareferenceforinvestorandmanager.KeyWords:Enterprisevalue;Valuation;FCFF□□“√”111.1[1]21.2,1.2.120·(1906)[2](1930)[3]2050··(1958)[4](1961)[5]-(MM)[6][7](1977)3[8](1980)[9](1991)EVA·[10]EVA2090EVA[11]2080···[12](1973)[13](1986)[14](1984)[15][16](1990)——(1995)[17]1.2.24(2000)[18](2000)[19](2004)[20](2005)[21](2005)[22](2006)[23](2007)5[24](2007)[25]1.3——62()[26]2.1[27][28]72.2“”P/EP/EP/EP/E8P/B2.3(intrinsicvalue)[29](DDM)(DCF)2.3.1DDM()=∑∞=+1)1(tttrDPS(2-1)DPSt=r=t?89[30]1)GordonGordon=grDPS-(2-2)DPSrg2)n2-1=+nnnnnttttrgrDPSrDPS)1()(/)1(11+-++=+==∑(2-3)DPSt=tr=()g=ng%ngnnt10gn=nrn=(2-3)()3)2-22222111)1)(()1()1)(1()1()1()1(11100nnnnnnntntnnnttntttatargrgEPSrrrEPSrgEPSP+-×+++++×++×+=∑∑=-=+==ΧΧΧ(2-4)EPSt=tDPSt=tga=(n1)ga0n1n2gn11gn=IIa=IIn=r=rn=-[31]4)=rDPS(2-5)DPS=r=()2.3.2(DCF)[32]()()[12]122-1WACC():()[12](FCFEFreeCashFlowofEquity)(FCFFFreeCashFlowofFirm)1)FCFE(FreeCashFlowofEquity)(FCFE)(FCFE)=+---+(d)(FCFE)=+(1-d)(-)-(1-d)(QV)QV=∑∞=+1)1(tttrFCFE(2-6)FCFEt;13r,(CAPM))(fmefrrrr-×+=b(2-7)rfßerm2)FCFF(FreeCashFlowofFirm)(1986)[33]()()FCFF=FCFE+(1-)+-+FCFF=EBIT(1-)+--FCFFFCFE∑∞=+=1)1(tttWACCFCFFQV(2-8)FCFFttWACC(Weightedaveragecostofcapital)[34]WACC=×(÷)+×(÷)3)FCFEFCFF:FCFEFCFFFCFFFCFE14FCFFFCFE(),FCFFFCFFFCFEFCFFFCFEFCFEFCFEFCFEFCFEFCFFFCFF[35][36]2.41)152)3)DDMDCFDDM[37]()1633.13.1.1(“”)1999628727(600006)2008[38]MPVSUVBCL49100-370IIIIV“”“”“”8“”3.1.21,000,000,000700,000,0002004417281031072,000,000,0003-1(2008-12-31)(%)60.100120,2000.2785573000.2555100.1703410.1613220.1272550.1002010.0701410.0671340.062124()1020081603703-119992008()(19992008)540181203-219992008()(19992008)3-319992008()(19992008)3.1.32020190.750.758GDPGDPGDP53-4()1041061331431791782042492682.6%24.6%8.1%24.8%-0.4%14.5%22.1%7.6%050100150200250300-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.33-52000-2008F()203-2()20032008200320042005200620072008()682,078808,018853,624950,8951,116,4001,175,465()66,04860,52785,596126,163150,041170,7179.7%7.5%10.0%13.3%13.4%14.5%18.5%5.6%11.4%17.4%5.3%-8.4%41.4%47.4%18.9%13.8%()-200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%3-62003-2008()(3-2)20039.7%200814.5%213-3()20032008200320042005200620072008()1,075,4541,312,6521,272,5361,529,9682,320,4102,396,986()96,313122,08788,38996,331136,973162,5769.0%9.3%6.9%6.3%5.9%6.8%22.1%-3.1%20.2%51.7%3.3%26.8%-27.6%9.0%42.2%18.7%()-500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,000-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%3-72003-2008()(3-3)7%200520072008315%2008“”5“315”“315”“”“”31520082012“”“”201230200722——“”120.5%“”20%“315”“315”——3“”15“”“”3.21)---2)---3)---4)---3.2.123:=÷(3-1)=÷(3-2)()3-4520082008200820072007(2)1.371.341.371.411.35(1)0.981.031.071.041.05(2007-2008)3-85(3-4)1()24=÷(3-3)=÷(+)(3-4)=÷(+)(3-5)3-52001200820012002200320042005200620072008(2)1.441.452.101.991.381.391.411.37(1)1.191.241.901.711.081.101.040.980.360.450.370.390.520.540.540.560.570.830.590.631.091.181.171.250.430.390.260.270.370.350.350.36(20012008)3-920012008(3-5)50%40%200426%200136%200856%455%(2)(1),253.2.23-62001200820012002200320042005200620072008(%)12.12%8.79%10.75%7.63%4.46%4.29%3.65%1.92%(%)21.38%20.20%18.47%18.63%15.29%16.67%16.19%16.84%(%)10.86%10.66%9.59%6.84%4.67%4.20%4.25%2.61%(%)18.17%18.27%15.64%10.84%8.68%9.03%9.35%5.96%(20012008)3-1020012008(3-6)=÷(3-6)=()÷(3-7)(ROA)=÷(3-8)(ROE)=÷(3-9)268200410%20083%3.2.3=÷(3-10)=÷(3-11)=÷(3-12)=÷(3-13)=÷(3-14)3-7200220082002200320042005200620072008()51.8926.8215.6816.2815.9316.6617.31()11.049.138.286.925.566.025.40()2.021.241.161.411.321.551.78()3.663.715.015.685.496.687.34()1.210.890.901.040.971.161.30(2002008)273-1120022008(3-7)200416630%3.2.4=÷(3-15)=÷(3-16