economy

1Someinvestorswerecallingforacoordinatedcurrencyinterventionwhenofficialsfromtheworld'stopeconomiesmetrecently.Insteadtheygotanagreementtoconsultcloselywitheachotheronexchange-ratepolices.最近，当来自世界经济排名国家官员会晤时，一些投资者呼吁协调货币干预政策。然而，各国只是在汇率政策问题上达成一个协议，决定彼此之间保持密切磋商。Nobigdeal?U.S.officialsseeitdifferently,framingtheresolutionasanimportantcommitmentthatcouldhelppreventacascadeofglobalexchange-ratedepreciations.这些磋商没什么大不了的，但是美国官员却并不这么认为。美国将达成的决策看作是一项能有效地遏制全球汇率贬值风险的重大举措。Therewon'tbeanysurprises.Wewon'tseecountriesactinginawaythatcouldtriggerthekindofcompetitivedevaluationthatleadstopotentiallyacurrencywar,U.S.TreasurySecretaryJacobLewsaidTuesday.在周二的时候，美国财政部长雅各布.卢说道：“不用奇怪，我们不会看到国家间竞相货币贬值，引发各国货币战争的局面了。”U.S.officialspushedthelanguageearlyintheG-20talksaspartoftheirefforttopreemptthetypeofvolatilitythathasrockedmarketsoverthelastyearamidhistoriccapitaloutflowsfromemergingmarkets.在G-20峰会上，美国官员较早地这样表态，也是美国抢占从新兴市场国家流出的资本的一种努力，这些资本曾造成了去年经济市场的汇率动荡。InvestorsareparticularlyconcernedChinawillreverttocurrencydevaluationasitseconomyslowsfurther.Meanwhile,EuropeandJapanarechartingunprecedentedpathsintonegative-interest-rateterritoryinabidtoreviveanemicoutput,policiesthatdepreciatetheircurrencies.InvestorsworrythatChina—orevenJapan—couldsparkadangerouscascadeoftit-for-tatcurrencyinterventionsaroundtheglobeifauthoritiessuddenlydevalue.投资者密切关注，认为若中国的经济进一步放缓的话，中国政府将会诉诸于降低汇率的办法。在此期间，欧洲和日本也正在努力刺激出口/使不景气的出口/疲软乏力的出口复兴，制定前所未有的货币贬值等低利率政策。投资者们担心，如果中国或是日本当权者突然让货币贬值的话，可能引发全球范围内的尖锐的/针锋相对的货币干预浪潮。TheG-20accordmattersinafewways.G-20峰会就以下事项达成了一致。First,peerpressuremaymakegovernmentsthinktwice,withofficialsawaretheywillfaceabrowbeatingbyfellowG-20membersiftheyembarkonpoliciesseenasstealinggrowthfromothereconomies.首先，来自G-20参加国的压力可能使得各国政府三思而行，各国官员也意思到，若是本国出台了被视为偷窃其他经济体经济增长的政策的话，他们将面临G-20成员国的联合制裁威胁/风险。Second,dialoguecanhelpcountriescraftstrongerpoliciesasofficialsshareexperienceandalternatives.第二，各国官员们分享彼此的经验和应对举措，使得会话协商能够帮助各国建立更加强健有力的经济政策。Third,thecommitmentismeanttosendasignaltomarketsaboutaconsensusonthedangerousriskscurrencyvolatilityrepresentstotheglobaleconomy.第三，各国的努力向市场发送了这样一个信号，各国政府对于造成全球经济面临风险局面的汇率波动因素，达成了一致看法。Anddeliberationscouldhelpcountriesbettercommunicatetheirintentionssopoliciesaren'tmisinterpretedbyinvestors.并且，各国的自主商议能够帮助国家更好的阐述政策的目的，以免政府发布的政策不被投资者正确解读。TheG-20commitmentisn'tbinding.Norisanyformalconsultationprocessoutlined,leavingittothediscretionofauthorities.Butinaworldofrisingvulnerabilities,itisonepromisetheyallhopeeachotherwillkeep.G-20成员国做出的承诺并未签署文件，也没有正式的列出磋商的过程，一切都由每个成员国自主裁决。但是面对日益复苏乏力/疲乏衰弱的全球经济，各成员国也希望彼此之间信守这些承诺。Source:TheWallStreetJournal2Theslowdowninglobaltradecomesduringaperiodthathasthepotentialtobeagoldenagefortradeliberalization.AfterfiveyearsofgruelingnegotiationstheUS,Japanand10othereconomieslastOctoberwrappedupthevastTrans-PacificPartnership.Itcoverssome40percentoftheglobaleconomy,willseetariffsfallbetweentwoofthethreebiggesteconomiesandextendsthe20-yearexperimentinregionalintegrationthatistheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreementintothePacificRim.ThereisstilluncertaintyoverwhethertheTPPwillevertakeforce.ItsratificationfacessignificantpoliticalobstaclesintheUS,wheremanyinCongressremainskepticalandjusttwoofthesevenRepublicanandDemocraticUSpresidentialcandidatessupportthedeal.YettheTPPisfarfromaloneasanendeavorinliberalization.NegotiationsattheWorldTradeOrganizationtoreachanagreementtolifttradebarrierstoagriculturalandmanufacturedgoodshavelongbeenstalled.WTOmemberseffectivelykilledoffthelatentDohaRoundoftradetalkslastyear,openingthedoor,somebelieve,formorefocusedactiononspecificindustriesandsectorsrangingfrominvestmenttoecommerce.TheWTO'sfailurehasledseveralmajoreconomiestostrikeregionalorsectoralagreements.OfficialsfromtheEUandUSlastweekgatheredinBrusselsforafreshroundoftransatlantictradenegotiationsaimedatremovingtariffandregulatorybarriers.China,IndiaandAustraliaarelookingtowrapupdiscussionswiththe10membersoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsonanewregionalagreementbytheendofthisyear,whileinAfricatalkshavebeguntomergeregionaltradezonesandevencreateanewcontinentalpact.Therearealsoattemptsunderwaytofreeuptheglobaltradeinservicesandenvironmentalgoodssuchassolarpanels.Source:FinancialTimes3Afterthefinancialcrisis,withinterestratesstuckatzero,centralbankstriedtogeeupeconomieswithavarietyofnewmeasures.Onewasforwardguidance:pledgingtokeeppolicylooseforawhile.In2011theFederalReservesaiditexpectedratestoremainlowuntilmid-2013;thiswasthenpushedbacktomid-2014,thenmid-2015.Forwardguidanceisnowanestablishedpartofthemonetarypolicytoolkit.Butwhatisthebestwaytodeployitonceinterestratesarerising?Anewpaperarguesthatinnormaltimes,notallcentralbankpromisesareequal.Therearetwotypesofforwardguidance.Oneusesatimeframe.TheFeddidthismostrecentlyinOctoberwhen,initspost-meetingstatement,itreferredexplicitlytotheimportanceofthenextmeeting(inDecember,whenitraisedrates).Thealternativeisnottomentiondates,butsayhow,ingeneral,interestrateswouldrespondtodifferentturnsofevents.Forexample,in2014theBankofEnglandpromised—withsomecaveats—nottoraiseratesuntilu