大众汽车成本分析和利润预测(PDF 28)

FORREGACCERTIFICATION,SEEPAGE18.FOROTHERIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,SEEPAGE21,GOTO:In-LineCoverageview:NeutralLarge-CapGrowthPrice:EUR44.45Volkswagen(VOWG.F)Germany:AutomobilesWeakerChinesemarginsariskfor’04earnings.Chinaislikelytocontribute70%-80%ofVW’sEPSthisyear,but3Qresultsshowworryingsignsoffallingearningsinthismarket.IfChineseprofitsdeclinein2004,theimpactcouldoffsetsomeofthegainsexpectedfromthenewGolf/othermodelsinEurope.IL/N.StockdataPriceperformance1M3M12MPriceperformancechart52-weekrangeEUR46.30-28.65Absolute10%17%11%Yield2.9%ReltoFTSEEurope7%10%5%FTSEEurope260CapitalisationForecasts/valuation12/2003E12/2004EMarketcapEUR17,384mnEPSEUR2.90EUR3.90Latestnetdebt/(cash)EUR7,826mnP/E15.3x11.4xFreefloat80%EV/EBITDA5.0x4.0xDerivatives–Sharesoutstanding425.5mnDJFMAMJJASON28303234363840424446-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.10AbsolutePricePerformance(LeftAxis)RelativetoIndex(RightAxis)ThisreportisbasedonourmorningnoteofNovember4,[e-mail]:[e-mail]:[e-mail]:[e-mail]:[e-mail]:44-20-7552-9372GoldmanSachsGlobalEquityResearchChineseprofitsarethemaindriverof2003earningsVW'sstrongexposuretotheChineseautomarketisoftencitedasapositiveforthestock.Chinawilllikelybethekeydriverofearningsin2003,contributingc.70%-80%ofreportedEPSthankstoequityincomefromtheJVsandoperatingprofitsfromsellingparts.Onequarterdoesnotmakeatrend,but3QresultsshowworryingsignsWeseeworryingsignsinVW's3QresultsthatChineseprofitsmayalreadybeslipping.Pro-formaEBITfromtheChineseJVsfell35%yoy,despitemuchhighervolumes,suggestingmuchlowermargins.ProfitsfromsellingpartstotheChineseJVsalsoappearedtofall.WealsoseesomeevidencethatinventoriesofPolo,GolandAudiA6arerisinginChina.AweakChineseresultin2004couldreduceEPSbyEUR1.00ormoreWeestimatethatChinawillcontributeoverEUR2.00ofEPSin2003,andourcurrent2004EforecastassumesEUR2.50ofEPSderivesfromChina.ButifChineseprofitsin2004runat3Q’sweaklevel,theChinesecontributioncouldeasilyfalltoonlyEUR1.60nextyear.GainsfromGolfandGermanymaynotbeenoughforVWtohitconsensus2004islikelytoseeVW’sUSprofitabilityfallfurther,probablyintoloss.IfChinaalsodeclines,itplacesevenmorepressureonEuropetodeliveranimprovement.OurestimatesalreadyassumethatthenewGolfandothermodelscandeliveraEUR500mn+improvementinEBITinEurope,yetweexpectEPSofonlyEUR3.90.ConsensusisstillbetweenEUR4.50andEUR5.00for2004.WeareconcernedthatexpectationsforanearningsimprovementatVWremaintoooptimistic.VolkswagenAutomobilesGoldmanSachsGlobalEquityResearch-November6,2003Tableofcontents1Overview:WeakerChinesemarginsariskfor2004earnings3Chineseprofitabilityunderpressureaspricingfalls7AweakerChinaresultcouldprevent2004earningsgrowth10Costbasemaybe‘sticky’anddifficulttocutfastenough12SomeindicationsofinventorybuildinChina14Financials:2004consensusestimatesmaybetoohigh19DisclosuresThepricesinthisreportarebasedonthemarketcloseofNovember5,2003.AutomobilesVolkswagenGoldmanSachsGlobalEquityResearch-November6,20031Overview:WeakerChinesemarginsariskfor2004earningsExhibit1:ForecastsandvaluationYeartoRevenuesEBITDAPre-taxprofitEPSEV/EBITDAP/EDecember(EURmn)(EURmn)(EURmn)(EUR)(x)(x)200188,5408,0204,4097.662.76.2200286,9487,1593,9866.723.47.02003E85,9505,0501,9132.905.015.32004E87,9486,3002,5133.904.011.4Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.VWenjoysmarketleadershipinChinaVWhasenjoyedfirstmoveradvantageinChina.Itsearlyinvestmentsanddecisiontoperseverethroughdifficulttimesinthe1980sand1990shavebeenrewardedwithleadershipintheworld’sfastestgrowingandmostcovetedmarket.WhileotherOEMsarestillformulatingChinastrategies,VWisalreadywellunderwaytosellingalmost1mnunitsayear,atverysatisfactorymargins.VWismorereliantonChinaprofitsthanpreviouslyrealisedThehighlevelofprofitabilityenjoyedsofarinChinahasbeendrivenbyhigh,tariff-protectedprices,ratherthanlowcosts.AboomingmarkethasplayedintoVW’shandsasitsmarketsharestrength,installedcapacityandmoreadvanceddistributionhaveallowedittosupplysoaringdemand.Highersaleshavenotbeenmatchedascloselyashopedbyrisingprofits(ChineseEBITin2002waslittlehigherthanin2001,despitevolumesupover40%),butthelevelofearningshasstillrisenandUSprofitshavefallentoalevelthathasmadeChinaakeycontributortotheGroup’sbottomline.WebelievetheimportanceofChineseprofitabilitytoVWremainspoorlyrecognised.AsUSandUKprofitscollapsedwiththemoveintheeuro,andEuropeanmarginsfellfurtheraspricingweakenedforVW,Chinahasbeenleftstandingastheonlyrealremainingprofitcentre(otherthansparepartsinEurope).WeestimateChinacontributedover70%of1HearningsatVWandcouldcontributec.70%-80%offullyearEPS.ChineseearningsderivefromtwosourcesVWreportsprofitsfromChinaintwoareas.Neitherarethattransparent,buttogetherweestimatetheycontributeduptoEUR542mnofnetearningsinthefirstninemonthsof2003,outofatot