生物燃料乙醇发展及其对近期粮食价格上涨的影响分析

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33:,,;,,;,;:;;,,20001300,,20074500,2000,30%(Trostle,2008);1600,(IEA,2006),,(,2007)(5),,,,,(6),,;,,,(7),,,11Greiner1EvolutionandRevolutionasOrganizationGrow1HarvaldBusinessReview,197221111,20043111,1995(11):5114111,2000(2):566051,,12001,2007(11):6873(:,,300072):08()200913:(:07BJY062)(:70741034),,,()200673%,(FAPRI,2007)20071516%,,()(,,2007),,,,,,,,Shapouri(2003),,,,Ugarte(2006),10%,8%10%,,,,30%(IFPRI,2006)OECD(2006),10%,30%70%,,,,(FAPRI,2007):,(UN,2007)Brown(2006),,,,Cheng(2007),,,,(2007)(2006),,,,,,18:2070,,2001197542,20001260,2007460020002007,20%,80%,,133(),,,,,,(),,510:(),20072000,29%20071,201275,2020350OECDFAO20072016,2016111,32%(OECDandFAO,2007),51,6000150010,54,(),20071800,20122700,20163200,,,,,20%,(),202001504,130,2007,20,5976510%2007,133,400,217%2005,2007,20201000,20,2007,28()20091,,:(10%)5%;(17%);,20071370(),(2008),20071516%,1018%,200520086,189%126%199%182%(,2008),2005120086,716%912%3614%120%2007,2007200820%25%,,2007,,2008,,20073082,68%,1,20086,8915%,3919%2713%,,30%:(IMF,2008),1(/)(),,,,,:(1);(2);(3);(4);(5),,(1),,,(2),,2007,,20071616,2006019,914%210%112%,38::,,20802004,2040/,2006,2008100/30%(40%),1,30%,(),,,2006,,2007720071275%56%,,,,Yangetal1(2008),20052008,78%,31%,,20072715%35%,20%28%;,200710,3%1%,2007,5%25%,,2008()2007720086,15%,85%92%,,,(),,,2004,20075000,2000,,,2007,(),2007,,,,,,48()20091,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11ChengXu,(2006),StatuesofChinasRenewableDevelopment,reportpresentedatConferenceofExpertConsutationonBiofuels,LosBanos,Philippine,August,200721FAPRI,(2007),TheBiofuelsIndustry:ImpactsonLevelsandVolatilityofWorldMarketPrices,presentationonprojectLINKmeeting,Beijing31IEA[InternationalEnergyAgency]1(2006)1Worldenergyoutlook2006,Paris,IEA41IFPRI[InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute]1(2006)1BiofuelProductioninDevelopingCounties,unpublishedworkingpaper,IF2PRI,WashingtonDC51IMF[InternationalMonetaryFoundation],(2008),PrimaryCommodityPrices,Availableat:(2007),DistilleryDemandforGraintoFuelCarsVastlyUnderstated:WorldMayBeFacingHighestGrainPricesinHistory,reportofEarthPolicyInstitute,WashingtonDC71OECD[OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment],(2006),AgriculturalMarketImpactsofFutureGrowthintheProductionofBiofuels,reporttoDirectorateforFood,AgricultureandFisheriesCommitteeforAgriculture,Paris81OECD[OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment]andFAO[FoodandAgricultureOrganization],(2007),AgriculturalOut2look200722016,Avaliableat:(2003)1SupplyandsocialcostestimatesforbiomassfromcropresiduesintheUnitedStates1EnvironmentalandResourceEconom2ics24:335358101Ugarte,D1Torre,BurtonEnglish,KimJensen,ChadHellwinckel,andBradWilson,(2006),EconomicandAgriculturalImpactsofEthanolandBiodieselExpansion,[UnitedNations],(2007),SustainableEnergy:AFrameworkforDecisionMakers,UNreport1NewYork121YangJ1,H1Qiu,J1Huang,andS1Rozelle,FightingGlobalFoodPriceRisesintheDevelopingWorld,AgriculturalEconomics,forthcoming,20081311,200714111,20062008151,1:12007,2007161,1()1,200617111,2007(7)(14)1811:1,2008(6)(:,,100101):58:

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