世界抵达货币政策的极限了吗?Therisksofcentralbanks’radicaltreatmentsHavewereachedthelimitsofmonetarypolicy?No.Thecentralbanks’medicinecabinetisstillfull.Yetusingtheoldtreatmentsmoreaggressivelyorusingaltogethernewtreatmentscreatespolitical,financialandeconomicrisks.Worse,suchactioncannotsolvesomeofthebiggerdifficultiesthehigh-incomeeconomiesconfront【vt.面对;遭遇;比较】.Inanidealworld,therefore,monetarypolicy,shouldnotremain“theonlygameintown”,asthetitleofabookbytheeconomistandinvestmentmanagerMohamedEl-Eriansuggestsitnowis.Unfortunately,wedonotliveinanidealworld.Intherealworld,centralbanksmustremainourdoctorsofchoice.我们已到达货币政策的极限了吗?没有。中央银行的药箱仍是满满的。不过,更激进地使用旧疗法,或者使用全新疗法,都会产生政治、金融和经济风险。更糟糕的是,这么做无法解决高收入经济体面对的一些更大的难题。因此,在理想世界中,货币政策不应继续是“唯一的选择”(经济学家、投资经理穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安(MohamedEl-Erian)所著《唯一的选择》(TheOnlyGameinTown)的书名暗示,当前情形恰恰如此)。遗憾的是,我们并非生活在理想的世界里。在现实世界中,央行必须继续充当我们的首选医生。Centralbankshaveduly【adv.适当地;充分地;按时地】employedmoreradicaltreatmentsthaneverbefore.Alltheleadingcentralbanksofadvancedeconomieshavesetshort-termintervention【n.介入;调停;妨碍】ratesclosetozero.TheBankofJapanhasappliedratesthislowsince1995.TheUSFederalReserveandtheBankofEnglandhaveusedultra-lowratessinceearly2009.By2013,theEuropeanCentralBankfollowedsuit—albeit【conj.虽然;即使】tooslowly.各国央行已正确地采取了比以往任何时候都要激进的疗法。主要发达经济体的央行都把短期干预利率设置为接近零的水平。自1995年以来,日本央行(BoJ)一直把利率维持在这么低的水平。自2009年初以来,美联储(Fed)和英国央行(BoE)一直采取超低利率政策。到2013年,欧洲央行(ECB)也开始跟进,尽管动作太晚了。Thesecentralbankshavealsosubstantially【adv.实质上;大体上;充分地】expandedtheirbalancesheetsthroughquantitative【adj.定量的;量的】easingor,inthecaseoftheBankofJapan,“quantitativeandqualitativeeasing”(whichincludeslengtheningofthematurityoftheassetsitbuys).LiketheFed,theBankofEnglandhasstoppedpurchasingassets.Butitsbalancesheetisbigger,relativetoUKgrossdomesticproduct,thanthroughoutitslonghistory.TheBoJandECBarestillexpandingtheirbalancesheetstoday(seecharts).这些央行还通过量化宽松——日本央行则采取“量化兼质化宽松”(包括延长所购资产的期限)——大幅扩大了自己的资产负债表。与美联储一样,英国央行已停止购买资产。但是,英国央行资产负债表相对英国国内生产总值(GDP)的比例,已达其史上最高。日本央行和欧洲央行目前仍在扩大自身资产负债表(参见图表)。Morerecently,asMarkCarney,governoroftheBankofEngland,notedinShanghaiinFebruary:“Centralbankinnovationhas … extendedtonegativerates,witharoundaquarterofglobaloutputproducedineconomieswherepolicyratesareliterallythroughthefloor.”Yet,evenafteryearsofsucheffort,theUSistheonlysignificanthigh-incomeeconomytohaveachieveditstargetrateofcoreconsumerpriceinflation.ThatisalsowhytheFedalonehasstartedatighteningcycle,albeitinagingerly【adj.谨慎的;轻手轻脚的】fashion,withthefederalfundsratestillbelow0.5percent.正如英国央行行长马克•卡尼(MarkCarney)2月在上海所指出的:“央行的创新已……扩展到负利率,全球产出中大约有四分之一是政策利率低于零的经济体创造出来的。”Oneresponsetothisapparentfailureistheargumentthathittingtheinflationtargetdoesnotmatter.Someevenarguethatdeflationhasmerits.Thisviewisflawed【n.瑕疵,缺点;】,forthreereasons.然而,即便经过多年的如此努力,美国仍是唯一实现核心消费价格通胀率目标的重要高收入经济体。也正因为如此,唯有美联储启动了紧缩周期,不过动作小心翼翼,联邦基金利率现在仍低于0.5%。First,ifinflationiszeroor,stillworse,ifitturnsnegative,itbecomeshardertosecureneededchangesinrelativepricesandwages.Theobstaclehereisnominalwagerigidity【刚性;严格,刻板】.Thisdifficultyisparticularlyimportantinamulti-countrycurrencyunion,suchastheeurozone.针对这一明显失败,有人提出了达成通胀率目标并不重要的观点。有些人甚至辩称,通缩也有好处。这一看法是错误的,原因有三。Second,underdeflationnegativerealinterestratesarepossibleonlywithstronglynegativenominal【adj.名义上的;有名无实的;】interestrates.Withoutnegativerealinterestrates,countriesmightendupinaprolongedperiodofdeficient【adj.不足的;有缺陷的】demand,elevated【vt.提升;举起】unemploymentandweakinvestment.第一,如果通胀率为0,或者更糟,通胀率变为负值,那么我们将更难实现相对物价和工资的必要变化。这里的障碍是名义工资刚性。这一难题在欧元区这样的多国货币联盟尤为突出。第二,在通缩情况下,只有显著低于零的名义负利率才能产生实际负利率。若没有实际负利率,各国或许最终会陷入更长期的需求不足、失业率升高和投资不振。Third,underdeflationtherealburdenimpliedbyagivenlevelofnominaldebtspiralsupwards.Thisriskscreating“debtdeflation”,aconditionexplainedbytheUSeconomist,IrvingFisher,inthe1930s.WhileJapanmanagedtostabilisedeflationataslowrate,thismaybeduetoitsaggressiveuseoffiscalpolicy.Withthelatterruledoutintheeurozone,therisksofacceleratingdeflationmightbeevengreaterthere.第三,在通缩情况下,给定水平名义债务所隐含的实际债务负担会螺旋式上升。这就可能产生“债务通缩”,美国经济学家欧文•费雪(IrvingFisher)在1930年代解释过这种情况。尽管日本成功地把通缩稳定在低水平上,但这可能是该国积极使用财政政策的结果。由于欧元区排除了财政政策,那里通缩加速的风险或许会更高。Itisimportant,then,forcentralbankstohittheirinflationtargets.Thisentailsverylow,orevennegative,nominalrates.AsMarioDraghi,presidentoftheECB,explainedinarecentspeech,manycomplainthattheselowinterestratesarethemselvestheproblem.“But,”heresponds,“theyarenottheproblem.Theyarethesymptomofanunderlyingproblem,whichisinsufficientinvestmentdemand,acrosstheworld,toabsorballthesavingsavailableintheeconomy.”因此,央行达成通胀率目标非常重要。这需要很低、甚至负值的名义利率。正如欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(MarioDraghi)在不久前一次演讲中所解释的那样,许多人抱怨称,低利率本身就是问题所在。“但是,”他回答说,“低利率本身并不是问题,而是另一个深层次问题的表象,那就是全球投资需求不足,无法吸收经济中的全部储蓄。”Thequestionishowwellmonetarypolicycanremedy【n.补救;治疗】suchachronical【adj.慢性的;延续很长的】deficiency【n.缺陷,缺点】indemand.Oneansweristhatcentralbankspossessmanywaysofdeliveringfurthermonetarystimulus【n.刺激;激励】:lowandevennegativeinterestrates,assetpurchases,forwardguidance,higherinflationtargets,outrightmonetaryfinancingofgovernmentdeficits,anddirectdispatchofmoneytohouseholds.问题在于,货币政策能在多大程度上解决长期需求不足的难题。一个答案是,央行拥有
本文标题:20160602Therisksofcentralbanks’radicaltreatments
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