我国汽车业产业组织合理化问题研究

华中科技大学硕士学位论文我国汽车业产业组织合理化问题研究姓名：柳莎丽申请学位级别：硕士专业：西方经济学指导教师：方齐云20080501I1111WTO;;;;IIAbstractThedevelopmentofChinaautoindustryisbehindmanystrongcountries,becauseithasweakfoudationandlacksprimarytechnique.Therearemanyunreasonableplacesinitsorganizationanditscompetitionpowermustimprove.ItislongdistancethatChinaautoindustrybecomethepillarindustryinnationaleconomysoastopushcontrymodernlizationaccelerating.Thepaperstudysthreeimportantelementswhichinfluenceindustrialorganization:marketconcentration,barrierstoentry,merger&reorganization.Anddiscusseshowtooptimizeindustryorganizationandenhancecompetitionpoweraimingatexistingproblems.WedoempricalanalysisonfactorswhichpossiblyinfluencemarketconcentrationofChinaautoindustryusingeconometricmethod.Marketvolumegrowthrate,MES&industrypolicieshavepositiveimpactonmarketconcentration.WeestablishedCoumotmodeltoanalyzetherelationshipbetweenbarrierstoentry&enterprises’choicestoenterintodifferentmarket.Theconclusionisthatpotentialenterpriseschooserestwithcostbarrierandcompetitionstatus.BarrierstoentryareclassifiedaseconomicbarriersandregulationbarriersinChinaautoindustry.Infact,sincetopgrademarkethashighthreshold,potentialenterprisesoftenenterintolow-endmarket.TheprofitabilityandsocialwelfareofhorizontalmergerarestudiedbasedonlineardemandandasymmetricconstantmarginalcostsofproductioningeneralizedStackelbergmarket.Theconclusionisthatleading(following)enterprisesseldommergewhileoneleadingenterpriseandonefollowingenterpriseoftenmerge.AfterjoiningWTO,Chinaautoindustrykeptquickmerger&reorganizationsteps.Thecasestookontwotraits:mergerreliedonforeigncapitalandThreeTopGroupplayedleadingroles.However,manyproblemsharassedChinaautoindustry.Therefore,itdidn’texhibitstrongcompetitionpower,somuchassomeenterprisesgavedecisionpowertoforeignpartnerpassively.WhichistherightroadforChinaautoindustry?HowdoesitbecomestrongautoIIIcountry?Firstofall,weshouldestablishstrategethatwenotonlyopenourautomarket,butalsoresearchonprimarytechniqueofwholeautomanufacture.Creatingtopgradeautograndsofourcountrytoletthewholeworldknowourautogrand.Andencouragingtoconstitutelargescaleautogroups.Thegovernmentmustchangeitsfunction,thatmeansdinimishingregulationbarriersandsettingupreasonableexitmechanism.KeyWords:Autoindustry;Industrialorganization;Marketconcentration;Barrierstoentry;Merger&Reorganization______“√”111.11.1.1200787921.8%?1.1.221.21.2.1WTO2002WTO(CGE),:CGECGE2003200720053122006()()2000420031412003200412199534SCP20015PESTSWOTGDP:WTOWTO200433620041182004a20061.2.2,,,Mueller&Hamm(1974)Jenny&Weber(1978)(1947-1970),,(1984)Levy(1985)1963-1972,7,Levy(1985)(partialadjustment),,AmelandLiang(1990),1966-19862090BainBainBroadman2000Badu2002Steffen(2001)Stackelberg1.3121.42002318922.12020012002200338.49%39.2%200414.1%12-12-18CR2-1199250%200778%9097%2-12-11992-20078CR%01020304050607080901992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007CR8102-13CR1997%3CR41.798.963.197.12004122-2200090%36.7%35%2-22000%CR1CR2CR3CR4CR5638490949745.7393.9---24.583544.6953.8362.6141.471.880.689.396.520.33754.368.178.436.753.570.98488.8253849576426.852.465.785.792.23556728189WTO20021011319801995212.7CKD68.7104.5SKD56.51621.1%117.8%20902006221146%3WTO/2-32-32000-2006%3CR3CR200044.831.7200148.131.7200246.846.8200347.346.7200448.048.0200546.145.7200646.2462001-200741-225-306-810-121122.22.2.111tC−Bain19581tC−1tC−Stigler1963;Mueller&Hamm1974;Jenny&Weber19781tC−2MM=[n-n-1]/n-13RNRN=[t-t-1]/t-14S13512-50.71-20.35000-10.152000-50000.071000-20000.03500-10000.0155000.007niiiNXY=∑n=1,2,3,…8iXiiYiS=+/N5RIM(6)P10199440WTO201019940199411992-20078CR1992-20061993-20072007ε−=+++++++2.12.1iai=0,1,…,6tε2-41992-2007tCR%1tCR−%tM%tRN%tStRIM%tP50.86-42.303.3320.1214.65052.8450.8628.20026.219.93061.6752.841.10-1.6143.6317.93161.9861.67-2.10056.289.92166.1761.981068.774.46163.8166.178.20-2.4671.682.52166.1163.812.500106.891.40164.7666.1113.40-0.8498.881.24162.5064.7613.980107.581.19162.9462.5013.80-1.69122.992.10176.1262.9436.650.861412.37171.4676.1235.18-1.71158.542.57175.7471.4615.511.741862.45171.1175.7413.700184.581.38172.4871.1125.130169.21.63178.1972.4821.8401703.5612.2.2(1)Eviews5.0(ADF,DickeyandFuller)152-5c,t,kADF1%CRV(c,t,0)-5.025397-4.800080(0)CRI:MV(0,0,0)-4.524020-2.754993(0)MI:2()RNV(0,0,0)-8.066970-2.792154(1)RNI:2()SV(0,0,0)-6.165018-2.754993(1)SI:2()RIMV(0,0,0)-3.361569-2.754993(1)RIMI:c,t,kctk2-5tCRtMtRNtStRIMtRNtStRIM(1)IOLS(2)AEG2080(EngleGranger),:,,tCRtRNtStRIMtPtRNtStRIM(1)ItCR(0)ItMEviews5.0140.20470.10491.26350.088010.25049.9719ttttttCRCRRNSRIMP−=+++++(2.2)1618.735990.3217201.0372690.0431400.2818915.0577502R=0.834514F=9.077065tECM2.21(40.20470.10491.2635ttttECMCRCRRN−=−+++0.088010.25049.9719)tttSRIMP++2.32.410.925374ttECMECM−∆=−2.4-3.011131t-3.0111311%tECMtCRtRNtStRIM(3)ECM10.32441.72340.0757ttttCRCRRNS−∆=∆+∆+∆+0.3123270.7563140.07533310.547910.72161.0801tttRIMPECM−∆+∆−2.50.4518764.1352540.4687972R=0.702424tMtCR40.7168+0.3158+22.991tttCRMP=2.62R=0.