汽车的市场研究ppt69(1)

EquityResearchRegionIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutosTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.2019年8月14日星期三汽车的市场研究StephenGirsky(914)[e-mail]自动部分&自动经销商:后面的到未来摩根马Stanley做和寻找到做生意公司隐蔽着的在它的研究报告.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.投资者应该考虑这报告同样地唯一的单一的因素在制造他们的投资判定.CustomersofMorganStanleyintheUnitedStatescanreceiveindependent,third-partyresearchonthecompanyorcompaniescoveredinthisreport,atnocosttothem,wheresuchresearchisavailable.消费者能通路这中立派研究在或能喊声800-624-2063到请求一份这研究?$?$介绍在汽车的世界大会EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.2•全局更新;竞争的压可能移动到欧洲.•北美国人环境;后面的到未来•竞争的更新;J3出发到幕象D3•供应者出版•问题来源:摩根马Stanley研究后面的到未来EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.3底线这年可能是挑战兴趣的,独特地一季度或二.TheIndustryisgenerallybetterpositionedtomeetthechallengesthaninthepast,butitwillnotbeeasy.来源:摩根马Stanley研究EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.4消费为了生长在停滞的工业55,00056,00057,00058,00059,00060,00061,00020002001200220032004EUnitsin000来源:LMC-JD能力&摩根马Stanley研究全局机动车要求不牢固的EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.5过度全局容量估计有25-30%ProductionCapacity45505560657075802003MillionUnits来源:Autofacts全局容量利用在72%在2003EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.6仍OEMs是寂静消费为了生长(1)80100120140160180NissanBMWKiaMazdaHondaHyundaiMitsubishiDCXVWRenaultPSAFIATToyotaFordGM来源:公司数据&摩根马Stanley研究全部的OEMs有CAPEX≥D&A为了2004EEquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.7容量生长在北美洲来源:公司数据,摩根马Stanley研究另外的容量从2004-2007:487,000单位467-330250100-400-20002004006002004200520062007CapacityChange('000Units)EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.8容量生长在欧洲来源:公司数据,摩根马Stanley研究另外的容量从2004-2006:1.2毫米单位140445600100300500700200420052006CapacityChange('000Units)EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.9过度容量在中国来源:公司数据,摩根马Stanley研究1357920032004E2005E2006E2007E2008EMillionUnits30%40%50%60%70%80%90%CapacityUtilizationIndustryDemandCompetitiveCapacityCapacityUtilization另外的容量在2007:5.8毫米单位EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.10零点总数比赛•慢的生长和过度容量建议放气/收入压是可能的到继续.•不每个人能是胜利者.•胜利者将是低成本生产者谁递送好产品那消费者是乐意的到偿还.来源:摩根马Stanley研究EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.11不包括比率移动压到欧洲1.151.201.251.301.351.401/1/20047/1/20041/1/2005USD/Euro1001031061091121151/1/20045/1/20049/1/20041/1/2005JPY/USD来源:Factset,摩根马Stanley研究,不包括比率和日本输入是12Mth旋转的1251301351401451/1/20045/1/20049/1/20041/1/2005JPY/EuroEquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.12不包括比率评论的为了W欧洲市场共享901101301501701901990/011993/011996/011999/012002/01Yen/Euro2%4%6%8%10%12%MktShrYen/EuroJapanImportShareCorrlelation78%不包括比率&日本的输入的市场共享到W欧洲来源:Factset,摩根马Stanley研究,不包括比率和日本输入是12Mth旋转的EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.13•年领导的到2005看eerily象年在前的自动工业撤回在1980.•期间早的80’s自动股票是贫穷的表演者,不管什么出现到是低估价.•股票看便宜的现在,但是他们也看便宜的然后和股票履行证明到是贫穷的.•它’s“E”那事件,不“P/E”.Recently,earningshavestartedtodecline,timewilltelliftheycollapsesimilarto80’s.?$来源:摩根马Stanley研究北美洲:后面的到未来…EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.14然后对Now-Similarities混和移动上升的原料价格在下面胀大精力成本动机拉早的要求EquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.15增加的动机拉早的要求?增加的学期&资助利率拉早的要求39414345Jan-77Jul-77Jan-78Jul-78Jan-79Jul-79Jan-80Jul-80AvgAutoLoantermUp14%pts4852566064Jan-00Jul-00Jan-01Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03AvgAutoLoantermUp20%pts来源:联邦储备金监察小组,摩根马Stanley研究7%11%6%8%10%12%ThenNowIncentiveas%ofVehiclePriceEquityResearchNorthAmericaAutos&AutoPartsIndustryReportMorganStanleyAutoTeamPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage66.16混和移动到低有利润的产品1980vs.1977-25%-28%-38%-42%-53%75%-60%-3