混合动力汽车潜在目标顾客需求分析

上海交通大学硕士学位论文混合动力汽车潜在目标顾客需求分析姓名：朱明申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：李乃和201005301(MEC),23(MNL),,,THEDEMANDANALYSISOFPOTENTIALTARGETCUSTOMEROFHYBRIDCARSABSTRACTWiththeglobaltemperaturebeingmoreandmorewarmerandthepriceofoilbeingmoreandmorehigher,theautomotiveindustrythatconsumeslotsofoilandmakeagreatdealofgreenhousegasemissionhastoseekchange.It’sthemosturgentthingthatresearchnewenergycar.Tillnow,hybridcaristhemostfeasibletobeindustrialization.Consideringthetremendousmarketinthefuture,everycar-makerwhichwantstobethewinnerinthemarketcompetitionhastoengageinanalyzingcustomerdemandandpreference,distinguishingtargetcustomerandevaluatingthemarketshareofnewproductinordertodesignthehybridcarsfavoredbycustomers.Thisthesisanalyzedcustomerdemandandpreferenceinthreefields.(1)Basedonmeans-endchain(MEC)model,thisthesisanalyzedthetargetcustomermotivationofbuyinghybridcar.Byladderingway,explorecustomersatisfactoryfactortohybridcarattributes,consequencesandvalues.Andbuildtheconnectionfromproductattributestoconsequencestovalues.IthelpsOEMtoconsidercarefullywhatarethedemandsofcustomersandhowtofulfillthesedemandsbydesigningthecertainproductattributes.(2)Basedonconjointanalysismodel,thisthesisanalyzedthepreferenceofcustomertodifferentproductconcepts.Takethemultipleregressionwayevaluateandmeasuretherelativeattributeimportance,attributelevelutilityandtotalproductionutility.Moreover,thisthesissimulatedthemarketshareofdifferentnewproducts.(3)BasedonMNLmodel,thisthesisestablishedaconsumerchoicemodel,inwhichindividualhadstochasticutilityforeachproductinthedifferentbrands.Hypothesizethatcustomeralwaysmakethepurchasingdecisionfollowingmaximumutility.Andgetthecustomerbuyingprobabilitytoonecertainproductindifferentbrands.Basedonthisfinding,thisthesismadetargetcustomersegmentationtodistinguishwhoisloyal,competent,transferableorlostcustomer.Thisthesisanalyzedthecustomerdemandstohybridcarsandprovidedsomevaluablesuggestiontothenewhybridcarofourcompanythatwouldcomeintothemarketattheendof2010.Therefore,ithasverystrongrealitymeaning.KEYWORDS:MEC,MNL,conjointanalysis,preference,targetcustomer201053020105302010530MBA1MNLSPSSMarketEngineeringMBA211.1/19971FIGURE1DevelopmentRoadofNewEnergyCarMBA320091300202015%50%2008OEM20052009200820107502012550MNLMNLMBA41.21231MECMECMEC]1[MEC]2[2ConjointAnalysis]3[3(MNL)MNL]4[MNLMBA51.31MECMNL2MEC34MNLMNLMNL5MBA62-2.1-2.1.1(MEC)Means-EndChainMECGutman1982Olson&Reynolds1983MECMEC]5[consequencesattributes(value)MECMEC:MECMEC2FIGURE2MECStructureMBA72.1.22.1.2.1(attributes)]6[SchoellGuiltian1990Richardson(1994)StantonEtzel1991Parry11Table1AttributesClassTableLevitt1980Zeithaml1981Pessemier1982Myers&Shocker(1981)Olson&Reynolds(1983)Zeithaml(1988)MBA81Peters&Olson(1993)Keller(1998)MarkE.Parry20032.1.2.2(consequences)Gutman(1982)]7[Peter&Olson(1993)Rokeach1973MEC]8[MECParry22.1.2.3(values)MECMBA9Rokeach1973Parry--2Table2ConsequencesClassTableYound&Feigin1975Myers&Shocker(1981)Olson&Reynolds(1983)Peters&Olson(1993)OShaughnessy(1987)Keller(1998)MarkE.Parry20032.2LadderingLadderingDepthInterview1.2.MBA102.2.1Gutman1982HierarchicalValueMaps,HVMReynolds&Gutman,1988Reynolds&Whitlark,1995]9[(Grunert,2001;BotschenThelen,1998)--?2.2.112implicationmatrixMBA113HierarchicalValueMap,HVMHVMHVM]10[123AssociationPatternTechnique,APTAPTAPTA-CC-VA-CC-VHofstede1998APTA-CC-VA-CC-V2.3-17APTAPTHVM2.3.1GutmanMECMECMBA1214S2320091220101171.2.3.4.5.6.357./3FIGURE3MECModelMBA138.9.10.3Table3BasicInformationofInterviewees%2530211.830401588.21482.4317.61376.5423.51058.8529.4IT211.81270.6423.515.91588.235211.84Table4HybridCarAttributesRank123ESPABS45674S89MBA1475Table5HybridCarConsequence1234566Table6ValuesofConsumer123452.3.2APTA-CC-VA-CiAjCjiCA100≤≤jiCA010NMBA15kjVCiiIA(100≤≤iIA010)]11[7Table7CorrelationMatrixbetweenAttributesandConsequencesofHybridCar82.1%65.3%58.4%70.0%50.5%47.9%55.8%52.1%49.5%49.5%77.9%52.6%37.9%41.6%48.9%47.9%46.8%38.9%52.6%41.6%50.5%48.4%45.8%48.4%52.6%48.4%42.1%63.2%60.5%59.5%83.2%56.8%56.8%33.7%58.9%64.2%67.4%55.8%61.6%55.3%62.6%43.2%8Table8CorrelationMatrixbetweenConsequencesofHybridCarandPersonalValues57.4%72.6%43.7%50.5%43.2%58.4%63.7%55.8%65.3%70.5%56.3%52.1%59.5%52.1%40.5%45.3%73.2%41.1%55.3%48.9%70.5%60.5%57.4%51.1%66.3%56.8%71.1%64.2%58.9%65.3%9Table9AttributesWeight77.4%69.1%69.1%51.5%46.4%44.1%43.5%2.3.3MBA16MEC-4FIGURE4HVM7850%5MBA175FIGURE5HVMofConsumertoHybridCar214536546.4%5743.5%369.1%4213177.4%269.1%82%451.5%60%67%65%83%70%62%57%644.1%63%63%58%53%59%56%60%64%73%73%60%65%71%71%71%66%61%64%64%58%65%78%MBA181.2.3.4.5.2.3.4iIAjiCAkjVCiAjCkV)(kjjiiijkVCCAIAP+=101090%Table10HighImportanceabove90%ofMEC115P115%114P106%121P97%155P92%215P91%112P113%153P103%352P96%142P92%152P90%113P110%165P100%161P95%253P92%162P90%353P108%355P98%135P93%265P92%111P108%354P97%134P92%154P91%76521090%23164396421142117MBA1954435≥106%≥90%≥96%≥91%78%MBA203]12[ConjointAnalysis3.13.1.1ConjointAnalysis1964LuceTukey]13[1971GreenRao]14[1972GreenWindJain]3[MBA21123453.1.2126363=729/MBA223.1.3]15[1233.1.41(AttributesandLevels)2Part-WorthFunctions(UtilityFunctions)3(