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湖南大学硕士学位论文湖南汽车零部件产业发展研究姓名：高丽申请学位级别：硕士专业：@指导教师：廖进中20070801I1513%15%PESTIIAbstractOurcountryautomobilealreadyenteredthehigh-speeddevelopmentstage,anditisestimatedthatinthefuture15yearsourcountryautomobileentirevehicleoutputwillbeabletomaintainaverage13%abovethespeed-up,thesparepartnecessarymarketspeed-upabove15%,heldthequantityintheautomobileunceasinglytoincrease,theentirevehicleoutputunceasinglyrose,theglobalpurchasetohadthecostsuperiorityChinatoshift,factorandsoonsparepartexportationunceasinggrowthallgivesourcountryautomobilesparepartthedevelopmenttobringintheopportunitysituation,howusedtheexistingHunanProvincesparepartindustrythesuperiority,overcametheinsufficiency,heldtheopportunity,metthechallenge,relatestheHunanProvinceentireautomobileindustrywhethercouldobtaintheunprecedenteddevelopmentthekeyquestion.ThisarticletakestheHunan’sautomobilepartindustryastheresearchobject,borrowsthePESTtheoryaswellasthevaluechainstrategyanalysismethodtotheHunan’sautomobilepartindustryfromthepolicyenvironment,theeconomicenvironment,thesocialenvironment,thetechnicalenvironmentaswellasthevaluechainaspectcarriesonthecomprehensiveanalysis,theanalysishadindicated,theHunan’sautomobilepartindustrydevelopmenthadthegoodindustryfoundationandthesuperiorgeographicalsuperiority,aswellaslaborforceresourcesrichandsoon,butsimultaneouslyalsohasthescaleslightly,thetechnicaldevelopmentabilitywasweak,theentiretiremovedaffectsandsoontheinferiorityslightly,butgenerallyspeaking,becausenationalandtheprovincialgovernmentpolicyvigorouslysupportaswellasthemultinationalcorporationadoptedtheglobalpurchasestrategyisochronismmachinearrival,Thepartdevelopmenthadalreadymettheonceinathousandyearsgoodopportunity.ThenthepaperhascarriedonthestrategicformulationandtheforecastfortheHunan’sautomobilepartindustry,willaffecttheHunan’sautomobilepartindustrydevelopmentthefactortoinduceintothetechnologybase,theindustrialenvironment,thepolicysupportandthemarketdemand,theorderhassuccessivelycarriedonthearrangementusingthelevelanalyticmethodfortheHunan’sautomobilepartproductdevelopment,obtainedshouldtheprioritizeelectricitysubclasspart,theautomobilevehicleusethemoldwithpowertotalChengJichetheconclusion.ThisarticlefinallyactedaccordingtoanalyzesproposedtheHunan’sautomobilepartIIIindustrydevelopmentcountermeasuresuggested,howkeyfromdevelopedtheindustrialcolony,howdevelopstheelectricitysubclasssparepartaswellashowpromotestheindependentinnovationabilitythreeaspectstoproposethesuggestion,proposedwithemphasiswiththeentirecartyardresearchanddevelopment,constructedtechnicalpublicplatform,questionandsoonattenionindependentresearchanddevelopment.KeywordHunanAutomobilepartsindustry;Valuechain;Professionstructure1.1.....................................32.1.........................................................................172.2.............................................................................................193.1CorrelogramofResiduals1.................................................................................283.2CorrelogramofResiduals2.................................................................................293.3.................................................................................................303.4.........................................................................361?______2?“v”111.11.1.1205070202090GDP6%21——1513%15%1.1.222005101“”1.21.2.1[1]15%25%50%10%1/319902.0GDP4.5819973.5GDP9.92[2]2039020002.93%,20027.56%[3]200510223.3GDP1%2%2006GDP1.81%1.2.201000200030004000500060000.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%1.11.120200020055397.05352002520063541.31.3.1——VelosoFrancisco,FuchsErica(2004)[4]Gao,Paul(2002)10%15%[5]Zachary,Katherine,Kelly,Kevin,McClellan,BarbaraNo.1WTO[7](2004)[8](2004)[9]“”“”[10-11](2003)[12](2002)[13]5(2000)[14]2003“”[15]19951.2.3.4[16]2003WTO[17]2004WTO[18]2003[19]2005[20]20006[21]2002WTO[22]2004[23]2001[24]2001WTO[25]1.3.2(QualitativeSimulation)1983SeelyBrowJohndeKleer90[26]DeKlee(Envision)[27]KD.Forbu(QPT)[28],B.J.Kuipers(QSIM)7IwasakiSimon[29-30]J.M.BateC.W.Granger[31][32]GM(1,1)nGM(1,1)[33]GM(1,3)20002010[34](ANN)[35]A.LapedeR.Farbe[36]R.R.LeightoB.C.ConrathARMA[37]2006SPSS[38]2006[39]2001BP200020052010[40]2001GompertzGompertz[41]2006198520038;[42]1.41.4.1“”1.4.2PESTPEST922.1140%22006612430%2.22.1()1124002825137652465245553065302102.1745348432092620102340594733CVT2.2200434165712045057.8214138722157.311777257130.221827156287718928.75115300074550020.52221454134849196.162535030426088112.562131301831427.1735324550286410.5934134130340513.6332005411302052.2PESTPESTPESTPoliticalEconomicTechnologicalSocialPEST12GDP2.2.112“”3“”2005SUV13SUV2.4L2%15%2.32.3SUV%%%1.533?????1.52.03522.4362.02.52.45942.53.051273.04.0515104.0520152.2.216000“”“”“”149%“”“”432%“”“”25.7%142.42001-2005200120022003200420051942834986417001432023644965425181134145158%26292723232200750070%2005904056.6200585.3OEM200588.920.9%32.2.3120901520WTOWTOWTO()22004GDP1000GDP300010005.228654013WTO2020082010201360020033320061,,,.“”3397.70,12,1654162006