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Thecurrenttradeenvironmentanalysisandnewpolicyadjustmentin2011TopicChineseEnglish商务部当前外贸形势分析及政策调整thecurrenttradeenvironmentanalysis(byMOC)目前外贸环境分析：1．有利因素：a.外需保持适度增长。b.我国出口总体竞争力仍然较强。c.十二五规划为外贸发展注入新活力。2．不利因素：a.全球贸易复苏势头明显放缓。b.国际环境不确定、不稳定因素增多。c.出口面临国内五大压力：1)原材料上涨2)劳动力成本上升，用工短缺3)人民币升值压力大4)节能、减排压力大5)融资成本压力大2011年欧盟市场分析：27个国家，5亿人口，2010年欧元区经济增长1.7%，个人消费增长1.2%。2010年欧盟区失业率为10%。高债务，高赤字。特点：（1）失业率高起，抑制欧盟消费回暖。（2）信贷紧缩，制约贸易融资、投资。（3）财政赤字，拖累欧盟经济增长。（4）外需下降。（5）主权债务危机进一步恶化，影响金融稳定。执行更严厉的反倾销政策欧盟将要长达10年的经济低迷时期Thecurrentforeigntradeenvironmentanalysis:Advantage:a.theoversearequirementsustainspropergrowth.b.WestillownthestrongexportationCompetitiveadvantages.c.Thetwelfthfiveyears’planinjectthenewenergytotheforeigntrade’sdevelopment.Disadvantage:a.Theinternationaltraderecoverybecomeslower.b.Theuncertainfactorsincreasesfortheinternationaltradeenvironment.c.Theexporterisfacingfollowingfivepressure:1)Thepriceoftherawmaterialisgrowingup.2)Thelaborcostisgrowingup.3)CNYisappreciating4)Theenergyconservationcostisgrowingup.5)Financingdifficulties2010-2011EuropeanUnionmarketanalysisTotal27countries,0.5billionpopulation.2010:Theeconomicgrowthis1.7%,theprivatespendinggrowthis1.2%,theunemploymentrateis10%Highdebts,highdeficit。(1)thehighunemploymentwillblocktheprivatespending’srecovery.(2)Thetightenedcreditwillblockthetradefinancingandthetradeinvestment.(3)Thefinancedeficitwillblocktheeconomics’growth.(4)Theinternationalmarketrequirementisdecreasing.(5)Thesovereigntydebtcrisiswillfurtherworsen，thefinancingsituationwillbecomeunstable.出口退税政策调整趋势TheVATpolicyadjustment&trend（bySAT）1．保持稳定，国家财政状况良好，不会下调2．海关特殊监管区域（保税区、保税物流园区等）税务政策将整合3．加工贸易税务政策将作调整。4．增值税转型，部分营业税范围改为增值税，分部实施，最终实现取消营业税。5．进口税收政策调整，如来料加工进口设备增值税的退税。1.Sustainthepolicystability.thefinancingstatusisverygood,theVATrebateratewillnotdown.2.ReconcileandunifytheVATpolicyforFreeTradeZone,BondedLogisticzone.3.Therearesomechangefortheprocessingtradepolicy.4.VATinnovation,partofthebusinesstaxscopewillbemergedbyVAT,stepbystep,thefinallyallofthebusinesstaxscopewillbemergedbyVAT.5.Theimportationpolicywillbechanged,forexampletheVATrefundfortheimportedequipmentoftheenterprisewhodealwithprocessingtrade(lailiao).对OXYLANE’s影响TheimpacttoOxylane(commentsbyEliza)1．出口退税率不会下调，对生产成本没有影响。2．密切关注保税区政策调整，很可能影响在保税区注册的DPPs目前的运作流程。3．加工贸易政策调整将直接影响在作关本的供应商，也将间接影响DPPS的生产成本。4．增值税、营业税合并问题，短期内对我司没有影响。（至少1-3年内没影响）1.NochangeordownfortheVATrefundrate,noimpacttoourproductioncost2.Paycloseattentiontothechangeofthefreetradezone,probablytherewillbesomeimpacttoourcurrentoperatingflow.3.Thechangeoftheprocessingtradepolicywillindirectlyimpacttoourproductioncost.4.ThemergeofVAT/businesstaxinnovation,noimpacttoourbusinessinshortandmiddleterms(atleastnoimpactwithin1-3years)海关监管的措施调整Thenewpolicyofcustomcontrolin2011(byGAC）近期政策：1）署令（2010）197号文，对AA/A类企业适用相应的通关便利措施，对B类企业适用常规管理措施，对C类企业适用严厉管理措施。2）署令（2010）195号关于加工贸易，未经海关批准，加工贸易货物不得抵押，保税货物外发加工有如下情况，应缴纳税款金额的保证金或银行保函：A/外发加工业务跨关区的B/全部工序外发加工的Up-datedpolicy1)GAC(2010)No.197:thecustomcontrolwillimplementdifferentcustomdeclarationprocedureaccordingthedifferentclassoftheenterprises,forclassAA/Aenterprises,theywillgetVIPprocedures,fortheclassBenterprise,theywillgetnormalprocedure,andfortheclassCenterprise,theywillgetmorestrictprocedures.C/外发加工后货物不运回直接出口的2)GAC(2010)No.195abouttheprocessingtrading,withoutthecustomauthority’sapproval,thebondedstockcannotbemortgage，andforthesub-subcontractingbondedstock,thesubcontractorneedtopaycashdepositorbankguaranteeinthefollowingcase:A/Sub–sub-contractingtransactionbetweendifferentcustominspectionareas.B/Fullproductionprocesssubsub-contractingC/Directexportaftersubsub-contracting,noproductsreturnback.对OXYLANE’s影响TheimpacttoOxylane(commentsbyEliza)1)对迅力这样的A类企业，将享受VIP待遇，通关速度将提高，建议斯博汀申请加入A类企业。2)对于JBO/SP来料加工业务，如果涉及外发加工跨关区的（如外发料到湖北、广西等地的），加工厂需交纳税款保证金，这势必将间接增加生产成本。1)ItwillbeprofitforcalssAcompanylikeXunli,itacceleratethespeedoftheexportdeclarationprocess.suggestSPtoapplyforclassAcompany.2)ForthecustombookbusinessofJBO/SP,ifthebondedstockneedtobesubsubcontractingwithindifferentcustomareas,(forexampletransferthebondedstocktoHubeiprovinceorotherprovince),thecashdepositneedtobepaidbythesubcontractor.thiswillindirectlyincreaseourproductscost.专家对2011年人民币升值预测TheforecastofCNYappreciation(bytheuniversityexpert)2011年人民币汇率预测：从现在起，未来半年内升值超过3%，全年上升将超过7%，上半年比下半年快。TheforecastoftheexchangerateCNY/USDFromnowon,theCNYwillappreciate3%inthefuture6months,itwillappreciate7%forthewholeyear,itwillbegomorefastinthefirstsemesterthanthesecondsemester.对OXYLANE’s影响TheimpacttoOxylane(commentsbyEliza)1.对那些与我司美元结算的供应商将有较大影响，很可能他们要提出新的付款条款2.对于有自营出口业务的DPP将有较大影响，年度税收贡献将大大减少。如迅力，斯博汀1.ItwillbebigimpacttothesupplierswhoreceivesUSDfromDPPS,probablytheywillraisetochangethepaymenttermwithus.2.ItwillbebigimpacttotheDPPwhohavedirectexportbusiness,likeXL,SP,theprofitwillbedecreasedandtheincometaxwillbelessthanpreviousyear.外汇管理政2011年成为中国再通胀之年，CPI超5.3%，外汇收支净流入压力大。Theyear2011willbecomethe“inflationyear”,theCPIwillover5.3%，thenetforeign策趋势NewSAFEpolicytrendbySAFE）新政策：1进口核销改革，将逐笔核销改为总量核销。2，简化外贸企业退税申报程序，外汇核销与退税申报脱钩3．出口收汇留存境外currenc