2010 CCI report 1中国消费者信心指数报告第一期_final

Page1NielsenChinaConsumerConfidence2010Report1中国消费者信心指数报告2010年第一期ChinaConsumerConfidence2010ReportOne主要研究发现FindingsHighlights•最新中国消费者信心指数上升3点CCIup3pointsinChinainthelastwave.•消费者信心提升主要受到西部省份以及一线和五线城镇消费者推动GrowthmainlydrivenbytheWestprovinces/Tier1andTier5consumers.•对整体经济环境信心增强系消费者看好就业前景的直接结果Higherconfidenceintheeconomyisadirectconsequenceofbetterjobprospects.•就业前景改善与消费者看好个人财政状况之间相互作用力强HighcorrelationbetweenanimprovedlocaljobprospectandabetterstateofChineseconsumers’personalfinances.•2009年中国快速消费品零售额增长率达到10%，发出经济反弹强劲信号AsaresultFCMGvaluesalesgrowthwentup10%inNovember2009,whichclearlyshowsastrongsignofrecovery.如何为2010年经济转型做好充分准备？Howtobestpreparethetransitioninto2010?•快速发展的新趋势：数字媒体Fastemergingtrend:Digitalmedia•创新仍然是发展至关重要的助推力Innovationstillakeydriverforgrowth中国消费者信心研究简述ChinaConsumerConfidenceSurveyDescription•研究方法Methodology–覆盖城市：中国所有地区以及各级别城市，包括乡镇Marketcoverage:allregionsandallcitytiersdowntovillage–样本量：超过3400+消费者SampleSize:3400+consumers–调研时间：2009年11月13日至12月10日SurveyPeriod:Nov.11–Dec.10,2009–调研频率：每季度一次Frequency:quarterly•数据收集DataCollection–一线城市：在线访问/二、三、四线城市：电话访问/乡镇：入户访问OnlineforTier1,CATIforTier2-4andFTFforTown/Village–农村入户访问由国家统计局经济景气中心负责开展FTFinterviewinTown/VillagewasconductedbyCEMAC–固定样本：每次调查受访者相同Panelbasedsamples:samerespondentseachwave•全国数据报告，包括五个城镇级别和四大地理区域Reportingnationally,for5citytiers,and4geographicalregions–城市级别定义CityTierDefinitions–一线：上海、北京、广州Tier1–ShanghaiBeijing&Guangzhou–二线：省会城市Tier2–ProvincialCapitalCities–三线：地级城市Tier3–PrefectureLevelCities–四线：县级市Tier4–CountyLevelCities–五线：城镇Tier5–Towns&Villages–地区定义RegionDefinitions东部地区East中部地区Central西部地区West东北地区Northeast北京Beijing山西Shanxi内蒙Innermengolia辽宁Liaoning天津Tianjin安徽Anhui广西Guangxi吉林Jilin河北Hebei江西Jiangxi重庆Chongqing黑龙江Heilongjiang上海Shanghai河南Henan四川Sichuan江苏Jiangsu湖北Hubei贵州Guizhou浙江Zhejiang湖南Hunan云南Yunnan福建Fujian西藏Xizang山东Shandong陕西Shanxi广东Guangdong甘肃Gansu海南Hainan青海Qinghai宁夏Ningxia新疆XinjiangPage5中国消费者信心指数自2009年下半年迄今再创新高，上升三点，高于全球平均水平ConfidenceinChinareachednewheightssincesecondhalfof2007;up3points–aboveGlobalaverage.8782968995104868277848894979980100841088082831069810195105106607080901001102ndHalf'061stHalf'072ndHalf'071stHalf'082ndHalf'081stQuart'092ndQuart'093rdQuart'094thQuart'09GlobalAverageUSChina全球平均美国中国Source:NielsenConsumerConfidenceSurvey数据来源：尼尔森消费者信心调查一线城市与五线乡镇的消费者信心指数上升最为强劲，二、三、四线城市消费者信心水平保持平稳西部地区消费者信心水平显著提升Tier1andTier5citiesareexperiencingstronggrowthinconsumers’confidencewhileTier2/3/4maintaintheirlevel.ConfidenceintheWestissignificantlyhigherinthelastwave.Source:NielsenConsumerConfidenceSurvey数据来源：尼尔森消费者信心调查9510192859893899397951019310210410410696104108100101104107101103107103102100106NationalEastMiddleWestNortheastTier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier509Q209Q309Q4中国消费者信心指数ConsumerConfidenceIndex二线东部中部西部东北部一线全国三线四线五线+3+8+7+5Page8对于经济状况的坚定信心与消费者对就业前景的预期和对个人财政状况的看法显著改善相关联。中国消费者的消费意愿也随之增长Strongconfidenceintheeconomyishighlycorrelatedwithasignificantgrowthinlocaljobprospects,andanimprovedstateofpersonalfinances.Consumer’swillingnesstospendisthereforeincreasing.未来十二个月当地就业前景LocalJobProspectsinthenext12MonthsSource:NielsenConsumerConfidenceSurvey数据来源：尼尔森消费者信心调查504740586363465942National全国National全国National全国09Q209Q309Q4[非常好+比较好][Excellent+Good]+5+4+4未来十二个月个人财政状况StateofPersonalFinancesinthenext12months未来十二个月消费意愿WillingtoSpendintheNext12MonthsPage9对就业前景的看好和个人财政状况的积极改善主要受到一线和五线城镇消费者的推动HigherlocaljobprospectsandimprovedstateofpersonalfinancesaremainlydrivenbyTier1andTier5consumers.未来十二个月当地就业前景LocalJobProspectsinthenext12MonthsSource:NielsenConsumerConfidenceSurvey数据来源：尼尔森消费者信心调查363347525452454649474836354140475863676367515146454636575456586968636267625548464744606255Tier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier5Tier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier5Tier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier509Q209Q309Q4[非常好+比较好][Excellent+Good]未来十二个月个人财政状况StateofPersonalFinancesinthenext12months未来十二个月消费意愿WillingtoSpendintheNext12MonthsPage1048114528262232676723680%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%OverallPriceFoodRealEstateAutoDecreaseRemainthesameIncreasePriceFluctuationsinthenext12months物价水平预期上涨Consumersexpecttoriseoverthenext12months未来12个月的价格变化Page1112363545710262525272719282827246763726770766867666680%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%NationalEastMiddleWestNortheastTier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier5DecreaseRemainthesameIncreaseFoodpricesduringthenext12months67%ofconsumersthinkthatfoodpriceswillincrease.Page12Consumersexpectthatrealestatepriceswillcontinuetoincrease.67686468706379726775767066631110139128108121391312922232323182911202112151722280%20%40%60%80%100%NatinalEastMiddleWestNortheastYangziRiverDeltaPearlRiverDeltaBeijing,Tianjing,HebeiOthersTier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier5IncreaseDecreaseRemainthesameRealestatepriceinthenext12monthsPage13Moreconsumersexpectthepriceofautomobileswillincrease,incomparisonwithlastquarter.2319232919192816252222202324454947375241506244534250474232323034294022233225353029340%20%40%60%80%100%NationalEastMiddleWestNortheastYangziRiverDeltaPearlRiverDeltaBeijing,Tianjing,HebeiOthersTier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier5Autopricesduringthenext12monthsPage14中国消费者对经济的信心增强直接影响消费意愿积极改善，快速消费品零售指数随之走强IncreasedconfidenceintheChineseecon