麦肯锡-中国汽车业的调整

Atune-upforChina’sautoindustryacedwiththeprospectofstagnantglobalsalesoverthenextfiveyears,theworld’sbiggestcarmakersarejockeyingforashareofoneofthefewbuoyantnationalmarkets.China’sdomesticcarsales,growingatmorethan10percentannually,willprobablyaccountfor15percentof144PaulGaoGlobalcarmakerscouldmanagetheircostsandcapitalinChina—andgainastrategicoptionfortheirglobaloperations—bycontractingoutthemanufactureofwholevehiclestoChinesecompanies.F(144-155)Q1'02_ChinaAuto_v51/7/0210:56AMPage144145TONYSTONEglobalgrowthoverthenextfiveyears.Sofar,globalautomakershavepur-suedsuccessfuljoint-venturestrategiesbyinvestingheavilyinassemblyplantsoperatedbyChinesepartners.ButascompetitioninChinaheatsup,anewtackmaybeneededinthequestforprofitablemarketshare.Anasset-lightstrategywouldhavethemajorautocompaniesconcentrateonwhattheydobest—developingproductsandbrands—whilecontractingoutnotjustcomponentsupplybutalsothewholeassemblyprocesstoChineseautomakersthatcancapitalizeoncompetitivecoststructures.Althoughscalingbackcapitalinvestmentinsuchahealthymarketmightseembold,outsourcingmanufacturingisneitheruncommoninotherindus-triesnorentirelyunprecedentedinthisone.Moreover,thenatureoftheChineseautoindustryandmarketmakesoutsourcingparticularlyattractive.OutsourcingmightalsohelpChineseautomakerstaketheirfirststepstobecomingaglobalmanufacturingresource.Butifthestrategyistowork,globalcarmakersmustbuilduptheskillsoftheseChinesepartners,whichinturnmustembracecontractmanufacturingasamoreprofitablepathtocreatingagloballycompetitiveindustrythanlaunchingtheirownbrands.(144-155)Q1'02_ChinaAuto_v51/7/0210:57AMPage145CompetitionisabouttoheatupWithsalesof2.1million–plusunitsin2000,Chinabuysmorefour-wheeledvehiclesthanallbutsixothernationalmarkets,yetitspassengercarmarketisstillintheearlystagesofgrowth.IndeedChina,withonly600,000carsalesayear,hasfewerthan10passengercarsontheroadper1,000people,comparedwith250inTaiwanandmorethan500inGermanyandtheUnitedStates.Butdemand—promotedbybetterroads,newsalesanddistri-butionchannels,thederegulationoftheautomarket,andChina’sentryintotheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)—willincreaseasthecountry’secon-omycontinuestogrow(Exhibit1).Thedominantproductionandsalesjointventuresbetweenglobalandlocalcompanieshavethebestpositionformeetingthatdemand.Only15yearsafterVolkswagenenteredthemarket,morethanhalfofthepassengercarssoldinChinarolloutofVW’sChangchunandShanghaijointventures.Otherforeignjointventuresaccountfornearlyalltherest—afurther43percent(Exhibit2).Intheshadowoftheseforeignalliances,20domesticcarmakerssharejust3percentofthemarket.AsglobalcompaniesfocusmoreandmoreonChina,localmanufacturerswilldowelltoholdeventhatmeagershare;theyconcedetoomuchground146THEMcKINSEYQUARTERLY2002NUMBER1EXHIBIT1Anengineofgrowth1Forecast.2Compoundannualgrowthrate.3Grossdomesticproduct.Source:DRI-WEFA(DataResourcesIncorporated–WhartonEconomicForecastingAssociates);McKinseyanalysis199520012005109,0001,0002,0003,0004,0008,000Passengercarsales,1995–2005,1thousandsUnitedStatesJapanGermanySouthKoreaBrazilUnitedKingdomCAGR2ofsales,2001–05,1percentExpectedshareofglobalgrowth,2001–05,1percentCAGR2ofsalesper$1,000ofGDP,32001–05,1percent–3.20.1–0.45.22.3–310101015–0.31.72.37.712.35,0002.298.0IndiaUnitedStatesJapanGermanyChinaSouthKoreaBrazilUnitedKingdomIndia–2.3–10.23.5218.9(144-155)Q1'02_ChinaAuto_v51/7/0210:57AMPage146inR&D,productdevelopment,andsalesandmarketing.Inaddition,DaimlerChrysler,GM,andVWplantoexpand;FordMotorhassetupthecompany’sfirstpassengercarjointventure;andBMWhasannouncedthatitisdiscussingwithBrillianceChinaAutomotivethepossibilitythattheChinesecompanymightassembleits3-seriesand5-seriesmodelsinChina.Whatismore,theseglobalcarmakersareplanning,forthefirsttime,tointro-ducenewmodelsandupgradesinChinawithinmonthsoftheirlaunchinmorematuremarkets.ThisdevelopmentwillsurelyendthereignoftheVWSantana,a1970s-eramodelthathaslongbeenoutofproductionelsewherebut,offeredwithoutevenafaceliftforover15years,isChina’sbest-sellingcar.China’sentryintotheWTOwillcutimporttariffsdrastically,heighten-ingpressureonlocalproducers(Exhibit3,onthenextpage).Itwillalsoallowglobalcarmakerstoownbusinessesinwhichtheyhaveunmatchableadvantages:sales,service,anddistribution,aswellasloanservicestocarbuyers—servicesthataresuretobewelcomeinamarketwherepersonalcreditisscarce.Forglobalbrands,thestrategicissueisnolongerwhethertoenterthemarketorhowtocompetewithChinesecompaniesbutrathersecuringorconsoli-datingprofitablemarketshare.ForChineseautomakers,thismeansthat147ATUNE-UPFORCHINA’SAUTOINDUSTRYEXHIBIT2Partnerpower:JointventuresdominateChina’sautoindustryJointventuresMarketshare,2000,percent97.0Domesticproduction•FAW(2.0)•19others(1.0)3.020domesticcarmakersshare3%ofmarketForeignpartnerDaihatsu,ToyotaHondaGeneralMotorsSuzukiCitroënVolkswagenDaimler-ChryslerVolkswagenYear19871998199819931992198519841985Marketshare,2000,percent14.94.95.08.98.917.81.035.697.0LocalpartnerTianjinAutomotiveIndustryGroup(TAIC)GuangzhouAutoGroupSAICChang’anAutomobileDongfengMotorFirstAutoWorks(FAW)BeijingAutomotiveIndustr