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网购上雀动,省钱又放心网购上雀动,省钱又放心—andgainastrategicoptionfortheirglobaloperations—bycontractingoutthemanufactureofwholevehiclestoChinesecompanies.PAULGAOTheMcKinseyQuarterly,2002Number1Facedwiththeprospectofstagnantglobalsalesoverthenextfiveyears,theworld抯biggestcarmakersarejockeyingforashareofoneofthefewbuoyantnationalmarkets.China抯domesticcarsales,growingatmorethan10percentannually,willprobablyaccountfor15percentofglobalgrowthoverthenextfiveyears.Sofar,globalautomakershavepursuedsuccessfuljoint-venturestrategiesbyinvestingheavilyinassemblyplantsoperatedbyChinesepartners.ButascompetitioninChinaheatsup,anewtackmaybeneededinthequestforprofitablemarketshare.Anasset-lightstrategywouldhavethemajorautocompaniesconcentrateonwhattheydobest—developingproductsandbrands—whilecontractingoutnotjustcomponentsupplybutalsothewholeassemblyprocesstoChineseautomakersthatcancapitalizeoncompetitivecoststructures.Althoughscalingbackcapitalinvestmentinsuchahealthymarketmightseembold,outsourcingmanufacturingisneitheruncommoninotherindustriesnorentirelyunprecedentedinthisone.Moreover,thenatureoftheChineseautoindustryandmarketmakesoutsourcingparticularlyattractive.OutsourcingmightalsohelpChineseautomakerstaketheirfirststepstobecomingaglobalmanufacturingresource.Butifthestrategyistowork,globalcarmakersmustbuilduptheskillsoftheseChinesepartners,whichinturnmustembracecontractmanufacturingasamoreprofitablepathtocreatingagloballycompetitiveindustrythanlaunchingtheirownbrands.COMPETITIONISABOUTTOHEATUPWithsalesof2.1million-plusunitsin2000,Chinabuysmorefour-wheeledvehiclesthanallbutsixothernationalmarkets,yetitspassengercarmarketisstillintheearlystagesofgrowth.IndeedChina,withonly600,000carsalesayear,hasfewerthan10passengercarsontheroadper1,000people,comparedwith250inTaiwanandmorethan500inGermanyandtheUnitedStates.Butdemand—promotedbybetterroads,newsalesanddistributionchannels,thederegulationoftheautomarket,andChina抯entryintotheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)—willincreaseasthecountry抯economycontinuestogrow(Exhibit1).网购上雀动,省钱又放心网购上雀动,省钱又放心抯ChangchunandShanghaijointventures.Otherforeignjointventuresaccountfornearlyalltherest—afurther43percent(Exhibit2).Intheshadowoftheseforeignalliances,20domesticcarmakerssharejust3percentofthemarket.网购上雀动,省钱又放心网购上雀动,省钱又放心抯firstpassengercarjointventure;andBMWhasannouncedthatitisdiscussingwithBrillianceChinaAutomotivethepossibilitythattheChinesecompanymightassembleits3-seriesand5-seriesmodelsinChina.Whatismore,theseglobalcarmakersareplanning,forthefirsttime,tointroducenewmodelsandupgradesinChinawithinmonthsoftheirlaunchinmorematuremarkets.ThisdevelopmentwillsurelyendthereignoftheVWSantana,a1970s-eramodelthathaslongbeenoutofproductionelsewherebut,offeredwithoutevenafaceliftforover15years,isChina抯best-sellingcar.China抯entryintotheWTOwillcutimporttariffsdrastically,heighteningpressureonlocalproducers(Exhibit3).Itwillalsoallowglobalcarmakerstoownbusinessesinwhichtheyhaveunmatchableadvantages:sales,service,anddistribution,aswellasloanservicestocarbuyers—servicesthataresuretobewelcomeinamarketwherepersonalcreditisscarce.网购上雀动,省钱又放心网购上雀动,省钱又放心:acapitalinvestmentof$1.5billionforGM抯Shanghaiplantalone,forexample,aswellas$1.7billionforthetwofacilitiesofVW抯jointventures.Thankstoprotectionoftheindustry,thisinvestmenthaslargelypaidoff:withtariffsrangingfrom80to100percent,modelsbearpricetagsupto150percenthigherthanthoseintheUnitedStatesandEurope,allowingsuccessfuljointventuresinChinatoenjoylevelsofprofitabilitynotseenanywhereelse.ForeachHondaAccord,togiveoneexample,Honda抯Guangzhoujointventuremakesover$3,000innetprofit,threetimesthenetprofitforacomparableUSmodel.Butgreatercompetitionisalreadysqueezingthosemargins.Evenwithtechnologyupgrades,thelistpriceofthestandardSantanafellby25percent,to115,000renminbi($13,850),inthefiveyearsuptoOctober2001.Astariffsfall,sowillprices.Meanwhile,salesandmarketingcostswillriseinamorecompetitivemarket,andmorefrequentmodelupgradesmeanthatheavierinvestmentwillconstantlybeneededtoretoolassemblyplants.Thisscenario—globalcompanies