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ChristofRühl,12June2013®BP2013BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergyJune2013bp.com/statisticalreview1Introduction22012inlong-termcontext3Fuelbyfuel4ConcludingremarksEnergyin2012–Adaptingtoachangingworld11.IntroductionWelcometothe62ndeditionoftheStatisticalReview.Whenthedusthassettled,2012willhaveproducedanumberofheadlines.Itwitnessedtheworld’sbiggestincreaseinoilandgassuppliesintheUS–andforoil,thebiggestincreaseinthecountry’shistory.2012witnessedthebiggestincreaseinhydropowerinonecountryaswellasthebiggestdeclineinnuclearenergyever.Threeoftheworld’sfourlargesteconomies(Germany,Japan,China),togetherrepresentingaquarterofglobalGDP,arenowrunningtheireconomieswithahighershareofrenewablesthanofnuclear.LNGtrade,ontheotherhand,declinedforfirsttimesincewehaverecords.Andrecordamountsofcoal,exiledfromtheUSbytheshalegasrevolution,wereshippedtoEurope.Whatholdsthesedisparatefactstogether?Asalways,itistheaimofthispresentationtoproviderigorousanalysisandaconsistentframeofreference.Onthefaceofit,energydevelopmentsin2012lookunsurprising.Consumptiongrowthslowedto1.8%,belowitstenyearaverage,andthatholdstrueforallfuelsbarrenewablesandhydropower,andinallregionsexceptAfrica–quiteinlinewithalacklustreeconomicperformanceoverall.Andyet,beneaththesurface,somanymovingparts.Ibelievethebestframeofreferencetodiscussthesediversedevelopmentsistothinkoftheyear2012asayearofadaptation–toachanginglandscape,inadditiontotherandomdisruptionswesooftenhavetoreport.Theenergysystemmovesslowly,everyoneagrees,butitdoesmove.Itisactuallygoodinadjustingtoachangingworld;sometimes,itwillevendrivechangeelsewhere.Thislongtermcontextisthebeststartingpointforassessingthedatatrailofayearinwhichenergymarketsappearedcalmonthesurface,butwithlotsofadjustmentsbelow.Wewillstartwithlong-termenergytrends.2.2012inlong-termcontextFirstamongthesetrendsistherelentlessshiftoftheworld’seconomiccentreofgravitytowardtheso-calleddevelopingworld,forourpurposessummarisedasthecountriesoutsidetheOECD.Overthelasttwentyyears,globalenergyconsumptionhasincreasedby52%.Overthelasttenyears,globalenergyconsumptionincreasedby30%,almostallofwhichoutsidetheOECD.Then,overthelast10yearaverage-3%0%3%6%NorthAmericaEurope&EurasiaS&CAmericaMiddleEastAsiaPacificAfricaEnergyin2012-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%GDPEnergyIntensityEnergyandGDPAnnualchange,%10yearaverageEnergygrowthbyregionAnnualchange,%BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy©BP2013Source:includesdatafromOxfordEconomics-2%0%2%4%6%8%GDPEnergyGDPEnergyLong-termenergytrendsBtoePrimaryenergydemandOECDNon-OECDAnnualchange,%34567199219962000200420082012OECDNon-OECDBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy©BP2013EnergyandGDPin201210yearaverageSource:includesdatafromOxfordEconomicsChristofRühl,London,June20132fiveyears,OECDconsumptionfell–fouroutoftheselastfiveyears,tobeprecise,andinthreeofthesefourdespitepositiveGDPgrowth.2012fitsrightin:OECDenergyconsumptiondeclinedby1.2%,despitepositiveGDPgrowth(1.4%),andhardontheheelsofasimilarresultfor2011.Inprimaryenergyconsumption,theOECDisnowbacktowhereitwasin2002–despitecumulativeGDPgrowthof26%overthatsameperiod.WehavelongheldthatOECDoilconsumptionisinstructuraldecline,andthereforeunlikelytoreturntoitspeakof2005.Surelyitistooearlytomakeasimilarcallforprimaryenergy;butjustascertain,thisisadevelopmentworthwatching.Thereisararelynotedcorollarytothisshiftinthecentreofgravity.Asthenon-OECDeconomiesindustrialise,theyalsounlockmoreresources.Weallmusthaveheardtheoccasionalutteranceaboutemergingmarketgrowthleadingtoenergyshortagesfortheprivilegedfew.ThedatatellusclearlythattheindustrialisingpartoftheworldnotonlyoutpacestheOECDintermsofconsumptiongrowth,italsocontributesafairsharetoenergyproduction:overthelasttenyears,thenon-OECDaccountedfor98%ofglobalproductiongrowth.In2012,thissharedroppedto92%inthewakeofthesoaringUSoutputfromshaleformationsanddeceleratingcoalproductiongrowthinChina(3.5%).Overallthistime,oilandgasreserveskeptrising.2012sawanotheradditiontooilreserves(15billionbarrels).Gasreserves,however,recordedtheirfirstdeclineeverinourdatabase(-0.5Tcm).Ofallthecountriesintheworld,itwasdrivenbylowerpricesandreduceddrillingactivityintheUS.Keepinmindthatprovedreserves,differentfromtechnicallyrecoverablereserves,willchangenotonlywithtechnologyanddiscovery,butwithpricesaswell.ThisiswhathappenedintheUS.Overall,provedoilreserveswere26%higherthanadecadeago,and60%higherthanin1992–despitetheproductionofnearly600billionbarrelsofoiloverthepasttwodecades.Provedgasreservesareup21%overthepastdecadeand59%comparedto1992.Thelastdecadehasseenanunprecedentedriseinenergyprices–somuchsothatsomeofusmayhavegottenusedtotheideaoffurthergrowth.Ininflationadjustedterms,averageannualoilprices(Brent)forthelastfiveyearswere230%higherthanforthesameperiodtenyearsago;forcoal,theincreasewas140%;andfornaturalgas,90%.Overthelastfiveyears,thespreadacrossfossilfuelpriceshaswidenedaswell.ReservesandproductionOilreservesTrillionbbls0.00.40.81.21.62.019821992200220121982199220022012050100150200250OtherNorthAmericaFSUOPECTcmBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy©BP2013-100-50050100150S&CAmeric