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1摘要城际客运铁路是一种新型的公交化快速轨道交通系统，城际列车作为铁路运输企业的拳头产品，在其设计和推向市场的过程中，运输企业应对城际列车的经营效果进行预测并作相应控制。在了解了国内外城际旅客列车运营现状的基础上，根据我国铁路客运现状，提出了城际列车的概念，着重分析了城际列车在开行条件、运行距离、服务质量等方面的要求；从分析影响旅客列车客运量的因素入手，利用灰色理论构建旅客列车开行方案的客运量GM(1，h)预测模型并评价其经济效益和经营风险，为铁路运输企业设计旅客列车开行方案提供科学依据；提出两种符合中国国情的城际旅客列车运营模式，为城际列车的运营和发展奠定了良好的基础；通过对公交化城际列车的运营时刻表及其优化进行深入研究，有助于旅客运输市场多种资源的有效利用；最后针对城际列车的管理体系提出了相应的战略对策，以保证旅客运营的相关决策更加经济化、合理化。关键词：铁路城际列车客运量预测运营模式公交化时刻表SummaryTheintercitypassengerdedicatedrailwayisanewkindofpublictransportfastorbittrafficsystem,theintercitytrainasthekeyproductoftherailwaytransportationenterprise,duringitsdesignwithpushontothemarket,thetransportationenterpriseshouldforecastandcontrolthemanagementeffectoftheintercitytrain.Understandingtheoperationalstatusoftheintercitypassengerdedicatedrailwayathomeandabroad,accordingtothepresentsituationofrailwaypassengertransportationinChina,putforwardtheconceptoftheintercitytrain,emphaticallyanalysestherequestofthebeginningconditions,tripdistanceServiceQuality...etc.;Startwithanalysisinginfluence'straveller'srailwaytrainpassengertransportation'sfactorofthequantitycommenceandmakinguseofgraytheoriestosetupthepassengertransportationthattraveller'srailwaytrainstartspassenger2volumeGM(1,h)predictingthemodelandevaluatesingitseconomicbenefitandbusinessrisk,fortherailwaytransportationenterprisetoprovidethescientificbasisofpassengertrainbeginningscheme;Putforwardtwokindsofintercitypassengertrainconformingtothesituationinchina,establishthegoodfoundationoftheintercitytrainoperationanddevelopment;Duringthefurtherstudyofthepublictrasportintercitytrain’soperationtimetableandoptimize,helpfultotheeffectiveutilizationofthepassengertransportmarketmulti-resources;Atlast,accordingtothemanagementsystemoftheintercitytrain,putforwardthecorrespondingstrategiccountermeasure,guaranteestherelevantdecisionsofthepassengeroperationmoreeconomyandreasonable.Keyword:railwayinterciytrainpassengervolumepredictionoperationmodepublictransporttimetable关键词：铁路城际列车客运量预测运营模式公交化时刻表3目录前言...........................................................................................................................1第一章城际铁路运营概述.......................................................................................21.1城际列车的概念分析............................................................................................21.2城际列车开行的条件............................................................................................31.2.1区域条件............................................................................................................31.2.2运能条件............................................................................................................31.2.3设备条件............................................................................................................41.3城际列车的要求....................................................................................................51.3.1运行距离............................................................................................................51.3.2列对密度............................................................................................................51.3.3旅行速度............................................................................................................61.3.4较高的服务质量................................................................................................7第二章国内外城际列车发展状况...........................................................................82.1国外城际列车开行情况........................................................................................82.2我国城际列车开行情况........................................................................................92.3城际列车的发展阶段..........................................................................................10第三章城际列车开行方案的客运量预测及评价.................................................133.1影响列车客运量的因素分析..............................................................................133.2预测模型..............................................................................................................143.2.1选择与评价......................................................................................................143.2.2客运量预测模型与计算..................................................................................153.3城际列车开行方案评价......................................................................................153.3.1方案的经济效益.............................................................................................163.3.2方案的经营风险..............................................................................................16第四章城际旅客列车运营模式探讨.....................................................................184.1旅客列车运营模式的市场需求..........................................................................184.2修建跨经济区的城际铁路模式..........................................................................1944.2.1修建跨经济区长大客运专线的主要原因......................................................194.2.2跨经济区长大客运专线的技术特征..............................................................204.2.3跨经济区长大客运专线