俄罗斯移动通信及移动应用市场概况

ÓRussia-Mobile,MobileContent&ApplicationsOverview&Statistics.doc2/05/20091©CopyrightPaulBuddeCommunicationPtyLtd,2008ÓÓPaulBuddeCommunicationPtyLtdRussia-Mobile,MobileContent&ApplicationsOverview&Statistics1.SYNOPSISRussiahasthelargestmobilemarketinEurope.Therapidlygrowingsectorisdominatedbythreemajorserviceproviders(MTS,VimpelComandMegaFon),whichhaveexpandednationallythroughacquisitionsofsmallerregionalserviceproviders.MVNOshavealsolaunchedservices.CompetitioninthekeymarketsofMoscowandStPetersburgisfierce,duetohigherARPUandMOUlevels.MobileSIMcardpenetrationhassurpassed100%althoughactualmobileuserpenetrationislower.WhileARPUlevelshavestabilised,MOUlevelsareontherise,partlyattributedtoimprovedmarketing.FuturemobilegrowthwillcontinuetobedrivenbyvoiceintheshorttomediumtermuntilavailabilityandpenetrationofrecentlylaunchedUMTS/3Gservicesishighenoughtoofferaffordableanddesirablemobiledataandcontentservicesonasufficientscale.ThisreportprovidesaconciseoverviewofRussia’smobilemarket,coveringregulatorydevelopments,themajormobileoperators,technologiesusedandmobiledata,contentandapplications,inadditiontoavarietyoffinancialandoperationalstatistics.2.MOBILECOMMUNICATIONS2.1OVERVIEW&ANALYSISOFRUSSIA’SMOBILEMARKETRussia’smobilemarketisthelargestinEuropeintermsofthenumberofsubscribersandisthelargesttelecomsmarketsectorinRussia,generatinganestimatedUS$18.3billionin2007.Numerousmobilenetworkoperatorsofferservicesalthoughthemarketisdominatedbythreemajorplayersofferingservicesnationally.Theremainingoperators,manyofwhichhaveundergoneconsolidation,offerservicesataregionallevel.CompetitionisstrongestinMoscow,themostlucrativemarketduetothecity’sconcentrationofwealth.MobileSIMcardpenetrationhassurpassed100%althoughmobileuserpenetrationwasestimatedat80%asatend-2006.Marketgrowthlevelsarestabilisingafterpeakingin2005.MonthlyAverageRevenueperUser(ARPU)levelsfellforaperiodandbottomedoutduring2006asagreaternumberoflower-spendingsubscriberstookupmobileservicesforthefirsttime.ARPUlevelshavesincerisentoapproximatelyUS$10intheyeartoSeptember2007duetorisingMinutesofUse(MOU)levelsinresponsetotargetedmarketingpromotions.IncreasingMOUwillcontinuetoliftARPUlevels,withbothVimpelComandMTSexpectingMOUlevelstorise10%annuallyinlinewithgrowingrealincomesandrisingfixed-linetariffsduetotheremovalofcrosssubsidies.OverallMOUwas130minutesin2007–lowcomparedwithapproximately250minutesfortheUKand600minutesfortheUSA.Otherrevenuegrowthopportunitiesincludethehighproportionofprepaidusersandrelativelylowmobiledatausage.Availabledatashowsthatprepaidusersasapercentageoftotalmobileusersishighatabout95%.OperatorsincountrieswithsimilarmarketcharacteristicshavegrownARPUlevelsbymigratingprepaiduserstopostpaidplans,withsubscribersofsuchplanstendingtospendmore.Widespreadmobiledatausagehasbeenconstrainedbythelackof3GservicesbarthoseavailablefromtheCDMAoperators.ThisisexpectedtoimprovefollowingtheawardingofWCDMA3Glicencestothethreemajormobileoperators,allofwhichexpressedreservationsabout3GservicesduetoconcernsaboutachievinganadequateReturnonInvestment(ROI),concernswhichareunderstandablegiventhatmobiledataisnotexpectedtobeasignificantrevenuegrowthdriveruntil2010.Mobiledataaccountedfor14%ofARPUduring2006,althoughthisisexpectedtoriseto22%by2012.Inthelongterm,theeventualshiftintrafficpatternstowardsmobiledatamaydisadvantagesmallerregionaloperators,manyofwhichdonothavethefinancialbackingtomakethenecessarycapitalexpenditure.VimpelComhasexecutedalessobviousgrowthstrategy,agreeinginDecember2007toacquire100%ofalternativefixed-lineoperatorGoldenTelecominordertotransformintoanintegratedserviceÓRussia-Mobile,MobileContent&ApplicationsOverview&Statistics.doc2/05/20092©CopyrightPaulBuddeCommunicationPtyLtd,2008providerwithanestablishedpositioninhigh-growthbroadband,convergence,dataandmobilemarkets.GoldenTelecomhasanextensivepresenceinthebroadbandandconvergencemarket,offeringbroadbandservicesviaFibre-to-the-Building(FttB),WiFiandxDSLandInternetProtocolTV(IPTV)services.MTSalsoplanstoexpandintofixedbroadbandservices.MergerandacquisitionactivityhasnotbeenlimitedtowithinRussia,withthemajoroperatorsacquiringsmallermobileoperatorsinUkraine,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,KyrgyzstanandBelarus.VimpelComwentfurther,establishingamobileoperatorthroughjointventureagreementinVietnamin2007.2.1.1MobilehandsetsHandsetretailerEurosetestimatedthattotalmobilehandsetsalesinRussiaamountedtoUS$6.8billionin2007,up21%overtheyear.PhonesintheUS$200-299pricebracketwerethemostpopular.Nokiawasthemostpopularhandsetvendorduring2007,accountingfor31%ofoverallsales,followedbySamsung(25%),SonyEricssonat(17%)andMotorola8%.Table1–Totalhandsetssoldandvalue–2004-2007YearVolumesoldValue(million)(US$billion)200430.24.3200533.55.5200629.35.7200732.56.8(Source:BuddeCommbasedonindustrydata)Thefivelargestmobilehandsetretailers,Euroset,Svyaznoi,DIXIS,TsifrogradandBetalink,accountforapproximately78%oftotalmobilehandsetsales.ThelargestretailerEurosethasover5,000outletsandoperatesinRussia,Ukraine,Kazakhstan,Belarus,Kyrgyzstan,Uzbekistan,Lithuania,