XXXX第三章经济核算与环境

第三章经济核算与环境EconomicAccountingandEnvironment第一节经济核算第二节经济增长与人类福利第三节经济增长与环境2019/8/1722第一节经济核算EconomicAccounting一、经济部门分类EconomicSectorClassification•很多国家都有自己的经济部门分类Mostcountrieshaveaclassificationsystemfortheireconomicsectors–US(previouslySIC–StandardIndustrialClassification)–NowNAICS(NorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem)–UN(SNA–SystemofNationalAccounts)2019/8/1733经济部门分类EconomicSectorClassification•分类有利于Thisclassificationfacilitates–经济产出和投入的系统核算（国民收入和产品账户）Systematicaccountingoftheoutputoftheeconomyanduseoftheoutput(NationalIncomeandProductAccountsNIPA)–监测和报告绩效，如GDPMonitoringandreportingofperformancemeasuressuchasGrossDomesticProduct–比较和基准Comparisonandbenchmarking–规划和预测[投入产出分析]Planningandforecasting[Input-OutputAnalysis]2019/8/1744行业分类MajorindustriesinChinaA农林牧渔业Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHuntingB采矿业MiningC制造业ManufacturingD电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业Utilitiesandsupplyindustryonelectricity,heat,gasandwaterE建筑业ConstructionF批发和零售业WholesaleTradeandRetailTradeG交通运输、仓储和邮政业Transportation,storageandpostalservicesI信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业transferinformation,softwareandITservices2019/8/175资料来源：国家统计局金融业FinancialIndustryK房地产业RealEstateL租赁和商务服务业LeasingandBusinessServicesM科学研究和技术服务业scientificandtechnicalservicesN水利、环境和公共设施管理业Water,environmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementindustryO居民服务、修理和其他服务业residentservices,repairsandotherservicesP教育EducationQ卫生和社会工作HealthandsocialworkR文化、体育和娱乐业Culture,SportsandEntertainmentS公共管理、社会保障和社会组织publicadministration,socialsecurityandsocialorganizationsT国际组织InternationalOrganizations52019/8/1766A农林牧渔业Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHunting01农业•011谷物种植–0111稻谷种植–0112小麦种植–0113玉米种植–0119其他谷物种植•012豆类、油料和薯类种植•013棉、麻、糖、烟草种植•014蔬菜、食用菌及园艺作物种植•015水果种植•016坚果、含油果、香料和饮料作物种植•0170170中药材种植•0190190其他农业2019/8/17702林业•021林木育种和育苗–0211林木育种–0212林木育苗•0220220造林和更新•0230230森林经营和管护•024木材和竹材采运–0241木材采运–0242竹材采运•025林产品采集–0251木竹材林产品采集–0252非木竹材林产品采集2019/8/1788二、投入产出分析Input-OutputAnalysis•经济是由复杂而相互依存的部分（农业、制造业、服务业、政府、消费者、其它国家等）组成的Theeconomyconsistsofcomplexandinterdependentsectors(Ag-Mfg-Service-Govt-Consumers-Othercountries)•1、投入产出分析的概念•★投入产出分析是一种运用会计和简单的模型来表达农业、制造业、服务业、政府、消费者、其它国家等相互依存的经济关系Input-outputanalysisisanaccountingandsimplemodelingtechniquetorepresenttheseeconomicinterdependencies•区域投入产出分析是在区域水平上的投入产出分析Regionalinput-outputanalysisisIOanalysisdoneataregionallevel2019/8/1799以GDP作为衡量经济效果和福利的问题ProblemswithGDPasameasureofeconomicperformanceandwellbeing•包括了防御性支出Includesdefensiveexpenditures–E.g.FluepidemicorHurricanesorpollutioncontrolexpendituresorwaronterror•没扣除自然、社会或人力资本DoesnotdeductdepreciationofNatural,Social,orHumancapital[onlymanmadecapitalisdepreciatedincalculatingNDP]–Ores,fossilfuelstockreduction–Marineresourceloss,deforestation,airandwaterqualitychanges–Lossofinstitutions,skills•没包括所有非市场商品和服务Excludesallnon-marketgoodsandservices–Environmental/Ecosystemservices–Homeservices–Leisure第二节经济增长与人类福利EconomicGrowthandHumanWellbeing一、贫富二、贫富差异的原因三、推动经济增长的因素四、经济增长的愿景五、衡量福利的非经济指标六、需要与欲望一、贫富Therichandthepoor★经济增长的关键点Keyideasoneconomicgrowth•一个时期内的生产力Productionwithinaperiod–howtomodel•跨时期的增长Growthacrossperiods–Bycapitalaccumulation–Bytechnologyraisingproductivity二、贫富差异的原因★Whyaresomecountriesrichandsomepoor?1、自然资源和条件差异Naturalresources&conditions2、增长率不同Growthrate–Whyhavesomegrownmorethanothers?2019/8/1713WhyEconomicGrowthseemsdesirable:1.人均寿命与人均GDP的关系LongevityandGDP/capita2019/8/17142.婴幼儿死亡率与人均GDP的关系InfantmortalityandGDP/capita2019/8/17153.成人识字率与人均GDP的关系LiteracyandGDP/capita2019/8/17164、幸福感与人均收入HappinessandIncomepercapita2019/8/1717三、经济增长的趋动力★WhatDrivesEconomicGrowth?P146•一定时期内的生产函数取决于资本存量和劳动力Withinaperiod:Productionfunction–Capitalstock,Labor•不同时期则取决于Changesbetweenperiods–储蓄、投资和资本积累Savings,investment&capitalaccumulation–技术进步TechnologicalchangeP156•Endogenous(functionofR&Dinvestmentinknowledgeandhumancapital)•Exogenous2019/8/17181、经济增长模型ModelingEconomicGrowth:1)生产函数ProductionFunctionP147NationalIncome=output(Y)Y=f(capital,labor,naturalresources)-TreatNRasaspecialcategory(ofcapital)Y=f(K,L,R)Y=Kα×Lβ×RδCobb-DouglasProductionFunction(α+β+δ=1forconstantreturnstoscale)Y=K0.2×L0.7×R0.1(解释模型illustrativemodel)2019/8/17192)储蓄、投资和资本积累Savings,InvestmentandCapitalaccumulationP149•S=sYs=savingsrate•St=ItI=Investment•Kt=Kt-1+ItMoreyousave,largeriscapitalstocknextyear,hencehigheryouroutputIfSavingsratePopulationgrowth–Thencapitalperworkerisincreasing,somoreoutputpercapita–Butdecliningmarginalproductivityofcapital,sorateofincomegrowthdeclining(duetoshapeofproductionfunction)2019/8/17203、技术与效率TechnologyandProductivityP155生产函数Y=K0.2×L0.7×R0.1加上效率因素(a,b,c)Y=aK0.2×bL0.7×cR0.1如果a,borc≠1.0，结果会怎么样？Whatifa,borc≠1.0?2019/8/1721Productivityandgrowthrate假设=a×b×c,那么:Y=(K0.2×L0.7×R0.1)•如果低效率国家LE的=1，而高效率国家ME的=1.2•那么在相同的初始状态L,K,R和储蓄率下，高效率国家有高产出和高收入SameinitialL,K,Randsavingsrate•MEwillalwayshavehigheroutput/income2019/8/1722TimeYLE(=1.0)ME(=1.2)Incomegrowthratesformore-efficient(ME)andless-efficient(LE)productivityYt=t(Kt0.2xLt0.7xRt0.1)2019/8/1723Whatdrivesefficiency?•外生性增长Exogenousefficiencygrowth–Luckybreaks:Goodweather