Urbanization and Water Pollution in China

U05-13POLICYANDGOVERNANCErbanizationandwaterpollutioninChinaChiekoItoAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentTHEAUSTRALIANNATIONALUNIVERSITY©ChiekoIto2005ThePolicyandGovernanceProgramattheAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentpublishesaseriesofDiscussionPapersonarangeofpolicyissues,includingissuesofpoliticalinstitutionsandinstitutionaldesign,accountabilityandpublicsectormanagement,andtherelationshipbetweenpoliticalandeconomicreform.TheDiscussionPapersdisseminateresearchquicklyinordertogeneratecommentsandsuggestionsforrevisionorimprovement.Sincetheyoftenrepresentpreliminaryorincompletework,citationanduseofsuchapapershouldtakeaccountofitsprovisionalcharacter.Theopinionscontainedintheseriesarethoseoftheauthors,andnotthoseoftheAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernmentatTheAustralianNationalUniversity.PolicyandGovernanceDiscussionPaper05-13ChiekoIto([e-mail])was,attimeofwriting,completingaMasterofPublicPolicydegreespecialisinginDevelopmentAdministrationattheAsiaPacificSchoolofEconomicsandGovernment,theAustralianNationalUniversity,andgraduatedinJuly2005.AbstractThispaperstatisticallyexaminestherelationshipbetweenthequalityofdrinkingwaterandurbanization,withafocusoncitiesinChina.Aftercontrollingtheeffectsofgovernmenteffortsandsocio-economicenvironments,theregressionanalysisshowsthatbothpopulationsizeandpopulationgrowthhavesignificantlynegativeimpactsonwaterquality.ThissuggeststhatwastewatertreatmentsystemsinurbancitiesinChinadonothavethecapacitytoaccommodateforboththepopulationsizeandthepopulationgrowth.1UrbanizationandWaterPollutioninChina*ChiekoItoJuly2005AbstractThispaperstatisticallyexaminestherelationshipbetweenthequalityofdrinkingwaterandurbanization,withafocusoncitiesinChina.Aftercontrollingtheeffectsofgovernmenteffortsandsocio-economicenvironments,theregressionanalysisshowsthatbothpopulationsizeandpopulationgrowthhavesignificantlynegativeimpactsonwaterquality.ThissuggeststhatwastewatertreatmentsystemsinurbancitiesinChinadonothavethecapacitytoaccommodateforboththepopulationsizeandthepopulationgrowth.ThisdiscussionpaperisarevisedversionofaPolicyAnalysisReportwrittenaspartoftherequirementsformasterinpublicpolicy,AustralianNationalUniversity.*Iwouldliketoexpressmygreatgratitudetomysupervisor,Dr.YusakuHORIUCHI,forhisconstantencouragementandtheusefuladviceonstatisticalmethodology.MythanksalsogotomyChinesefriends,especiallyMr.HuaJIN,forassistingmewiththetranslationofsomereferencesfromChinesetoEnglish.IalsothankMs.AngelaGARDINERforcorrectingmyEnglish.2I.IntroductionInrecentyears,theinternationalcommunityhaspaidattentiontothewaterqualityproblem,especiallysinceAgenda21,whichistheactionplantoprotecttheenvironment,wasadoptedin1992(WHO/UNEP1997:10.1.1).Inaddition,intheUnitedNationsMillenniumDevelopmentGoals,oneofthegoalsisto‘reducebyhalftheproportionofpeoplewithoutsustainableaccesstosafedrinkingwater’(UnitedNations2000).Ithasbeeninternationallyacknowledgedthatwaterproblemsareatacrisispointforhumanlifeaswellastheenvironment.Alongthislineofgrowinginternationalconcern,thispaperexaminesthedeterminantsofthequalityofdrinkingwaterwithafocusonurbancitiesinChina.InChina,wherepopulationsizeisthebiggestintheworldandenvironmentaldestructionisproceedingduetotherapideconomicgrowthandurbanization,thereisaseriouswaterpollutionproblem.Since1949waterpollutioncausedbyindustrialwastewaterhasincreased,andespeciallysincetheeconomicreforminthe1970s,pollutionhasescalated1(Banister1998:995);atthesametimethepopulationinurbanareasdoubledfrom1978to1995(Shen1998:38-9),duetomigrationfromruralareastourbancities2(Banister1998:1011;Shen1998:33),andurbanizationemergedrapidly(Shen1998:38-9),withpopulationgrowthandindustrialization.By1996,followingthegovernmentpolicythatindustrialenterprisesshouldtreattheirwastewater,82percentofindustrialwastewaterinurbanareaswastreated;however,muchofthesewageinurbanareasgoesuntreatedandisdumpedintoriversandlakes.1Untilthe1970stheChinesegovernmentencouragedheavyindustries,whichtendtoemitmorepollutionperunitofproduction(Zhangetal1999:26-7).Evenafterthetransitiontoamarketeconomyinthe1970s,heavyindustrieswerestillencouraged;especially,thetownshipenterprises,suchasfertilizer,textile,cementandmachineryfactories,whichtendnottocontrolpollutionduetolessmonitoringfromthegovernment,werestronglyencouraged(Zhangetal1999:26-7).Thesearethecauseofincreasingpollution.2ThepopulationinChinahasgrownrapidlysince1949(Shen1998:32).Especially,thetotalpopulationinurbanareasincreaseddramatically.AccordingtoShen(1998:38),theurbanpopulationwillmorethandoublefrom1995to2040.Themostimportantcauseofpopulationgrowthinurbanareasismigrationfromruralareastourbancities.Sincetheeconomicreform,therestrictionofmigrationhasbeenloosened(Banister1998:1011).Asaresult,ruralmigrantsintourbancitieshaveincreaseddrastically(Banister1998:1011;Shen1998:33).3Asaresult,surfacewaterandgroundwaterhavebeenincreasinglypollutedduetoindustrialanddomesticwastewaterandalsoagri