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X19942006:,,,(),1,01785;1,212;,,,,,,:IS,,(116025);,(116025)X(:70873015,70473012)(:05jjd910153)(:2006R18,2008RC18),2008,2070,,,2007,,2030,,,,,;,,,,,,89,,,,,,,,,,,,(TaylorRule),,,,,,,,,ThomtonFisherThomton:,Fisher,1945,,,Simons,(Fisher2SimonsPriceLevelRule)Friedman1960,TaylorGNP,McCallum,Taylor,Svensson,,,;,,,,Taylor1879191419551997,99H.Thomton,AnEnquiryintotheNatureandEffectsofthePaperCreditofGreatBritain,editedbyF.A.Hayek,Fairfield:AugustusM.KelleyPublishers,1978.I.Fisher,StabilizingtheDollar,NewYork:MacmillanPublishingCompany,1920.H.C.Simons,EconomicPolicyforaFreeSociety,Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,1948.M.Friedman,AProgramforMonetaryStability,NewYork:FordhamUniversityPress,1960.J.B.Taylor,WhatWouldNominalGNPTargetingDototheBusinessCycle?Camegie2RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,vol.22,1985,pp.61284.B.T.McCallum,RobustnessPropertiesofaRuleforMonetary,Camegie2RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,vol.29,1988,pp.1732204.J.B.Taylor,DiscretionversusPolicyRulesinPractice,Camegie2RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,vol.39,1993,pp.1952214.LarsSvensson,InflationForecastTargeting:ImplementingandMonitoringInflationTargets,EuropeanEconomicReview,vol.41,1997,pp.111121146.,,;,,Mehra,19791997,,,1997,Ball,,BorioLowe,,BullardSchaling,,,,LWW,Clarida,,,,,lu,,lv,,,,,,:,;00120092lulvJ.B.Taylor,AnHistoricalAnalysisofMonetaryPolicyRules,NBERWorkingPaper,no.6768,1998.Y.P.Mehra,AForward2lookingMonetaryPolicyReactionFunction,EconomicQuarterly(FederalReserveBankofRichmond),April1,1999.BenS.BernankeandMichaelWoodford,InflationForecastsandMonetaryPolicy,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,vol.29,no.4,1997,pp.6532684.A.Levin,V.Wieland,andJ.C.Williams,RobustnessofSimpleMonetaryPolicyRulesunderModelUncertainty,NBERWorkingPaper,no.6570,1998.L.Ball,EfficientRulesforMonetaryPolicy,NBERWorkingPaper,no.5952,1997.C.BorioandP.Lowe,AssetPrices,FinancialandMonetaryStability:ExploringtheNexus,BISWorkingPaper,no.114,2002.J.BullardandE.Schaling,WhytheFedShouldIgnoretheStockMarket,FederalReserveBankofSt.LouisReview,vol.84,2002,pp.35241.:,20023:,2004:,20063:,20063:,20062,;,Granger;,PhillipsIS;,,;2080,,90,,,,,,Taylor,,():Rt=r+pat+12pat-3+12yt(1),Rt;r;pat();3;ytTaylor199319851992,r=2%,3=2%,pat,GDP,:Rt=2+pat+12pat-2+12yt(2)Taylor,,yt=0,,pat-3=0,Rt-pat=r,1,115;1,0151987,,,,,,,,Rt-pat,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,101J.B.Taylor,DiscretionversusPolicyRulesinPractice,pp.1952214.,,Clarida,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.,,Taylor,GDP,Kozicki(),CPICPIGDP,,,016318,(CPI)(RPI),CPI,CPICPI,CPI,=(CPI-1)100%19942006,4%,2.GDPGDP,20120092R.Clarida,J.GaliandM.Gertler,MonetaryPolicyRulesandMacroeconomicStability:EvidenceandSomeTheory,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,vol.115,no.1,2000,pp.1472180.SharonKozicki,MultivariateDetrendingunderCommonTrendRestrictions:ImplicationsforBusinessCycleResearch,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,vol.23,no.7,1999,pp.99721028.2000,,2000,,20001,Phillips,,GDPGDP,,GDP,GDP=[GDP/(CPI)]100,X211,GDP,,:,Kozicki,019214,,GDP,,GDP,,,GDPGDP,,,GDP,,GDP,,GDP,GDP,X211,,:D1=10,D2=10,D3=10GDP,(S.E.,):LNGDP=91600+01027T-01445D1-01315D2-01301D3(3)(01051)(01001)(01053)(01052)(01054)S.E.R2=01917,R2=01910,F(4,50)=1241131,DW=1105011994120062GDPGDP(,LNGDPGDP,LNGDPFGDP)2GDP(,LNGDPQKGDP)301SharonKozicki,MultivariateDetrendingunderCommonTrendRestrictions:ImplicationsforBusinessCycleResearch,pp.99721028.GDP;GDP:,,98005,1998;:,20023:,20023:,200110,,,GDP;,CPI,GDPGDP,,HPGDP,GDP,,,,1992,GDP,GDP,,,GDP,1994120062,50,,,19941,,199411994120062GDPGDP2GDP3.,,,40120092,,,,,,1984,,7,2090,,19931995,199620067,,Kozicki,4.,,Henry,,,,,354050,,,35Wind,5.(),(),Granger1.,ADFPP(LNI)501,19941995;199620037,,:,20023SharonKozicki,MultivariateDetrendingunderCommonTrendRestrictions:ImplicationsforBusinessCycleResearch,pp.99721028.O.P.Henry,DataSourcesforMeasuringHousePriceChanges,JournalofHousingResearch,vol.6,no.3,1995,pp.3772387.(HD)(LNGDPQK)(LNSHI)(LNSZI)(LNHI),,LN:1994120062,I(1)2.Granger1(LNI)(HD)(LNGDPQK)(LNSHI)(LNSZI)(LNHI)Granger,1AICSC1GrangerFPHDLNIGranger4910113901003LNIHDGranger11102601002LNGDPQKLNIGranger490100101973LNILNGDPQKGranger0173101397LNSHILNIGranger492182601099LNILNSHIGranger0141201524LNSZILNIGranger495159801022LNILNSZIGranger0100301953LNHILNIGranger497119001010LNILNHIGranger3119801080,Granger,,GDP,3.2080Granger,,,Johansen,,,pAICSCp,p,(),,,(LNI)(HD)(LNSHILNSZI)GDP(LNGDPQK)(LNHI)(1):LNI=-611410-01060HD+41700LNGDPQK-21690LNSHI+11010LNSZI(41314)(01024)(11644)(01758)(01477)+151710LNHI+01010@TREND(942)(41521)(01016)S.E.(4):;GDP,60120092,,Johansen,SCAIC,1,:LNI=391170+01320HD+01690LNGDPQK-01720LNSHI-71000LNHI(31894)(01094)(01958)(01229)(41212)+01030@TREND(942)(01014)S.E.(5),,0132;GDP0169;-0172;-71033,,,,PhillipsIS1.Phillips,PhillipsGDP,GDPPhillips,GDPGDP,Phillips,,,,701GlennRudebuschandLarsSvensson,PolicyRulesforInflationTargeting,inJ.B.Taylor,ed.,MonetaryPolicyRules,Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,1999;L.Fanelli,TestingtheNewKeynesianPhillipsCurvethroughVectorAutoregressiveModels:ResultsfromtheEuroArea,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,vol.70,no.1,2007,pp.53266.:,20014:,20063Ph