上海海事大学管理学原理英文版PPT第四章

TheManagerasaDecisionMakerStepsinDecisionMakingProcess？TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMaking？CognitiveBiasesandDecisionMaking？GroupDecision？LearningObjectivesStepsinDecisionMakingProcess？TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMaking？CognitiveBiasesandDecisionMaking？GroupDecision？LearningObjectives1–4TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMakingDecisionmakingisapartofallmanagers’jobProcessbywhichmanagersrespondtoopportunitiesandthreatsbyanalyzingoptions,andmakingdecisionsaboutgoalsandcoursesofactionDecision:Achoicemadefromavailablealternatives.Decisionmaking:1–5ManagersrespondtowaystoimproveorganizationalperformanceOccurswhenmanagersareimpactedbyadverseeventstotheorganizationResponsetoOpportunitiesResponsetoThreatsTypesofDecisionMaking1–6TypesofDecisionMakingNon-ProgrammedDecisionMakingProgrammedDecisionMakingRoutine,almostautomaticprocessTherearerulesandguidelinestofollowUnusualsituationsthathavenotbeenoftenaddressed.Norulestofollowsincethedecisionisnew1–7ExamplesofManagerialDecision-MakingSituationFast-foodrestaurantTypeofOrganizationProgrammedDecisionNon-programmedDecisionUniversityAuto-makerDeterminesupplierstobereorderedIdentifylocationfornewfranchiseDecideifstudentsmeetgraduationrequirementsChoosenewacademicprogramsDetermineunionemployeepayratesSelectnewcardesign1–8ManagementLevelFirst-lineMiddleTopNon-programmedDecisionProgrammedDecisionThehighmanagementlevelamanageron,themorenon-programmeddecisionheshouldmake1–9DecisionMakingModelTheClassicalModelListalternatives&consequencesRankeachalternativefromlowtohighSelectbestalternativeAssumesallinformationisavailabletomanagerAssumesmanagercanprocessinformationAssumesmanagerknowsthebestfuturecourseoftheorganizationAssumption1–10DecisionMakingModelTheAdministrativeModelDevelopedbyJamesMarchandHerbertSimonUncertainandriskyprocessBoundedrationalityIncompleteinformationSatisficingCognitivelimitationsconstraindecisionmakingabilityRiskandUncertaintyAmbiguityTimeandcostconstraintsAcceptableandsatisfactorydecisionratherthanoptimumoneStepsinDecisionMakingProcess？TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMaking？CognitiveBiasesandDecisionMaking？GroupDecision？LearningObjectives1–12StepsintheDecisionMakingProcessRecognizeneedforadecisionFrametheproblemGenerate&assessalternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackStepsintheDecisionMakingProcess1–13RecognizeneedforadecisionGeneratealternativesEvaluatealternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackManagersmustfirstrealizethatadecisionmustbemade1–14StepsintheDecisionMakingProcessRecognizeneedforadecisionGeneratealternativesEvaluatealternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackManagersmustdevelopfeasiblealternativecoursesofactionStepsintheDecisionMakingProcess1–15RecognizeneedforadecisionGeneratealternativesEvaluatealternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackWhataretheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachalternativeLegal?EthicalEconomical?Practical?1–16StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess1–16RecognizeneedforadecisionGeneratealternativesEvaluatealternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackManagersrankalternativesanddecide.StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess1–17RecognizeneedforadecisionGeneratealternativesEvaluatealternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackManagersmustnowcarryoutthealternativeStepsintheDecisionMakingProcess1–18RecognizeneedforadecisionGeneratealternativesEvaluatealternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackManagersshouldconsiderwhatwentrightandwrongwiththedecisionandlearnforthefutureStepsinDecisionMakingProcess？TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMaking？CognitiveBiasesandDecisionMaking？GroupDecision？LearningObjectives1–20CognitivebiasesareinevitableindecisionmakingprocessDanielKahnemanAmosTverskyHeuristicsRulesofthumbSystematicErrorsSimplifycomplexinformation1–21PriorHypothesisRepresentativenessIllusionofControlEscalatingCommitmentCognitiveBiasesTypicalCognitiveBiasesSource1–22PriorHypothesisRepresentativenessIllusionofControlEscalatingCommitmentCognitiveBiasesTypicalCognitiveBiasesSourceMakedecisionbasedonpriorbelief1–23PriorHypothesisRepresentativenessIllusionofControlEscalatingCommitmentCognitiveBiasesTypicalCognitiveBiasesSourceMakedecisionbasedonsmallsampleorsinglecase1–24PriorHypothesisRepresentativenessIllusionofControlEscalatingCommitmentCognitiveBiasesTypicalCognitiveBiasesSourceMakedecisionbasedonoverestimateability1–25PriorHypothesisRepresentativenessIllusionofControlEscalatingCommitmentCognitiveBiasesTypicalCognitiveBiasesSourceIgnoreadverseevidenceandincreaseinvestmentStepsinDecisionMakingProcess？TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMaking？CognitiveBiasesandDecisionMaking？GroupDecision？LearningObjectives1–27GroupDecisionReducecognitivebiasesCalloncombinedskills,andabilitiesEnsuresuccessfullyimplementLongerdecisionmakingprocessThedangerofGroupthinkAdvantageDisadvantage1–28GroupDecisionMakingMethodsConfirmQuestionExpertsanswerquestionna