全球煤炭供求格局与价格变动趋势分析

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©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()Jul.,2008314JournalofShanxiUniversity(Philosophy&SocialScience)Vol.31No.41,2,3(1.,100029;2.,100029;3.,100029):,80%,,,2008,,,2009-2015,,,:;;;:F402.7:A:1000-5935(2008)04-0083-07,,12112,,210,,,58%30%,8%;,60%(25%)(17%)(12%),429%,780%,,,2006,383%,,,200118%,(1.93)(1.1)(8400),2006343%Btu(),OECD,4.55Btu/,12.25Btu/[1]12-1550,2050,19501818.219602571.6,41.4%,196049.0%60,1.2,1966,,,70,,,19803789.0,197029.3%80,19904716.7,,198059.4%90,,8019964630.0,19901.8%,:2008-02-25:(1975-),,,,,,;(1967-),,,,,,;(1971-),,,,,,38©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(Internationalenergyoutlook2007)(IEO(2007)),2004113.4Btu,2010136.6Btu,2015152.1Btu2015-2030,2.2%,[1]18-22(),200134%IEO(2007)202551%,30%2004-203072%,6.5%5.7%2005,,()8Btu,2025,44%,200422.7Btu203055.9Btu,3.5%,,,,,[2],2.4%,20015.0Btu203010.5Btu,,(),,16,,20044.3Btu20308.8Btu,2.8%,(),,1990,36%,19908.9420015.72Btu,30%,,19%(Btu),(0.4%)48()20087©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2007),,20252.32,,2001710020254900,1990520020014500,,1990350020012100200147%,2030(),199013.7220017.79,40%,,200123%202515%1998,,,19905.2820013.82,28%IEO(2007),,()200110.6,92%,IEO(2007),,,200151%,,202515.67,52%200114%6,IEO(2007)2001,1500,1000,IEO(2007),,(),94%,202001-20252.7%,,780020040.8Btu,2030,0.9Btu72%,20040.4Btu,86%,,20300.6Btu,,,,,,,2000,,200040,200350,,200415%IEO(2007),2030200558314,:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3]IEO(2007),20035.0420256.93,1.5,20032004,,,,IEO(2007),20032.1020252.76,1.3,9,90%;,75%,1990,,2090,,,1997,,,,2004,,199719/45/,,,,,,90%,,20209040%,1995,45/19951999,230,,,199925/19992000,,1999,,2070,2000,,,2001,,35/25/2003,,2003,,,,2003,,,,60/,20,,,60/(1),20032004,2004,20-25%,50%68()20087©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),12112,4095,33.8%,,,,,,,,,20,198577720039388,20066330,,20031.78,50%,2004,,20052005,,,200511,20063,200420064,2008,95.4%,28%,145,361610451098,(),,[4],,(),,,,,,20062.81,78314,::BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2007,:/©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[5],,,,,2000,300,,2020,,,,,,[6],,,,,,[7],,(),,,,,,,,,,,[8],,,,,,,,,,,[9][10],,,,,,,,;,;,,:[1]InternationalEnergyAgency.InternationalEnergyOutlook[R].2007.[2].2006[J].,2006(1):8-17.88()20087©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3],.[J].,2007(9):79-87.[4].[J].,2006(7):158-159,221.[5],.[J].,2002(12):77-88.[6],.[J].,2007(7):99-103.[7],.[J].,2005(3):18-23.[8].[J].,2006(5):10-12.[9],.[J].,2005(12):39-40.[10],.[J].,2006(11):35-38.AnAnalysisofSupply-DemandandPriceTrendofCoalfromaGlobalPerspectivePANHui-feng1,LVWen-dong2,ZHENGJian-ming3(1.SchoolofBankingandFinance,UIBE,Beijing100029,China;2.SchoolofInsuranceandEconomics,UIBE,Beijing100029,China;3.SchoolofBusiness,UIBE,Beijing100029,China)Abstract:Coalreservesandproductionisrelativelycentralized,theexploitablecoalreserveinsevennorthernhemispherecountriesaccountsforover80%ofthatinthewholeworld.Incontrast,coalconsumptionisrela2tivelydecentralizedandbalanceable,anddemandinsomemajorregionsincreaseswithdifferentfeatures.Thecoalpricemayexperienceaslightfallduetotheexpansionofproductioncapability,butinfluencedbythedevel2opmentofworldeconomy,rigidincreaseoffreightandsustaininghighoilprice,coalvaluewillcontinueascend2ingalittlefrom2009to2015.Intheatmosphereofglobalenergyshortageandthesoaringupofcoalprice,itishightimeforChinatosetdownacomprehensivestrategyforcoalexploitationandexport,atthesametimeopti2mizecoaltradestrategyandintroducecoalfuturestimelytokeepthepricestable.Keywords:coal;production;consumption;price()98314,:

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