微观经济学 行为制度和演化(英文版)

LecturesatFudanUniversityonTheEconomicsofBehavior,Institutions,andEvolutionSamuelBowles,~bowlesUniversityofSiena/SantaFeInstituteLorenzetti,AspectsofGoodGovernment,14thcenturySienaLecturesatFudanUniversityonTheEconomicsofBehavior,Institutions,andEvolution•ThedynamicsofcapitalismandtheemergenceofapostWalrasianparadigmineconomics(Prologue,1)•Economicmanandsocialpreferences:experiments,newpreferencefunctions,andmechanismdesign(3,JPubE)•nstitutionaldynamics:theemergenceofprivatepropety(within-andbetween-groupselectiondynamics)(2,11)•Institutionalpersistenceandinnovation:stochasticevolutionarygametheory(applicationofYoung’)(12)•Theco-evolutionofpreferencesandinstitutions:agent-basedmodelingofgroupselection(13)•Parochialaltruismandwar(andsummingup)(Science07)•IwouldbehappytoamendthisprogrammeRelatedpapersat:~bowles•WalrasianEconomicsinRetrospect.QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,115:4,2000withH.Gintis•“InSearchofHomoeconomicus:BehavioralExperimentsin15SimpleSocieties”AmericanEconomicReview.91,2(2001)(withR.Boyd,C.Camerer,E.Fehr,H.Gintis,etal.).•“PersistentParochialism:theDynamicsofTrustandExclusioninNetworks,”JournalofEconomicBehaviorandOrganization55,2004,withGintis•“Socialpreferencesandpubliceconomics:mechanismdesignwhenprefernecesdependonincentives,”JournalofPublicEconomics,2008,forthcoming(withS-HHwang)•“Policiesdesignedforselfinterestedcitizensmayunderminethe‘moralsentiments’”Science,2008forthcoming.•Groupcompetition,reproductivelevelingandtheevolutionofhumanaltruism.Science,314,2006.•“Theco-evolutionofparochialaltruismandwar,”Science,319(2007)withJung-KyooChoi.•Myemail:[e-mail]theory•Whatshouldmicroeconomictheorybeatheoryof?•Mostofthepeopleintheworldarepoor,soifweknewtheeconomicsofbeingpoorwewouldknowmuchoftheeconomicsthatreallymatters.Schultz,T.W.(1980),“NobelLecture:TheEconomicsofBeingPoor,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy88,4:639-651.•Theprimarytasktoeconomictheory(inmyview)istounderstand(reallyexisting)capitalismanditsevolution(noteconomicsystemsgenerically,notabstractprinciplesofoptimaluseofresources)•IstheWalrasian(neoclassical)paradigmadequatetothistask?Walrasian(neoclassical)economics•Aparadigm(school)ischaracterizedbywhatitteachesitsstudentsandthassumptionsthatarenecessaryandsufficientforitsmainresults.TheWalrasianparadigmischaracterizedby•Completecontracts:enforceableatlowcostbythirdparties•Absence(ornearlyso)ofeconomiesofscale•Economicman:exogenous,selfregardingpreferences•Whatarethe‘bigfacts’aboutcapitalistdynamicsthatthistheoryshouldexplain?LeonWalrasImprovementsinLightingtechnologyfrom25000BCE020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000172517501775180018251850187519001925195019752000YearRatiooflight/unitenergycomparedtollight/unitenergyofcampfiresEarlyLightingTechnology0102030405060708090100-25050-22825-20600-18375-16150-13925-11700-9475-7250-5025-2800-5751650campfire:1AnimalFatLamps:20SesameOilLamps:40ParaffinCandles:80ParaffinCandles:80WhaleOilLamps:160KeroseneLamps:200ElectricCarbonLamp:3200EarlyFluorescentLamp:20000ModernFluorescentLamp:143000FromBowles,EdwardsandRoosevelt,UnderstandingCapitalism:Competition,Command,andChange,OxfordUPress,200401002003004005006007008001264129913341369140414391474150915441579161416491684171917541789182418591894192919641999RealWageIndexCapitalismandWages1264-1999FromBowles,EdwardsandRoosevelt,UnderstandingCapitalism:Competition,Command,andChange,OxfordUPress,2004TwoMillenniaofWorldGDPPerCapita$5,709$444$435$565$667$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,00011533064576107639131066121713701522167518281979YearA.D.1990internationaldollars0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%10001061112211811242130313651426148715471608166917311792185319121973ShareofWorldGDPTheWestAsiaLatinAmerica,AfricaandEasternEurope1998Value:FromBowles,EdwardsandRoosevelt,UnderstandingCapitalism:Competition,Command,andChange,OxfordUPress,2004CapitalismandthePopulationExplosion010002000300040005000600070008000900010000BC-10000BC-9500BC-9000BC-8500BC-8000BC-7500BC-7000BC-6500BC-4550BC-4050BC-3550BC-3050BC-2550BC-2050BC-1550BC-1050BC-550BC-5045095014501950MillionsFirstDevelopmentOfAgricultureAdventofCapitalismTheDemographicTransition0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%1850187018901910193019501970199020102030AverageAnnualGrowthRateSpreadofModernMedicineIndustrialRevolutionProjected2050:9BillionFromBowles,EdwardsandRoosevelt,UnderstandingCapitalism:Competition,Command,andChange,OxfordUPress,2004FromBowles,EdwardsandRoosevelt,UnderstandingCapitalism:Competition,Command,andChange,OxfordUPress,2004Citieswithmorethanamillionpeople1850andpresentLondonandParisBeijing-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.81100010501100115012001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000Deviationfrom1902-1998MeanAverageNorthernHemisphereTemperature26028030032034036038010061067112911881249131013711432149415541615167617371798186019191980PartsPerMillionCo2intheairoverthelastmillenniumAnnualGlobalEmissionsofCo2fromFossilFuelConsumption(BillionsofTons)02004006008001000175518301