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4210 200810上海交通大学学报JOURNALOFSHANGHAIJIAOTONGUNIVERSITYVol.42No.10 Oct.2008 :2008-06-06＊19782020 :1006-2467(2008)10-1589-19＊ :本文阐述了信息技术产业发展的地位、作用和发展趋势,指出以互联网、计算机为代表的信息技术,引发了第三次工业革命.信息技术产业已成为新时期经济增长的重要引擎,有力地促进了可持续发展,深刻地改变着人类生产生活方式.文章探讨了世界信息技术产业发展趋势,认为信息技术孕育着新的重大突破,产业集聚与融合趋势日益明显,知识产权和标准竞争不断加剧,泛在化网络环境正在形成.本文提出,中国应当进一步发挥信息技术产业经济增长“倍增器”、发展方式“转换器”和产业升级“助推器”的作用,坚持自主创新、开放兼容、融合集成、军民互动、市场导向、跨越发展的方针,以信息化带动工业化,以工业化促进信息化,走出一条中国特色信息技术产业发展道路.注重发展微电子、计算机、软件、关键元器件及其材料等核心基础产业,以及宽带移动通信、下一代网络、信息服务等具有国际竞争力的优势产业.完善信息技术产业政策体系,力争到2020年前后,把我国建设成为信息技术产业强国.:信息技术产业;产业发展;发展战略;新时期;中国:F49 :ADevelopmentofITIndustryinChinaintheNewAgeJIANGZe-minAbstract:ThearticleexplainstheroleandfuturetrendofITindustry,andstatesthatinformationtechnol-ogyrepresentedbytheinternetandcomputershasbroughtaboutthethirdindustrialrevolutioninhistory.Animportantimpetusforeconomicgrowthinmoderntimes,theITindustryhasgreatlypromotedsustain-abledevelopmentandisprofoundlychangingmankind'swayoflifeandproduction.Indiscussingthede-velopmenttrendofworldITindustry,thearticlesuggeststhatwithpotentialnewbreakthroughsinITtechnology,thetrendofagglomerationandintegrationofindustrieshasbecomeincreasinglyobvious,com-petitionofintellectualpropertiesandstrandardsisintensifyingandubiquitousnetworksistakingshape.ItpointsoutthatChinashouldbringintobetterplaytheroleofITindustryasan“amplifier”ineconomicgrowth,a“transformer”indevelopmentmodeanda“propeller”inindustrialupgrading.Itisimportanttofollowapolicythatemphasizesindepandentinnovation,market-drivenapproach,openandcompatibletechnologies,integratedandcomprehensiveapplication,andservingbothmilitaryandcivilpurposes,sothataquantumleapofITindustrywillbeachieved.ChinashouldadvanceindustrializationwithITtechn-ologlesandpromotetheITindustryinthecourseofindustrializationinanefforttobuildanITindustrywithChinesecharacteristics.Greatereffortsshouldbemadetodevelopsuchcoresectorsasmicroelectron-ics,computer,software,keycomponentsandmaterials,aswellassectorswithinternationalcompetitive-ness,includingbroadbandmobilecommunication,next-generationnetworkandinformationservices.Con-tinuedimprovementshouldbemadeinthepoliciesguidingthedevelopmentofITindustrywithaviewtomakingChinaacountrywithastrongITindustryby2020.Keywords:informationtechnologyindustry;industrialdevelopment;developmentstrategy;newage;China ,,,.21,,、、、、,、.,,.1 18,;1920,;20,,,,,(1).1 Fig.1 Threeindustrialrevolutions1.1 、、,.,、.,,、、、、,、(1①).1965,Moore[1].1960～1975,.1970～2004,18,24.1971～2006,CPU71,(2①).1 Tab.1 MilestonesITtechnologyupgrades11975～198521985～199531995～2005/μm(1/3)≥1.001.00～0.350.35～0.09/cm10.16～15.2415.24～20.3220.32～30.48(/in)(4～6)(6～8)(8～12)DRAMBit/Mb≥14～1664～256CPU104～105106～107108～109/nm4363652482 CPUFig.2 IntegrationofCPUandcorrespondingpricepertransistor①:“”,2007 ,,,,.,、、、,、,、、.,,.1.2 (General1590上 海 交 通 大 学 学 报42 PurposeTechnologies,GPTs)[2]②.,,,、,,,.、、,(2③).2 2007GDPTab.2 ContributionofITsectortoglobalGDPgrowthin2007 GDP/%2.70.61.70.80.70.7 7.2②:,,,③:DigiWorld(2007:24)④:Cit.ICInsights,ST ,,、、、④.,,.1978,GDP1.5%,20003.4%,20064.3%.207021,GDP1.2090,、、(3[3]).1.3 ,、、.,,,[4].,、,.,70%[5,6].3 OECDFig.3 ContributionofITindustrytoGDPinsomeOECDcountriesandregions ,.7.7%(3⑤).,.,、,、,.、、(EnterpriseResourcePlanning,ERP),、、,.、、、、、,⑤:3 2007Tab.3 Energyconsumptionofindustrialgrowthper10000RMBindifferentindustrialsectorsin2007inChina/TCE1.95947.36734.21553.82343.39672.71131.59681.50670.91860.74250.62740.29950.15021591 10江泽民:新时期我国信息技术产业的发展 ,,.,,.1.4 .,、,.、,.,、,,.,,..、、、、,,.,、,、;,,,,,(4).4 ⑥、⑦、、⑧⑨Tab.4 Statisticsofglobalinternetusers,cellphoneusers,emailaccounts,e-services,ande-commerce 2001200220032004200520062007/4.916.187.178.5410.2110.9613.20/9.6411.6714.1217.5821.6226.5933.00/6.78.09.510.813.015.219.9/1505716240186542192422627——()/108001510017060205102579029370—⑥:InternetWorldStats,InternetTelecom-municationUnion⑦:InternetTelecommunicationUnion⑧:UNCommodityTradeStatisticsDatabase⑨:U.S.CensusBureau1.5 ,.,.,.,,,,、.,、、,、、、,,,,、.,.,.1.6 ,,、、、.,.、、,,、,..、,.,,,,.,.1592上 海 交 通 大 学 学 报42 2 、、.,,,.2090,、、,、、、.,;,;,;,;、、.,.2.1 ,,.、,,.,CPU10,,,(411),(Systemon4 Fig.4 Characteristicdimensionandchipintegration10:(InternationalRoadmapCommittee)《2007》,2007,20225.2,31,2.0511:2007,(RadioFrequencyIdentification,RFID),Chip,SoC),. 、、.,,12.、,IP(InternetPro-tocol)(5).、、,、,.5 Fig.5 Thetrendofinformationnetworktechnologydevelopment1593 10江泽民:新时期我国信息技术产业的发展 ,(Capabilitycomputing)(Capacitycomputing),.CPU13,,.,(Cloudcomputing),.,、、,. 、..、、.、,“”(SoftwareasaService,SaaS).2.2 2090,,,.,,,(614).,、,;,6 1991～2007GDPFig.6 IncreaserateofworldGDPandelectronicproductsmanufacturingfrom1991to200713CPU(Multi-CoreCPU),CPU2,14《》;GDPIMFDataMapper;,;,.,. ,,;,.,,(715),.7 Fig.7 ThetrentofITproductscomsumptionintheworld15WorldInformationTechnologyandServiceAlliancePublicPolicyReport,2007(,2008、2009)2.3 ,,,.,.、、(TQCS),.,,.,.,.,.,、、;,、、;、、.,,,.,1594上 海 交 通 大 学 学 报42 ,,、,.16WIPO2007,PCT172000～2004OECDWorkonPatents;2005～20062.4 、,.,2006,200267.1%(516).,,.(617).,,;,.5 PCTTab.5 PCTpatentapplicationinthefiel