加拿大安大略省煤改气发电技术分析（英）

OPTIONSFORCOAL-FIREDPOWERPLANTSINONTARIOJ.T.ROGERS,PhDProfessor-EmeritusDepartmentofMechanicalandAerospaceEngineeringCarletonUniversityOttawa,OntarioSeptember27,2004TABLEOFCONTENTS1.0INTRODUCTION12.0COAL-FIREDPOWERPLANTSINONTARIO12.1OntarioPowerPlantsandAirPollution12.2EmissionsofAirPollutants22.3PossibleOptionstoReduceAirPollutionfromCoal-FiredPlants33.0IMPROVEMENTOFEMISSIONCONTROLSATCOAL-FIREDPOWERPLANTS44.0REPLACEMENTOFCOAL-FIREDGENERATIONBYNATURALGASGENERATION74.1CurrentCommitmentsandPlans74.2OntarioMinistryofEnergyInitiative84.3ConversionofCoal-FiredPlantstoNaturalGas94.4NaturalGasAvailabilityandCostIssues104.4.1NaturalGasAvailability104.4.2NaturalGasCosts135.0REPLACEMENTOFCOAL-FIREDGENERATIONBYNEWRENEWABLE(ALTERNATIVE)ENERGYSOURCES135.1CurrentSituation135.2InherentWeaknessesofAlternativeEnergySourcesforLarge-ScalePowerGeneration145.3TheEconomicsofWindEnergy165.4WindEnergyandtheEnvironment176.0REPLACEMENTOFCOAL-FIREDGENERATIONBYINCREASEDIMPORTATIONOFELECTRICITYTOONTARIO187.0REPLACEMENTOFCOAL-FIREDGENERATIONBYNUCLEARGENERATION197.1RecentAdditionstoIn-ServiceNuclearCapacity197.2CommittedandPotentialAdditionstoNuclearCapacity197.3LimitationsofNuclearGenerationinReplacingCoal-FiredGeneration207.4FutureNeedforNuclearGenerationinOntario218.0CONCLUSIONS228.1ActualandCommittedAdditionstoOntarioInter-mediateLoadCapacity,2003-2009228.2ImprovementofEmissionControlsatCoal-FiredPowerPlants238.3ReplacementofCoal-FiredGenerationbyNaturalGas-FiredGeneration248.4ReplacementofCoal-FiredGenerationbyRenewable(Alternative)EnergySources248.5ReplacementofCoal-FiredGenerationbyIncreasedImportationofElectricitytoOntario258.6ReplacementofCoal-FiredGenerationbyNuclearGeneration25REFERENCES27OPTIONSFORCOAL-FIREDPOWERPLANTSINONTARIOJ.T.ROGERS,PhDProfessor-EmeritusDept.ofMechanicalandAerospaceEngineeringCarletonUniversityOttawa,Ontario1.0INTRODUCTIONTheOntarioGovernmenthasannounceditsintentiontophaseouttheburningofcoalforelectricityproductioninOntarioby2007becauseoftheresultingairpollution[1].Coal-firedpowerplants,withaninstalledcapacityof7578MW,supplied36.2TWhofelectricityin2003[2],about23%ofOntario’selectricity[1].Therefore,theexpressedintentionoftheGovernmentpresentsamajorchallenge-toavoidanelectricitysupplyshortfallcausedbytakingthecoal-firedpowerplantsoutofservice.Thechallengeincludesnotonlythereplacementofthecoal-firedplantsbuttheaccommodationoftheforecastincreaseinelectricitydemandinOntarioofalmost9%,onamedian-growthbasis,from155.1TWhin2003to168.9TWhin2014andagrowthinpeakdemand,thekeytocapacityneeds,ofabout10%,fromabout24,100MWtoabout26,600MW,overthesameperiod[3].Thepurposeofthispaperistoconsideroptionstomeetthischallenge.Itiswellbeyondthescopeofthispapertoundertakeaneconomicanalysisoftheseoptions,buttheneedtotakeintoaccountcost-benefitassessmentsinevaluatingoptionsisemphasized.2.0COAL-FIREDPOWERPLANTSINONTARIO2.1OntarioPowerPlantsandAirPollutionTherearefivecoal-firedpowerplantsinOntario,asshowninTable1,whichgivesdatafor2003[2],alloperatedbyOntarioPowerGeneration(OPG).TheseplantsaresignificantcontributorstoairpollutioninOntario,asdiscussedbelowinsection2.2.OPGalsooperatesalargefossil-fuelplant,Lennox,whichusesbothoilandnaturalgastogenerateelectricity.AsshowninTable1,thisplanttypicallygeneratesonlyabout7%ofthetotalOPGfossilfuelplantelectricitygeneratedinOntario[2,4],sothatitscontributiontoairpollutionisrelativelyminor,especiallywhenburningnaturalgaswhichisusedforabout70%ofitsgeneration.Electricitygeneratedinnuclear(40%in2003[1])andhydro(22%in2003[1])plantsinOntarioproducesessentiallynoairpollution.AsmallpercentageofelectricityinOntarioisgeneratedbyIndependentPowerProducers(IPP)andbycertainindustriesusingnatural-gasfiredplants,smallhydroplantsandwaste-fired(e.g.,pulpwaste)plants[4],makingaminorcontributiontoairpollutionintheprovince.Theannualcapacityfactors(ACF)for2003forthecoal-firedplantsgiveninTable1indicatethattheseplantsareusedmainlyforintermediate-loadservice1.Nevertheless,someoftheseplants,particularlyNanticokeandLambton,havebeenusedinrecentyearspartlyinbase-loadservicetocompensateforthelossofbase-loadcapacityresultingfromthelay-upforrefurbishmentofthePickering-AandBruce-Anuclearunits[4].WiththereturntoserviceofBruceunits3and4andPickeringunit4in2003andtherecentlyannouncedintentionofOPGtorefurbishandreturntoservicePickeringunit1,asrecommendedbytheOPGReviewCommittee[5],theneedforthecoal-plantstoactasbase-loadplantswillbereduced,thusreducingemissionsofairpollutants.TheLakeviewplant,scheduledforshutdownin2005,nowplaysanimportantrolebecauseofitsproximitytoTorontobysupportingsystemreliabilityandprovidingreactivesupporttomaintainlocalvoltages[4].TheThunderBayandAtikokanplantsprovidelocalgenerationinNorthernOntarioforvoltagesupportandtransmissionsecurity[4].Seereference[6]foradiscussionoftheneedtomaintainvoltagesupportintransmissionsystems.TABLE1ONTARIOPOWERGENERATIONFOSSILFUELPOWERPLANTSDatafor2003[2]ACF:AnnualCapacityFactor,%StationFuelNo.ofUnitsCapacity,MWEnergy,TWhACF,2003DatesInServiceOriginalRetirementDateNanticokeCoal839