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上海交通大学硕士学位论文通信研发项目进度风险识别与分析研究姓名：黄辉申请学位级别：硕士专业：IT项目管理指导教师：陈丽亚;曹卫东20081101-I-IT-II-6-III-ABSTRACTAsthenetworktechnologyturnstosyncreticandconvergence,therearemoreandmorenewequipmentandtechnologyneedtobeusedintheR&Dprojectoftelecommunication.ThescopeandinfluenceoftheR&Dprojectislargerthanbefore.Thenweneedmoretime,alotoforganizationandcooperationworkfortheproject.AndtheperiodsoftheR&Dprojectislonger.Allofthesebringsomeuntraceableanduncertainrisks.SothattheR&Dprojectoftelecommunicationgoeswithdifferentkindsofrisksallalong,includingofschedulerisk,costrisk,technologyrisk,qualityrisk,managementriskandetc.Anyoftheseriskswillcausetheprojectcan’tbefinishedaccordingtotheprimaryschedule.Sohowtomanagetheprojectrisks,especiallytheschedulerisk?It’sundoubtedlytobeanimportanttaskintheprojectmanagementofthetelecommunicationR&Dproject.Asthepreconditionandrequirementofprojectscheduleriskmanagement,wemustenhancetheimportantworktoidentifyandanalysetheschedulerisksatfirst.However,thedomestictelecommunicationenterprisessometimesthinklittleofthescheduleriskmanagementoftheR&Dproject.Especially,theyignoretheidentificationandanalysisofthescheduleriskduringtheprojectstart-upandplanning.Thereby,manyR&Dprojecthavethescheduleriskproblemwhichiscausedbydifferentkindsofaccident.It’simpossibletodelivertheproducttothecustomerinschedule.Anditmaybadlyaffectthesatisfactionofcustomer.Theprojectwillbesomuchasfailedbecauseofthescheduleoverdueproblemintheend.Whywillwehavethiskindofproblem?Ontheonehand,itisbecauseofthedomestictelecommunicationenterpriseslackoftheattentiontotheprojectriskmanagement.Ontheotherhand,itisduetotheenterprisemanagersortheprojectmanagersareunconversantaboutthetheoryandmethodsofprojectscheduleriskmanagement.Especially,theydon’tknowhowtousethescientificwaystoidentifyandanalysetheprojectschedulerisks.Thus,theydon’tbelievetheseways,and-IV-theywillalsonotusetheminthescheduleriskmanagementoftelecommunicationR&Dproject.Therefore,thedissertationisconcerningthethescheduleriskmanagementoftelecommunicationR&Dproject,itisstartedfromintroducingthebasicknowledgeandmajorprocessoftheITprojectriskmanagement.ThedissertationfocusontheresearchofthemethodsinthescheduleriskidentificationandanalysisofthetelecommunicationR&Dproject.Thebrainstorming,checklistandDelphimethodshavebeenusedtogetthelistof6typicalschedulerisksintelecommunicationR&Dproject.Andthedissertationhasusedthecauseandeffectmapandtheriskmapmethodstomakethequalitativeriskanalysisandthequantitativeriskanalysisof6typicalschedulerisksintelecommunicationR&Dproject.Inaddition,itisdisscussedabouttheproblemthattheresourcerestrictionandcollisionbetweendifferentworksofprojectmaybeignoredbythetraditionalanalysismethodsoftheprojectscheduleriskwhenthereistheriskofmanpowerresourcerestriction.Anewscheduleriskanalysismethodtosolveaboveproblem,whichisbasedonthecriticalchainmethod,isbroughtforwardinthisdissertation.AnditisinvestigatedhowtousethisnewanalysismethodtoimprovethescheduleriskmanagementworkofthetelecommunicationR&Dproject.Hopetheinvestigationanddiscussioninthedissertation,whichisaboutthemethodsinthescheduleriskidentificationandanalysisofthetelecommunicationR&Dproject,willbehelpfultoallprojectmanagers.KEYWORDS:schedulerisk,riskidentification,riskanalysis,causeandeffectmap,riskmap,criticalchainmethod-V-AON:ActiveonNodeCCM:CriticalChainMethodCPM:CriticalPathMethodEMV:ExpectedmonetaryvalueanalysisETA:EventTreeAnalysisFTA:FaultTreeAnalysisGERT:GraphicalEvaluationReviewTechniquePHA:PreliminaryHazardAnalysisPMBOK:ProjectManagementBodyofKnowledgePMI:ProjectManagementInstituteRE:RiskExposureTOC:TheoryofConstraintsVERT:VentureEvaluationandReviewTechniqueWBS:WorkBreakdownStructure111.1[123][1][45]IT[6]55%,50%ITIT21.22080BoehmITITBoehmITITIT[7]ITBoehm1991ITTRWTop10Fairley1994BoehmCOCOMOVERTVentureEvaluationandReviewTechniqueFTAFaultTreeAnalysis[8]IT[910]Boehm1981[11]COCOMOITCPMCriticalChainSchedulePERTMcConnell1996[12]ITBrooks1995[13]ITIT3IT¾IT[1]ITIT40IT199543602003ISO900020049COSOSarbanes-Oxley40454044¾IT20802070802080[1415]ITITITIT1)2)WTO3)54)ITIT1.32PMBOKITIT3IT4ITIT5Eli.Goldratt,6IT62IT(ProjectManagementInstitutePMI)1984(ProjectManagementBodyofKnowledgePMBOK)[18]PMBOKIT2.12.1.1[1617]¾¾(Operation)(Project)::¾72.1.2[1819]PMBOK91.:¾¾¾¾2.:¾¾¾¾¾3.:¾()8¾¾¾4.:¾¾¾5.::¾¾¾6.:¾¾¾¾97.:¾¾¾¾¾8.:¾¾¾¾¾¾9.:¾¾¾102.1.3[2021]¾¾¾¾¾2.2IT[1822]2.2.12-12-21.2.112-1Figure2-1TheprocedureofProjectRiskManagement122-2Figure2-2TheFlowChartofProjectRiskManagement3.4.5.6.132.2.22-32-3Figure2-3RiskIdentification1.¾14¾¾¾¾2.¾¾1)2)3)4)5)SWOT15¾¾¾1)2)3)3.1)2)3)4)162.2.342-42-4Figure2-4TheQualitativeAnalysisofProjectRisk1.¾17¾¾¾2.¾[23]¾¾18¾3.¾1)2)3)4)5)6)2.2.419¾¾¾¾¾2-51.¾2-5Figure2-5TheQuantitativeAnalysisofProjectRisk20¾¾¾¾1)2)2.¾1)2-6Figure2-6TheillustrationofProbabilityDistribution2)212-63)¾[24]1)2)EMV3)4)[25]3.¾1)222)3)4)2.3PMBOKITITIT233IT[26]IT3.13.1.1[2728]1.2.3.1.2.3.243.1.2[2227]IT1.193950702.253.SllELLPierrWark1972704.[29]Delphi20501)2)263)5.FALTTREES[7]1)2)3)3.23.2.1[123031]IT271.2.3.4.3.2.228[22],3-13-1Table3-1TheVariousRisk