可持续发展的煤炭利用

可持续发展的煤炭利用TransformingCoalforSustainability国合会能源专题组TFESTofCCICED中国目前的能源系统是不可持续的TheenergysysteminChinaisunsustainable将来面临的风险：过度依赖石油进口环境状况迅速恶化温室气体减排代价高昂ChinawillbecomeoverlydependentonoilimportsasaresultofrapidlygrowingdemandforliquidfuelsSevereenvironmentdamagescausedbydirectcombustionofcoalChinawillnotbeabletomakeitscontributiontomitigatinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsunderlowcost.中国一次能源将来仍将以煤炭为主ThecoalisthemainpartofprimaryenergyinChinaTotalPrimaryEnergySupply020406080100120140160199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050BASECASEUpdatedmodelUpdatedAdvTechwithAllCapsandLowNuclearExajoulesEFFICIENCYRENEWABLESNUCLEARCBMNGASOILCOALGasificationCOALCombustionBaseTechnologiesAdvancedTechnologiesSO2,30%Oil&Gas,66GtCCaps以合理成本降低上述风险的方案Tomitigatetheserisksatreasonablecost中国能源模型分析表明，面对这些风险，传统的技术方案无法解决问题。通过采用煤炭现代化利用的战略能够以合理的代价降低上述风险Thebusinessasusualmodecan’tsolvetheabovementionedproblem.Throughmodernizationofcoalutilization,theabovementionedproblemscouldbesolvedwithreasonablecost.煤炭现代化利用的含义MeaningofModernizationofcoalutilization煤炭的现代化是指通过煤气化技术来生产热能，电力，运输用清洁燃料，炊事用燃料等，即多联产能源系统。Modernizationofcoalutilization——largescalegasificationofcoalandcoproductionofliquidfuels(methanol,dimethylether,etc),othervalue-addedchemicalsandelectricpower.Ifnecessary,syngasandheatforresidentialusecouldalsobeprovided.Itisso-calledpolygenerationsystem.采用先进技术方案的效果TheeffectofAdvancedTechnologiesScenario成本与传统技术方案相当煤炭开采量与传统技术方案相当SO2的排放从1995年的2370万吨下降到2020年的1620万吨、2050年的880万吨。石油与天然气进口量限制在总消耗量的30%左右。累计CO2排放量少于660亿吨碳ProvidesthesameenergyservicesataboutthesamecostastheBasetechnologiesstrategySO2emissionsarereducedfrom23.7Mtin1995to16.2Mtin2020and8.8Mtin2050Importsofoilandnaturalgasarelimitedto30%ofconsumptionofoilandgasoverthelong-term66GtCcaps实施煤炭现代化利用战略刻不容缓UrgentActionbyChina’sLeadershipisRequired要增加到2020年的小康水平，中国的煤电装机增量约为5亿kW若不早做安排，新建煤电会全部采用直接燃烧的方式，左右今后30年煤炭利用格局需要国家总体调控下，在总量中安排部分以煤气化为核心的多联产项目。Formodernization,rapidlygrowthofelectricityisneeded.largeinvestmentsareplannedforelectricityoverthenextdecadethatwilllockinthemodeofcoaluseofChinathrough2020andformanydecadesthereafter.Itisextremelynecessarytohavestrategiesprogrammedtoarrangethepolygenerationplantsjustfromnow实施煤炭现代化战略刻不容缓(一)UrgentActionbyChina’sLeadershipisRequired(1)今后20年燃煤发电装机容量预测ProjectionforCoalPowerPlantCapacity010020030040050060020002005201020152020GigawattsPost-2000NewCapacityPre-2000Capacity实施煤炭现代化战略刻不容缓(二)UrgentActionbyChina’sLeadershipisRequired(2)如果延误过渡到以气化为基础的多联产技术的时机，将会：显著增加将来中国治理空气污染的成本；难以控制未来石油进口大大增加减排温室气体的成本。Delayingthestartofthetransitiontocoalgasification-basedpolygenerationtechnologywouldsignificantlyincrease:thecoststoChinaofairpollutiondamages,thecostsofoilimports,thecostsofreducingGHGemissions.增加空气污染的治理成本Thecostsofairpollutiondamages我国环境已经非常恶劣酸雨面积占国土面积的40％大气污染主要是燃煤排放城市污染主要是汽车尾气按现有技术，能耗总量持续增长，将对环境与公众健康造成非常大的损害（损失占GDP13%）TheenvironmentofChinaisseriouslybadThemajorityofairpollutioncomesfromdirectcombustionofcoalThemaincauseofurbanareaairpollutionistheemissionofcarSevereadditionalpublichealthandenvironmentaldamageswilloccurinChinawithverylargeeconomicconsequences(projectedtogrowfromover7%ofGDPto13%ofGDPin2020)我国液体燃料短缺现象日趋严重Shortageofliquidfuelandenergysecurity预计到2020年，进口量将超过总消费量的50%以上，这将严重影响我国的能源安全。加强石油勘探开采，实施走出去战略，多渠道进口石油是主要措施从我国比较丰富的煤炭转化为车用液体燃料是一个重要的战略Theimportoilpercentagebytheyearof2020willbemorethan50%.theenhancementofexploitationofthepetroleumisthemainmethod.theproductionofliquidfuelfromtherelativeabundantcoalreverseinchinaisstrategicallyimportant.我国煤炭转化为车用液体燃料战略Productionofliquidfuelfromcoal直接液化基本投资大，所得油品质量低间接液化能量转换率低最重要的是在经济上无法和石油炼制竞争煤气化多联产系统是较好选择thequalityoffuelisbad(directliquefaction)Theenergytransformationratioislow(indirectliquefaction),economicallyunfeasibleThepoly-generationisagoodoption增加温室气体减排成本IncreasethecostsofreducingGHGemissions我国在1995年所排放的CO2总量达30亿吨，占世界总排放量的13.6%我国的CO2排放迟早会受到限制常规技术的燃煤电站减排CO2非常困难TheCO2emissionofChinain1995is13.6%oftotalemissionintheworldTheCO2emissionwillbelimitedsoonerorlater.mitigatinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsinconventionalcoalpowerplantwillleadtohighcost.CO2排放量EmissionofCO2美国USA日本Japan德国German英国UK法国France意大利Italy总量(亿吨/年)Totalamount(108tpd)53.35.210.89.66.27.4人均(吨/年)Percapita(tpd)209.1710.839.646.237.4煤气化多联产的技术优势（一）Theadvantageofmodernizationcoalutilization（1）污染排放水平接近天然气联合循环，满足最严格的环保要求可以生产清洁液体燃料，缓解石油进口压力和城市污染与IGCC相比，经济上具有竞争力，发电成本接近带脱硫脱销装置的燃煤蒸汽电站合成气制造二甲醚：性质类似LPG，解决农村分散用能Thepollutionofcoalpowergenerationwillbelowerdowntothelevelofnatural-gasfiredcombinedcyclepowerplants.Polygenerationcanprovidecleantransportationfuels,whicharemuchbetterthanpetroleumderivedgasolineanddieselfuelsfromthemthepointofviewemission,thus,toreducethepetroleumimportsignificantly.Notlike“pure”integratedgasificationcombinedcycle(IGCC),polygenerationbasedoncoalgasificationcanmakethecleanpowergenerationeconomicallycompetitive.ProduceDME(similarasLPG),solvethedistributionenergyserveprobleminruralarea.煤气化多联产的技术优势（二）Theadvantageofmodernizationcoalutiliz