国民经济核算002

://RESEARCH.CSC.COM.CN3105„052033.44.8%10%„05„6132+29.7%„244-15.4%„„4750%1/20„„„„„3G:„:„:“”„“”„„0605,0706++„„„„+„--:„:„3G—0607„NGN—0506„WIMAX—3G„IPV6—„IPTV—058„VoIP--4„„„0605,0706„052033.44.8%„0610%„:0571506833+16.5%„:05220()06278„GSM:76124„CDMA:20-3027.5„„NGN:0524.5(+63%)06„:—06-07„063G„„„TD-SCDMA„„„„*07*65913*3G10012080CDMA2000EV-DO260310200TD-SCDMA390470300:WCDMA75090058008E07E06E3G„40%“”90„3G+06-10„TDWCDMAWCDMA40-50%„3G:30%39.8%8%-10%4%-6%24%-26%20%CDMA2000EV-DO68%68%TD-SCDMA21%-30%25%-35%4%-6%WCDMA3G2G3G2G8„06-073G„3G06-07-(08)„GG„„()„TCL—“”05060705+06+073G11.9317.1721.4926.31P/E2.321.611.291.05EPS43.91%25.15%22.42%43.28%222415461235100932.39%21.89%2.65%41.54%376002840023300226982007E2006E2005E2004A—„„3G16-20%20%?„TD-SCDMA:30-35%„WCMDA:25-35%40-50%„6-10%10-18%?„CDMA2000:22-25%„NGN1/3„IPTV50%„„04„PE17-20„„:,„053„„3G3G„,10-20%„:PE20-25„“”1240„:„:—„05-0720%08-09„PE159„+„89.112.515.117.8P/E0.760.550.460.39EPS2008E2007E2006E2005G—()„0506„CDMA,„10%-15%„PE18.83.10„,3G0719.7618.7519.9123.25P/E0.1370.1450.1360.117EPS-5.09%6.15%16.77%-21.48%29.0730.6328.8624.712,007E2,006E2,005E2,004A—“”„„„-„05/06„EPS05-070.080.270.39„PE38„80%“”“”„„++—„04„05()„06„TTE05200006„TTE0506„0506„0607„102.5,1.87„+++„://RESEARCH.CSC.COM.CN2205:TMT2005.07.0883.5%2004.12.16175.9%2004.12.082003.0186.8%/388.2%