基于危险源理论煤矿瓦斯爆炸和涌出风险预警系统及其应用研究

重庆大学硕士学位论文基于危险源理论煤矿瓦斯爆炸和涌出风险预警系统及其应用研究姓名：王艳平申请学位级别：硕士专业：安全技术及工程指导教师：曹树刚20060301I“”35MATLABBPIIIABSTRACTChinaisabigproducerofcoalsandtheannualproductionstandsfirstontheworldlist,However,thesafesituationofthecoalmineisverygrim,especiallythegasexplosionaccidentshavebeenastheNO.1killerofcoalminesafetyinchina,whichourgovernmenthasahighregardto.Inordertocontrolgasexplosionefficiently,throughsummarizinglargenumbersofdomesticandoverseasrelevantdataandstandardstipulations,andcombiningthespecificsituationofthemine,thisarticlehasputforwardtheriskforewarningsystemofgasexplosionandgasdischargeinthecoalminebasedonhazardtheoryfromanalyzingradicalfactorsofgasexplosionhazardrisk.Strengtheningforewarningadministrationofhazardtorealizedynamicriskevaluationduringproduceprocess,sothatcanmakestrategicchangesofminesafemanagementfromlatter-analysistopreventionbeforehand,andcanreduceaccidentsprobability.Firstly,analyzingpresentresearchesonsomesubjectsreferringtothisstudyandcombiningthehazardtheoryandcoalminegasexplosionaccidents,thepaperhasanalyzedthebasicconditionofgasexplosionandsetforththemodelofcoalminegasexplosionaccidentfrom3aspects,namely,inherenthazard,temptablehazardandhumanfactor,inthespiritofthreeclassofhazard.Secondly,researchingonriskforewarningsystemofgasexplosionincoalmine,theauthorhasdesignedtotalflowforriskforewarningsystemworkandflowforriskforewarningworkofgasexplosionincoalmineofasubsidiarycompanyinminingindustry.Applyingfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationtechniqueaswellascombiningthespecificsituationinthesouthmineofzhongliangshan,theauthorhasstructuredtheriskevaluationindexsystemofgasexplosionincoalmineandestablishedcorrespondingflowchartoffuzzycomprehensiveevaluationtechniquetoidentifythedangerclassesofaccidents.Connectingwiththesouthmineofzhongliangsha’s5coalminingworkingfaces,thepaperevaluatesriskforewarningofthehazardandjudgestherationalityandsecurity.Finally,combiningtheformidablenon-lineardynamicprocessingquestionabilityofneuralnetworkandMATLAB’ssuperiorityinnumericalcomputation,theauthorhasdesignedthepredictingmodelbasedontimeseriesofinherenthazardofcoalminegasexplosionforgasdischargeamountandperformedwithexamplestoconfirm.Theresultsshowhighaccuracyofthemodel.AnditcanforewarnwhenthegasdensityIVreachesdangerlimit,Underthecircumstance,fieldoperatorscantakecountermeasuresaheadoftimetopreventaccidents,whichcanprovidenewideastothefurtherdevelopmentofgasdischargeforewarningtechnique.Keywords:Hazard,GasExplosion,ForwarningSystem,GasDischarge,BPNeuralNetwork1111.120009842t20070199820201.9%2.6%2.2%3.8%1.12003508000200316.633.2%64343.821001012200455750019.5635.51%60273.08200410270.0320032004200380%1090%2003344520471.2200475%[2]()505519.5616.6701020304050602003200480007500643460270200040006000800010000200320041.1Fig1.1Saftystatusofcoalindustry21.21.2.11990200042199820012001231860042001.2.23114634166915510189421921682003200320022002391029301.2Fig1.2Theseriousgasaccidentcomposingofstatecoalmine133[3-4]1818671869187120702.5%3.5%6%19731979W.J.G.P.1981A.19831990()60[5]4PDCA(FTA)(ETA)(CPHA)(SCL)(FMEA)(OS)1.2.3120302040Zuckerman1961WatsonFAT[6-7]1964DOWF&EI19941967F.R.FarmerQRA1974ICIMONDICI/MOND1975J.RusmusenPRATNOHSEK.J.15C.F.LECR.V.()A.R.21981198810020901995199419951997199812199820009()((2000)64)586198219861994()1.2.4119[8](AlffedFourille)188830305050195017301960(Compositeindex)1990JagdishN198419873198791987419911993()19812208020802090208020901993198719998[9-10]1.31.3.160%70%191.3.2[11-13]1.41.31210345BPBP1.3Fig1.3Studycontentandframework21122.12.1.12070(ACMH)ACMH(HSE)ACMH198220902.1.2(Hazard)(Majorhazard)[14]:[15][16]122.2[17]2.2.1[18](1)()(2)FTAETA2132.2.2[19][20-21]()()14[22-23]2.32.3.1123[24]2.12.1Fig2.1Concentrationofgasincoalminingworkingfacecontrol2152.3.25()()O212%()()()52.2[25]121341—2O212%342.2Fig2.2Themodelofgasexplosionaccident162.3BECE12%2.3BCE2.3BCE2.32.3-[26-27]Fig2.3Relationbetweenexplosionlimitandoxygenthicknessofthemixedgas217322.1202.2102.1Table2.1Possiblefactorsofgasaccumulation1172183194205216227238249251026112712281329143015311632181234562[28-33]2.42.2Table2.2Thefactorsofburningandblasting11121231341451561671781891910202192.4125%+A7X18X19X20X21X22A25%16%X6A1++A4+A8X5X3X4X2X1X7+X8X9X10X11A9A5+A6X17X13X14X15X16650X12+A3A212.4Fig2.4FTAanalysisofgasexplosion2016%12%6500.28MJ332133.13.1.13.1.21:2223.2[34-37]3.13.1Fig3.1Thecontentsofgasexplosionincoalmineriskforewarningsystem3233.2.1123()43.2.224123433.33.3.13253.3.23.3.33.43.4.13.4.2[38]1)(tfy=26yt2),,(21nxxxfyΛ=ynxxx,,,21Λy343.4.33.4.4[39-42]1X[]baxx,[]acxx,[]dbxx,[]cexx,[]fdxx,3.2baxxx≤≤xdbaceyf3.2Fig3.2Thechartofindexforewarningvaluelimit327≤≤dbacxxxxxx≤≤fdcexxxxxxfexxxx2xx)(xP≥≤,)(;,)(;,0ccabPxPPxPPPxP34283.4.53.53.5.1[43-47]329303.33.43.43.43.3Fig3.3Three-dimensionalfunctionframeworkofmanagement3.4Fig3.4Enterpriseorganizationpattern3313.5.2[48-49]3.53.5Fig3.5Theworkingtotalflowchartofgasexplosionriskforewarningsystemincoalmine323.5.33.6[50-51]………………………….3.6Fig3.6Theworkingflowchartofgasexplosionriskforewarningsystemincoalmi