retirement age(关于退休年龄的争议)

Retirementage陈颖2012.11.19Whytoextendtheretirementage•1.LifeexpectancyisextendedPopulationstructurehaschangedAgingpopulationsiscoming•2.ShortageofpensionsLifeexpectancy---anticipatedagePopulationstructureandagingpopulation•In1999,thepopulationabovesixtyyearsoldis130million,10.2%ofthetotalpopulation.•By2010,thenumberis178million,13.26%ofthetotalpopulation.•Whenitcomesto2050,wewillhave480millionpeopleagingsixtyandabove,1/3ofthetotalpopulationandbecomingoneofthecountrieswhichhavethehighestagingpopulation.•By2050,thelaborforcebetween15and59willdeclineto710million,230millionlesserthan2010.Populationstructureandagingpopulation•Wewillhave1.4billionpeoplein2040.ThenumberofPeopleoversixtyis411million.•Peoplebetween20and60willdeclinefrom817millionto696million.Peoplebetween20and40willdeclinefrom436millionto302million,fallingbymorethan30%•By2050,thegenerationafter80’sand90’swillbe“youngeroldmen”,therewillbe100million’s“elderoldmen”over80yearsold.Aboutthepensions•Threeparameters:•Replacementrate(替代率）：thepensionyougetaftertheretirementaccountsforhowmuchofyoursalaryonthejob•Paymentrate（缴费率）:howmuchmoneyyoushouldpayforyourpensioninsuranceaccordingtoyoursalary•RetirementageAboutthepensions•Replacementrate:below50%(average),above80%(utility)•Paymentrate:28%•Retirementage:60(men)50(women)Constitutionofpensioninsurance•Individualaccountorpersonalaccount(emptyaccountanddevalue)•SocialpoolingaccountShortageofpension(Individualaccount)•Bytheendof2011,thebookvalueoftheindividualaccountis2.5trillion,buttheamountoftheemptyaccountis2.23trillion.•From2000to2010,thepensioninsurancefundisputintothebankwithaninterestrateof1.8%,whichmeansthepensionhasbeendevaluedbymorethan0.6trillionWhatdoesitmeantoextendtheretirementage?•Extendingtheretirementageforoneyearmeans20billion’spension.•However,lastyear,thecountryhadfinanced200billionforthepension.•Thatistosay,extendingtheretirementagecanjustrelaxthepressureoftheshortageofpensiontoasmallextent.Measurestoextendtheretirementage•Makingpeopleabove16yearsold,not18yearsoldtopaythepensionisanalternativewayofextendingtheretirementage.•Weshouldtakeaslowwaytocarryouttheplan,whichmeansthatweextendonlyoneortwomonthsinoneyear.•Weshouldthinkabouttheflexiblepensionsystem.(notsuitablefortheadministrativeinstitutions)Problemstoextendtheretirementage•Thedoubletrackpensionsystem•Industry•Worktype(profession)•JobopportunityforyoungpeopleMyadviceLookbeforeyouleap!Thanks!!!