民用航空器使用困难综合评价与预测预警模型研究

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文民用航空器使用困难综合评价与预测预警模型研究姓名：阮宏泽申请学位级别：硕士专业：载运工具运用工程指导教师：孙有朝20071201IAHPGM(1,1)0507239IIAbstractResearchoncomprehensiveevaluationandpredictionpre-warningmodelofcivilaircraftServiceDifficultyisanimportanttopicinthefieldofcivilaviationmaintenanceandsecurity.TheexistingServiceDifficultyReport(SDR)systemisaboutcollection,analysisandevaluationoftheexistingdataofServiceDifficulty,butit’swithouttheabilityofforecastingandearlywarningonfuturestatusofServiceDifficulty.Therefore,it’surgencyneedtodevelopapredictionandearlywarningsystemaboutcivilianaircraftServicedifficultyforcivilianaircraftfaulttrendanalysis,assessment,forecasting,pre-warningandinformation-sharing,soastoenhancethesafeoperationofcivilianaircraft.Firstly,throughtheanalysisoftherelevantprinciplesofsafetyengineering,combinedthesetprinciplesandtheconstructionprocessofsafetyevaluationindexsystem,thesafetyevaluationindexsystembasedonhierarchicalstructureisestablished.Second,onthebasisoftheresearchandanalysisofqualitativeandquantitativeevaluationmethodofsystemsecurity,fuzzycomprehensivehierarchicalanalysisandevaluationmethodisproposed.Onthisbasis,themulti-levelfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationalgorithmandmodelisproposed.Andthecomprehensiveevaluationalgorithmandmodelarevalidatedwithacasestudy.Then,byanalyzingofthepredictionandpreventionofaccidents,combinedthepropertyofrandomness,uncertaintyandpovertyinformationaboutcivilaircraftmechanicalfaultoccurred,greyforecastingmethodsisproposed,andthegreypredictionGM(1,1)modelisestablished.Andthepredictionmodelisexplainedindetailwithacasestudy.Bystudyingtherisksearlywarningtheoryandearlywarningmechanism,civilaircraftservicedifficultyearlywarningmethodsandindexsystemisproposed,andtheearlywarningstructureandearlywarningmodelisestablished.Finally,thepredictionandearlywarningsystemofcivilaircraftServiceDifficultyisdevelopedsuccessfully.Thesystemcontainsmanymodules,suchastheServiceDifficultyearlywarningmodule,ServiceDifficultyforecastingmodule,thereportfaultrateforecastingmodule.Keywords:Civilaviation,ServiceDifficultyReports,Safetyevaluation,Greyprediction,Earlywarningmodel0507239VI1.1.............................................52.1...........................................72.2...........................................83.1......................................203.2................223.3..........................264.1GM(1,1)...................................354.2............................414.3........................424.4............................445.1..........................535.2............................535.3........................565.4SDR....................................575.5..............585.6SDR................................585.7................595.820072SDR.............................602.1..................102.2..................................162.3RI...................................173.1..........................253.2................................254.1........................................364.220061-20074B737.......374.3........................................474.4....................48,()11.1[5]201980~20003.202/1.65/1.90.74/4.3101990~20002.183/1.45/1.50.557/3.920033“”2010(ServiceDifficultyReportsSDR)SDR121707708709135439441443SDRB/SJavaWeblogicOracleCognosOLAP05072392SDRSDR1.2FAAEASASDRFAA80(FTA)(ETA)WichitaAirlineQualityRating(AQR)20503601969MIL-STD-882(A)202020607020801918882030506019891.3050723941.3.1.(1)(SDR)(2)AHP(3)(4)GM(1,1)(5)J2EEJava1.3.2.1.151.1050723962.1Safety[5-6]Risk(SafetyEvaluation)2.2[6]2.2.1[5-6]72.2.2(1)(2)(3)(4)2.2.3(1)2.12.105072398(2)2.22.22.2.42.39(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)2.4(1)SDRSDRSDR(2)SDR(3)050723910CFIT(4)2.52.5.1(SDR)SDR1SDR/ATA22.5.22.12.12.111/VHFHFMCPTCASATCAPU//050723912/NP/EGT()132.612.6.12.6.1.1[5][10]AnalyticHierarchyProcess,AHP050723914----2.6.1.21-999ATAATAATA99/2.6.2(1)1)()2)()15{}nVVVV,,,21={}imiiiVVVV,,,21=3)()(2)1-9nnCCC,,21OiCjCijaiCjCOmnijaA×=)(0ijaijjiaa1=2.1AiCjC1-9ija9,,2,191,,21,11-92.22.21iCjC3iCjCiCjC5iCjCiCjC7iCjCiCjC9iCjCiCjC2468iCjC11/2…1/9iCjC{}nVVVV,,,21=nnijnnnnnVVVVVVVVVVA×===)(1112122111221#jiijVV1=2.2ikViVjV11{}imiiiVVVV,,,21=iV050723916immimimimiimiimiiifffffffvvvB×===1112122111221#),,2,1(ni=)1(ijliljff=2.3iljfiVilvijv(3)----ViVωλωmax=AAA∑==′niijijijaa1ω2.4ijω′iωiω()Τ=nwωωω,,,21∑==niiiwAwn1max)(1λ2.5(4)----()BmmBBB,,,21mbbb,,,21nnCCC,,,21jBnjjjccc,,,21C∑==mjijjicbC12.6(5)AACI1max−−=nnCIλ2.7nRIRI2.32.3RIn123456789101117RI000.580.901.121.241.321.411.451.491.51CRRICICR=2.81.0CR2.7(SDR)0507239183.13.23.2.1(1)(2)ICI3.2.219ICI3.2.3(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)3.10507239203.13.2.4,UV(m)WRB(AHP)213.2.51-93.33.3.1:12AHP1)2)1-93)2)4)2)345605072392213.23.23.3.2(1)U23{}nuuu,,,21Λ=U3.1()niui,,2,1Λ=)(jiuuji≠≠φΙiu{}ikiiiuuuu,,,21Λ=),,2,1(miΛ=(2)AHP{}nuuu,,,21Λ=U{}ikiiiuuuu,,,21Λ=1-91.0CRU{}nΛ=W3.2iu{}ikiiiwωωω,,,21Λ=iw11=∑=niiw0≥iaiu(3)V{}mvvvV,,,21Λ=3.3),,2,1(miviΛ=5=m{}(4)UiiuVjjvijriiu{}imiirrr,,,21Λ=iR050723924iuk=kmkkmmrrrrrrrrrΛΛΛΛΛΛΛ212222111211iR3.4ijriku1kv1v2kv2vkmvmvki,,2,1Λ=∑==mjijij