Lesson3ShipsintheDesertShipsintheDesertALGoreIwasstandinginthesunonthehotsteeldeckofafishingshipcapableofprocessingafifty-toncatchonagoodday.Butitwasn'tagoodday.WewereanchoredinwhatusedtobethemostproductivefishingsiteinallofcentralAsia,butasIlookedoutoverthebow,theprospectsofagoodcatchlookedbleak.Wherethereshouldhavebeengentleblue-greenwaveslappingagainstthesideoftheship,therewasnothingbuthotdrysand–asfarasIcouldseeinalldirections.Theothershipsofthefleetwerealsoatrestinthesand,scatteredinthedunesthatstretchedallthewaytothehorizon.TenyearsagotheAralwasthefourth-largestinlandseaintheworld,comparabletothelargestofNorthAmerica'sGreatLakes.Nowitisdisappearingbecausethewaterthatusedtofeedithasbeendivertedinanill-consideredirrigationschemetogrowcottonIntheusert.Thenewshorelinewasalmostfortykilometersacrossthesandfromwherethefishingfleetwasnowpermanentlydocked.Meanwhile,inthenearbytownofMuynakthepeoplewerestillcanningfish–broughtnotfromtheAralSeabutshippedbyrailthroughSiberiafromthePacificOcean,morethanathousandmilesaway.Mysearchfortheunderlyingcausesoftheenvironmentalcrisishasledmetotravelaroundtheworldtoexamineandstudymanyoftheseimagesofdestruction.Attheverybottomoftheearth,highintheTrans-AntarcticMountains,withthesunglaringatmidnightthroughaholeinthesky,Istoodintheunbelievablecoldnessandtalkedwithascientistinthelatetallof1988aboutthetunnelhewasdiggingthroughtime.Slippinghisparkabacktorevealabadlyburnedfacethatwascrackedandpeeling,hepointedtotheannuallayersoficeinacoresampledugfromtheglacieronwhichwewerestanding.Hemovedhisfingerbackintimetotheiceoftwodecadesago.Here'swheretheU.SCongresspassedtheCleanAirAct,”hesaid.Atthebottomoftheworld,twocontinentsawayfromWashington,D.C.,evenasmallreductioninonecountry'semissionshadchangedtheamountofpollutionfoundintheremotestendleastaccessibleplaceonearth.Butthemostsignificantchangethusfarintheearth'satmosphereistheonethatbeganwiththeindustrialrevolutionearlyinthelastcenturyandhaspickedupspeedeversince.Industrymeantcoal,andlateroil,andwebegantoburnlotsofit–bringingrisinglevelsofcarbondioxide(CO2),withitsabilitytotrapmoreheatintheatmosphereandslowlywarmtheearth.FewerthanahundredyardsfromtheSouthPole,upwindfromtheicerunwaywheretheskiplanelandsandkeepsitsenginesrunningtopreventthemetalpartsfromfreeze-lockingtogether,scientistsmonitortheairseveraltimeseverydaytochartthecourseofthatinexorablechange.Duringmyvisit,Iwatchedonescientistdrawtheresultsofthatday'smeasurements,pushingtheendofasteeplinestillhigheronthegraph.Hetoldmehoweasyitis–thereattheendoftheearth–toseethatthisenormouschangeintheglobalatmosphereisstillpickingupspeed.TwoandahalfyearslaterIsleptunderthemidnightsunattheotherendofourplanet,inasmalltentpitchedonatwelve-toot-thickslaboficefloatinginthefrigidArcticOcean.Afteraheartybreakfast,mycompanionsandItraveledbysnowmobilesafewmilesfarthernorthtoarendezvouspointwheretheicewasthinner–onlythreeandahalffeetthick–andanuclearsubmarinehoveredinthewaterbelow.Afteritcrashedthroughtheice,tookonitsnewpassengers,andresubmerged,Italkedwithscientistswhoweretryingtomeasuremoreaccuratelythethicknessofthepolaricecap,whichmanybelieveisthinningasare-suitofglobalwarming.IhadjustnegotiatedanagreementbetweenicescientistsandtheU.S.Navytosecurethere-leaseofpreviouslytopsecretdatafromsubmarinesonartracks,datathatcouldhelpthemlearnwhatishappeningtothenorthpolarcap.Now,Iwantedtoseethepoleit-self,andsomeeighthoursafterwemetthesubmarine,wewerecrashingthroughthatice,surfacing,andthenIwasstandinginaneerilybeautifulsnowcape,windsweptandsparklingwhite,withthehorizondefinedbylittlehummocks,orpressureridgesoficethatarepushedupliketinymountainrangeswhenseparatesheetscollide.Butheretoo,CD,levelsarerisingjustasrapidly,andultimatelytemperaturewillrisewiththem–indeed,globalwarmingisexpectedtopushtemperaturesupmuchmorerapidlyinthepolarregionsthanintherestoftheworld.Asthepolarairwarms,theiceherewillthin;andsincethepolarcapplayssuchacrucialroleintheworld'sweathersystem,theconsequencesofathinningcapcouldbedisastrous.Consideringsuchscenariosisnotapurelyspeculativeexercise.SixmonthsafterIreturnedfromtheNorthPole,ateamofscientistsreporteddramaticchangesinthepatternoficedistributionintheArctic,andasecondteamreportedastillcontroversialclaim(whichavarietyofdatanowsuggest)that,overall,thenorthpolarcaphasthinnedby2percentinjustthelastdecade.Moreover,scientistsestablishedseveralyearsagothatinmanylandareasnorthoftheArcticCircle,thespringsnowmeltnowcomesearliereveryyear,anddeepinthetundrabelow,thetemperatureeoftheearthissteadilyrising.Asithappens,someofthemostdisturbingimagesofenvironmentaldestructioncanbefoundexactlyhalfwaybetweentheNorthandSouthpoles–preciselyattheequatorinBrazil–wherebillowingcloudsofsmokeregularlyblack-entheskyabovetheimmensebutnowthreatenedAmazonrainforest.Acrebyacre,therainforestisbeingburnedtocreatefastpastureforfast-foodbeef;asIlearnedwhenIwentthereinearly1989,thefiresaresetearlierandearlierinthedryseasonnow,withmorethanoneTennessee'sworthofrainforestbeingslashedandburnedeachyear.Accordingtoourguide,th