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-I-哈尔滨理工大学毕业设计题目：利率波动对寿险需求的影响分析院、系：经济学院金融系姓名：寇明龙指导教师：刘涛系主任：王小颖2012年6月-II-利率波动对寿险需求的影响分析摘要利率作为金融的重要杠杆，它的波动必然引起各金融工具预期收益率的变化，人寿保险需求也必然深受利率波动的影响。由于大多数人寿保险都具有储蓄或投资的特性，因此银行存款及其它金融产品对人寿保险具有很强的替代效应。随着利率的市场化，利率波动对寿险需求的影响更加显著。本文从分析利率与寿险需求的关系出发，结合我国实际的利率风险现状，利率风险困境及产生根源，研究了利率波动对寿险需求的替代效应与价格效应，和利率波动对储蓄型寿险产品和保障型寿险产品需求的影响，结合我国现状并借鉴日本寿险业的经验，提出改进的措施，从不同的方面提出对策，如产品创新方面、资金运用方面、利率管制方面，分别解决产生于不同方面的问题，并提出相关对策及建议。关键词利率波动；寿险需求；替代效应；价格效应-III-TheimpactoffluctuationsininterestratesonlifeinsuranceneedsanalysisAbstractTheinterestrateasthefinanciallever,itwillinevitablycausethefluctuationoffinancialinstrumentsisexpectedtoyieldchanges,thedemandoflifeinsuranceisboundbytheimpactofinterestratevolatility.，Becausethemajorityoflifeinsurancehavesavingsorinvestmentproperties,therefore,bankdepositsandotherfinancialproductstothelifeinsurancehasverystrongsubstitutioneffect.Withthemarketizationofinterestrate,thefluctuationofinterestrateonlifeinsurancedemandsmoresignificanteffect.Basedontheanalysisofinterestrateandlifeinsurancedemandrelations,combinedwiththeactualsituationinChina,studiedthefluctuationofinterestrateonlifeinsurancedemandsubstitutioneffectandpriceeffect,andthefluctuationofinterestrateonsavingstypelifeinsuranceproductsandsafeguardlifeinsuranceproductdemand,differentinfluencetotraditionallifeinsuranceproductsandnewtypeoflifeinsuranceproductdemandandtheeffectonthedifferenttheinvestment-featuredlifeinsuranceeffect,andthecombinationoftheJapaneselifeinsuranceindustrydevelopmenttopromotedecline,studiedtheresponseofinterestrateonlifeinsurancedemandsinChinaadverseeffectscountermeasures.Keywordsinterestratefluctuations;lifeinsuranceneeds;substitutioneffect；Priceeffect-II-目录摘要......................................................................................................................IAbstract...............................................................................................................II第1章绪论........................................................................................................11.1研究的背景...............................................................................................11.2研究目的和意义.......................................................................................11.3研究内容和方法.......................................................................................2第2章相关理论基础........................................................................................42.1相关概念...................................................................................................42.2利率波动时的替代效应和价格效应.......................................................42.3利率波动对寿险需求的影响...................................................................5第3章我国寿险业利率风险情况分析............................................................73.1我国寿险业面临的利率困境...................................................................73.1.1预定利率困境....................................................................................73.1.2产品创新困境....................................................................................73.1.3资金运用困境....................................................................................83.2寿险产品利率风险产生的根源...............................................................83.2.1产品利率设定与银行利率不协调....................................................83.2.2对资金运用不当造成的利率风险....................................................93.2.3对寿险产品认知的偏差带来的利率风险........................................9第4章日本寿险业发展经验及对我国的启示..............................................104.1日本寿险业的盛衰变迁.........................................................................104.1.1日本寿险业的鼎盛发展..................................................................104.1.2日本寿险市场衰退因素探析..........................................................104.2对我国寿险需求方面的启示.................................................................124.2.1预防高利率产品的过度扩张加强经营成本的核算......................124.2.2适当放宽保险资金的运用渠道并加强监管..................................12第5章防范利率波动不利影响的对策建议..................................................145.1科学管理寿险产品.................................................................................145.1.1科学厘定费率..................................................................................145.1.2加强新型寿险品种的开发销售......................................................145.1.3加快寿险产品转型步伐..................................................................145.2提高资金运用管理能力.........................................................................155.2.1继续放宽资金运用渠道..................................................................155.2.2提高专业化资金管理能力..............................................................155.3完善外部市场环境以减小价格效应.....................................................165.3.1加强行业政府的监管......................................................................165.3.2培养健康的寿险消费观念..............................................................165.4放松保险费率管制.................................................................................17结论...............................................................................