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MartinJacques：UnderstandingtheriseofChinaAboutthistalkSpeakingataTEDSaloninLondon,economistMartinJacquesasks:HowdoweintheWestmakesenseofChinaanditsphenomenalrise?TheauthorofWhenChinaRulestheWorld,heexamineswhytheWestoftenpuzzlesoverthegrowingpoweroftheChineseeconomy,andoffersthreebuildingblocksforunderstandingwhatChinaisandwillbecome.AboutMartinJacquesMartinJacquesistheauthorofWhenChinaRulestheWorld,andacolumnistfortheGuardianandNewStatesman.Hewasaco-founderofthethinktankDemos.Theworldischangingwithreallyremarkablespeed.Ifyoulookatthechartatthetophere,you'llseethatin2025,theseGoldmanSachsprojectionssuggestthattheChineseeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheAmericaneconomy.Andifyoulookatthechartfor2050,it'sprojectedthattheChineseeconomywillbetwicethesizeoftheAmericaneconomy,andtheIndianeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheAmericaneconomy.AndweshouldbearinmindherethattheseprojectionsweredrawnupbeforetheWesternfinancialcrisis.Acoupleofweeksago,IwaslookingatthelatestprojectionbyBNPParibasforwhenChinawillhavealargereconomythantheUnitedStates.GoldmanSachsprojected2027.Thepost-crisisprojectionis2020.That'sjustadecadeaway.Chinaisgoingtochangetheworldintwofundamentalrespects.Firstofall,it'sahugedevelopingcountrywithapopulationof1.3billionpeople,whichhasbeengrowingforover30yearsataround10percentayear.Andwithinadecade,itwillhavethelargesteconomyintheworld.Neverbeforeinthemodernerahasthelargesteconomyintheworldbeenthatofadevelopingcountry,ratherthanadevelopedcountry.Secondly,forthefirsttimeinthemodernera,thedominantcountryintheworld--whichIthinkiswhatChinawillbecome--willbenotfromtheWestandfromvery,verydifferentcivilizationalroots.NowIknowit'sawidespreadassumptionintheWestthat,ascountriesmodernize,theyalsoWesternize.Thisisanillusion.It'sanassumptionthatmodernityisaproductsimplyofcompetition,marketsandtechnology.Itisnot;itisalsoshapedequallybyhistoryandculture.ChinaisnotliketheWest,anditwillnotbecomeliketheWest.Itwillremaininveryfundamentalrespectsverydifferent.Nowthebigquestionhereisobviously,howdowemakesenseofChina?HowdowetrytounderstandwhatChinais?AndtheproblemwehaveintheWestatthemomentby-and-largeisthattheconventionalapproachisthatweunderstanditreallyinWesternterms,usingWesternideas.Wecan't.NowIwanttoofferyouthreebuildingblocksfortryingtounderstandwhatChinaislike--justasabeginning.Thefirstisthis,thatChinaisnotreallyanationstate.Okay,it'scalleditselfanationstateforthelasthundredyears.ButeveryonewhoknowsanythingaboutChinaknowsit'salotolderthanthis.ThiswaswhatChinalookedlikewiththevictoryoftheQinDynastyin221B.C.attheendofthewarringstateperiod--thebirthofmodernChina.AndyoucanseeitagainsttheboundariesofmodernChina.Orimmediatelyafterward,theHanDynasty,still2,000yearsago.AndyoucanseealreadyitoccupiesmostofwhatwenowknowasEasternChina,whichiswherethevastmajorityofChineselivedthenandlivenow.Nowwhatisextraordinaryaboutthisis,whatgivesChinait'ssenseofbeingChina,whatgivestheChinesethesenseofwhatitistobeChinese,comesnotfromthelasthundredyears,notfromthenationstateperiod,whichiswhathappenedintheWest,butfromtheperiod,ifyoulike,ofthecivilizationstate.I'mthinkinghere,forexample,ofcustomslikeancestralworship,ofaverydistinctivenotionofthestate,likewise,averydistinctivenotionofthefamily,socialrelationshipslikeguanxi,Confucianvaluesandsoon.Theseareallthingsthatcomefromtheperiodofthecivilizationstate.Inotherwords,China,unliketheWesternstatesandmostcountriesintheworld,isshapedbyitssenseofcivilization,itsexistenceasacivilizationstate,ratherthanasanationstate.Andthere'soneotherthingtoaddtothis,andthatisthis:OfcourseweknowChina'sbig,huge,demographicallyandgeographically,withapopulationof1.3billionpeople.Whatweoftenaren'treallyawareofisthefactthatChinaisextremelydiverseandverypluralistic,andinmanywaysverydecentralized.Youcan'trunaplaceonthisscalesimplyfromBeijing,eventhoughwethinkthistobethecase.It'sneverbeenthecase.SothisisChina,acivilizationstate,ratherthananationstate.Andwhatdoesitmean?WellIthinkithasallsortsofprofoundimplications.I'llgiveyoutwoquickones.ThefirstisthatthemostimportantpoliticalvaluefortheChineseisunity,isthemaintenanceofChinesecivilization.Youknow,2,000yearsago,Europe:breakdown,thefragmentationoftheHolyRomanEmpire[RomanEmpire].Itdivided,andit'sremaineddividedeversince.China,overthesametimeperiod,wentinexactlytheoppositedirection,verypainfullyholdingthishugecivilization,civilizationstatetogether.Thesecondismaybemoreprosaic,whichisHongKong.DoyourememberthehandoverofHongKongbyBritaintoChinain1997?YoumayrememberwhattheChineseconstitutionalpropositionwas.Onecountry,twosystems.AndI'lllayawagerthatbarelyanyoneintheWestbelievedthem.Windowdressing.WhenChinagetsit'shandsonHongKong,thatwon'tbethecase.13yearson,thepoliticalandlegalsysteminHongKongisasdifferentnowasitwasin1997.Wewerewrong.Whywerewewrong?Wewerewrongbecausewethought,naturallyenough,innationstateways.ThinkofGermanunification,1990.Whathappened?Well,basicallytheEastwasswallowedbytheWest.Onenation,onesystem.Thatisthenationstatementality.Butyoucan'trunacountrylikeChina,acivilization