The Transition to Electric Bikes in China_Effect o

Weinert,Ma,Yang,Cherry1TheTransitiontoElectricBikesinChina:EffectonTravelBehavior,ModeShift,andUserSafetyPerceptionsinaMedium-SizedCityJonathanX.WeinertInstituteofTransportationStudies,GraduateStudentResearcherUniversityofCalifornia,Davis.OneShieldsAvenue,Davis,CA95616Phone:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]ransportationEngineering,GraduateStudentResearcherTsinghuaUniversityBeijing,China100084Phone:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]ansportationEngineering,AssociateProfessorTsinghuaUniversityBeijing,China100084Phone:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]rtationStudies,GraduateStudentResearcherUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.2614DwightWay,Berkeley,CA94720Phone:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]ionandPublicationCallForPapersABE9086thAnnualMeetingTransportationResearchBoardSubmittedJuly31,2006WordCount:4,711+11Figures(2,750words)=7,561(notincludingabstract(241)andreferences(290))Weinert,Ma,Yang,Cherry2ABSTRACTDespiterapideconomicgrowthinChinaoverthepastdecadeandriseinpersonalcarownership,mostChinesestillrelyontwo-wheeledvehicles(2WV)orpublictransportforcommuting.Themajorityofthese2WVsarebicycles.Inrecentyears,concernaboutpoorairqualityinurbanareasandrisingenergycostshavecausedcitiestobangasoline-poweredscootersincitycenters.Simultaneously,anew2WVmodeemergedtofillthevoid:theelectricbike(e-bike).Thisshifttoe-bikesisoccurringatrapidpacethroughoutChina,especiallyinitscities.E-bikesalesreached10millionperyearin2005asmorebikeandpublictransitusersshiftedtothismode.Cityplannersandpolicymakersareundecidedonhowtoplanforandregulatee-bikesbecauseitisnotyetclearwhateffecttheywillhaveontravelbehavior,publictransportationuse,andsafety.Tobegintounderstandtheseeffects,theauthorshavesurveyedbikeande-bikeusersinShijiazhuang,amedium-sizedcitywithparticularlyhightwo-wheeledvehicle(2WV)use,toidentifydifferencesintravelcharacteristicsandattitudes.Weconcludethefollowing:(partiallist)•E-bikesareenablingpeopletocommutelongerdistances.Thishasimportantimplicationsonenergyuse,accessibilityandurbanexpansionofcities.•Peopleunder-servedbypublictransportationareshiftingtoe-bike.•Womenfeelsafercrossingintersectionsonane-bikecomparedtoregularbike,howevertheyhavestrongreservationsaboutincreasinge-bikespeedcapability.Weinert,Ma,Yang,Cherry3INTRODUCTIONTwo-wheeledvehicles(2WV;e.g.bicycles,e-bikes,motorscooters,motorcycles)havehistoricallybeenanimportantcomponentoftrafficthroughoutChinaandmanyotherdevelopingcountries.InmediumandlargeChinesecitieslikeShijiazhuang,thedominant2WVsarebicycles.Bicycles,estimatedat450millionnationallyin2004[1],havebeenandstillremainthedominant2WVinChinesecities,mainlyduetolowincome,highpopulationdensity(andthusshorttrips),andextensivebicycleinfrastructure(e.g.lanes,parking).Basedonstatisticalreportin2005,bicycletripshareisstillover50%inmanylargecitieslikeTianjin,Xi’anandShijiazhuang[2].Gasoline-poweredmotorscooters(GMSs)usedtomakeupalargerpercentageoftheoverall2WVpopulation,however,beginninginlate1990s,manylargecities(population1million)andmostcapitalcitieshavestoppedlicensingthesevehicles.TotalGMSsinChinanumbered80millionin2005[3].Althoughnumbersarestillgrowinginthewideruralareasandsmallcities,itisestimatedthatwithouturbanrestrictions,4~5millionmorewouldbeontheroads[4].Inrecentyearshowever,duetoimprovedstandardoflivingandrapidurbanization,Chineseareshiftingfrombike(orpublictransit)toelectricbikes(e-bikes)astheydemandmoreflexible,convenientandcomfortablemobility.In2005,therewereanestimated20-22millione-bikesinChina[5].Productionisexpectedtogrow80%annuallyoverthenextfiveyears[6].ThroughoutChina,however,therearemixedviewsbygovernmentaboute-bikesandtheireffectontraffic.InMay2006,anationalgovernmentagencyissuedareportpromotinge-bikesfortheirairqualityandenergy-savingbenefits[6].InNovember2006though,GuangzhoubecamethethirdcityinChinatobane-bikes(behindFuzhouandZhuhai),underadvicefromthetrafficmanagementbureaucitingtrafficsafetyconcerns[7].Thesafetyissueofe-bikesmixedintrafficisakeyconsiderationinthedraftingofnewNationalE-BikeStandards,whichareunderrevisionandunderintensedebate.Thestandardregulatesthetechnicalperformancespecificationofe-bikes(seesectionbelow).BicycleproponentssuchastheChinaBicycleAssociation(CBA)wanttolimite-bikeperformancetomakethemmoresimilartobicycle,andforfearthatfaster,heaviere-bikeswillmakethemdangeroustocyclists.E-bikemanufacturers,however,wanttobroadenthelimitsonweight,widthandpowertobeabletobuildproductsthattheyclaimcustomerswant.Whatevernewstandardisadoptedwillgreatlyeffectthefuturedirectionofe-bikedevelopmentinChina.E-bikebackgroundE-bikescanbeclassifiedasa“semi”-motorizedvehiclebecausetheycanrunoneitherhumanpowerorelectricity.TheyhavebecomeapopulartransportationmodeinChinabecausetheyprovideaninexpensiveformofprivatemobilityandarethusanattractivealternativetopublictransitorregularbicycling.Withanaverageenergyconsumptionof1.2-1.5kWh/100km,e-bikesofferextremelyeff