教育统计学讲义1009

DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation教育统计学STATISTICSOFEDUCATION主讲：易立新DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation第一章绪论第二章数据的初步整理第三章集中量第四章差异量第五章概率极概率分布第六章抽样分布及总体平均数的推断DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation第七章平均数差异的显著性检验第八章方差分析第九章总体比率的推断第十章χ²检验第十一章相关分析第十二章回归分析DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation第十三章非参数检验第十四章抽样设计DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation第一章绪论INTRODUCTION主要内容：•统计学的发展史简介•教育统计学的主要内容•统计学中的基本概念DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation1.1统计学的发展史简介1.1.1统计学的起源STATISTICS(统计学)一词源于法语STATUS(状态)自中世纪以来逐渐演变为含有政治意味的STATE(国家)。因此，统计学包含有对国家状态作调查研究的意义。H.Conring创立国势学体系但它与现代统计学不同的是国势学不用数字资料，而只用文字的描述十七世纪，政治算术统计学在英国兴起。概率论的起源与发展。概率论的发展最早源于赌博DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationC.Huygens著《骰子赌博的理论》伯努利的研究高斯的研究：高斯曲线描述统计学的发展：生物统计学的影响F.galton主要研究平均值的偏差和回归问题K.Pearson在前者的基础上发展出许多描述统计方法：频数分布、频数分布函数、回归、相关、拟合度等。推断统计学的诞生W.S.Gorsset(Student)开始研究R.A.Fisher统计推断学的创立DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation1.1.2统计学的应用1.1.3统计学的发展理论和方法不断地被完善和深化从线性到非线性；从低维到高维；从显在到潜在；从连续到离散计算机及相关的软件成为统计工作中不可少的工具SPSS、SAS、DATA-TEST、STATA等软件发展成为独立的交叉性学科是一种独立的学科，是一种方法论DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation1.2教育统计学的主要内容1.2.1统计学与教育统计学1.统计学(Statistics)统计学是研究统计原理和方法的科学。具体：是研究如何搜集、整理、分析反映事物总体的数字资料，并以此为依据，对总体特征进行推断的原理和方法。2.教育统计学(Statisticsofeducation)教育统计学是运用数理统计的原理和方法研究教育问题的一门应用科学。主要任务：研究如何搜集、整理、分析由教育调查和教育实验等途径所获得的数字资料，并以此为依据，进行科学推断，从而揭示蕴含在教育现象中的客观规律。具体：提供各种统计方法的应用条件对统计计算结果的解释DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation1.2.2教育统计学的基本内容1.描述统计(DescriptiveStatistics)对已获得的数据进行整理、概括，显现其分布特征的统计方法，称为描述统计。常用的描述统计方法：集中量、差异量、标准分数、相关量。2.推断统计(InferentialStatistics)根据样本所提供的信息，运用概率的理论进行分析、论证。在一定可靠程度上对总体分布特征进行估计、推测。这种统计方法成为推断统计。3.实验设计(Experimentaldesigns)实验者为了揭示实验中自变量与因变量的关系，在实验前所制订的实验计划称为实验设计。DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation包括：○选择怎样的抽样方式○如何计算样本容量○确定怎样的实验对照形式○如何实现实验组和对照组的等组化○如何安排实验因素○如何控制无关变量○用什么统计方法处理及分析实验结果。4.描述统计、推断统计、实验设计三者之间的关系•描述统计是推断统计的基础•推断统计是描述统计的升华•良好的实验设计是获得真实的，有价值的数据，并推测未知的教育结果的保证DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation1.2.3教育统计学的结构资料收集描述统计推断统计概率论•经常性资料•调查数据•实验数据•历史资料•测验数据•统计图表•集中量•差异量•相关量•预测统计predictive•Z检验•T检验•非参数检验•方差分析DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation1.3教育统计学中的基本概念1.变量与常量(VariablevsConstant)2.随机变量(RandomVariable)表示随机现象各种结果的变量随机现象：一次方试验有多种可能的结果；试验前不能预料哪一种结果会出现；试验可以重复。随机事件：3.总体与样本(PopulationvsSample)4.统计量与参数(StatisticvsParameter)样本的数字特征称为统计量总体的数字特征称为参数DepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUDepartmentofSpecialEducationECNUStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducationStatisticsofEducation