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200902(232)EastChinaEconomicManagementFeb1,2009(Vol.23,No.2)[]20080527[](20070698047)[](1977),,,,:;(1961),,,,,:,,(,710049)[],,,,[];;;[]F275[]A[]10075097(2009)02007106ResearchontheEconomicConsequencesofEarningsManagementBasedonRealActivitiesManipulationanExamplefromExpensesManipulationLIBin,ZHANGJun2rui(SchoolofManagement,XipanJiaotongUniversity,Xipan710049,China)Abstract:Fromtheperspectiveofexpensesmanipulation,thispaperidentifiesfirmsthatengageinexpensesmanipulationhavelowersubsequentoperatingperformancethanmatchingfirms(non2expensesmanipulation),bycomparingandcontrastingthesubsequentthree-yearoperatingperformance,andconcludesexpensesmanipulationhasasignificantlynegativeimpactonfutureoperatingperformance.Theconclusioncontributestotheliteratureontheeconomicconsequencesofearningsmanagementbasedonrealactivitiesmanipulation.Keywords:realactivitiesmanipulation;expensesmanipulation;earningsmanagement;economicconsequences(Ayres,1994[1];Scott,2003[2]),,,()(Graham,2005[3];Roychowdhury,2006[4]),(Gunny,2005)[5],,()(Schipper,1989[6];Healy,1999[7]),:();();(17)(DechowSkinner,2000[8]),:,,(),:11,(),;21(BartonSimko,2002[9]),(Degeorge,1999[10]),;31,,,:11,(Bartov,1993[11];Bushee,1998[12]);21,(Roychowdhury,2006[4]);31,,,;41(Herrmann,2003[13]);51,(Graham,2005[3])()Bens(2002)[14],,,,();EwertWagenhofer(2005)[15],,,;Gunny(2005)[5],,;XuTaylor(2007)[16],,,,,,,A,,(),,;,,(),,Roychowdhury(2006)[4],,,,,:(),(),,,,,(),Roychowdhury(2006)[4],,,:DISEXPijt/Aijt-1=0/Aijt-1+1(Sijt-1/Aijt-1)+ijt(1)OLS(1),(1),,,(2),27(AEXP)AEXPijt/Aijt-1=DISEXPijt/Aijt-1-[0/Aijt-1+1(Sijt-1/Aijt-1)](2):DISEXP,;A;S;AEXP;;;i,j,t()2007CSMAR,,,1219982006,0,6858,19982003,19982006()11,:(1)(AEXP),AEXP,(AEXP-01031,814);(2),,(,),[9],,[15]BartonSimko(2002)[9],/(NOAt-1/Salest-1),NOAt-1/Salest-1,,BSCNOAt-1/Sa2lest-1,BSC,;BSC,BSC,(BSC21048,814),;(3)(AEXP-01031BSC21048),11821,:(1);(2),AEXP-01031BSC21048;(3)(=-)Chan(2004)[17]Bradshaw(2001)[18],,,(Por2tAcc),PortAcc,;(4)(ROAt)(CFOAt)[85%,115%]102,16,31,1,,,,199824,200148,,2003221:19981999200020012002200312211824161110212211824161110224423648322220437()Bens(2002)[14]Gunny(2005)[5],(ROAt+n)(CFOAt+n),,:ROAt+1=0+1SP1+2ROEt+3CRt+4LnAt+5PortAcct+1(3)ROAt+2=0+1SP1+2ROEt+3CRt+4LnAt+5PortAcct+2(4)ROAt+3=0+1SP1+2ROEt+3CRt+4LnAt+5PortAcct+3(5)CFOAt+1=0+1SP1+2ROEt+3CRt+4LnAt+5PortAcct+_1(6)CFOAt+2=0+1SP1+2ROEt+3CRt+4LnAt+5PortAcct+_2(7)CFOAt+3=0+1SP1+2ROEt+3CRt+4LnAt+5PortAcct+_3(8),ROAt+nCFOAt+nt+n(n=1,2,3);;;SPt,,SPt1,t,SPt0,t;ROEt,t,;CRt,t,(Krishnan,1997[19];Gleason,2000[20];Berger,2006[21]);LnAt,t,(SmithWatts,1992[22];Bens,2002[14]);Por2tAcct,t,(Chan,2004[17];Bradshaw,2001[18])()2(SP=1)(SP=0)(ROAt+n)(CFOAt+n),n123:(ROAt+1ROAt+3)(CFOAt+2CFOAt+3);(ROAt+2)(CFOAt+1),01001,,,22:(SP=0)(SP=1);3,33,33310%,5%1%()3SPROAt+1ROAt+3,CFOAt+2CFOAt+3,ROAt+2CFOAt+1,013,01382(ROAt+1ROAt+2)01302(CFOAt+1ROAt+2)01383(ROAt+247CFOAt+2)01360(ROAt+3CFOAt+3)01350(ROEPortAcc),,,,;(ROEPortAcc),,,(VIF)10,011,013,,()4,(3)(8),(3)(4)(5),SP-0100701005-01001,,(ROAt+1ROAt+3),(ROAt+2);(6)(7)(8),SP01004-010123:3,33,33310%,5%1%4:3,33,33310%,5%1%,t575:3,33,33310%,5%1%,t-01020,,(CFOAt+2CFOAt+3),(CFOAt+1)(,),,,(),,(DTA)(CR),(ROA)(ROE)(5),SP(3)(4)(5)-0100601006-01002,(6)(7)(8)01003-01009-01018,,,A,,,(ROA)(CFOA),,,,,[][1]FranessL,Ayres.Perceptionsofearningsquality:whatmanagersneedtoknow[J].ManagementAccounting,1994,75(9):27-29.[2]WilliamRScott.FinancialAccountingTheory[M].Toron2to,Canada:PrenticeHall,2003:368-391.[3]GrahamJR,HarveyCR,RajgopalS..Theeconomicim2plicationsofcorporatefinancialreporting[J].JournalofAccountingandEconomics,2005,40:3-73.[4]SugataRoychowdhury.Earningsmanagementthroughrealactivitiesmanipulation[J].JournalofAccountingandE2conomics,2006,42:335-370.[5]KatherineAnnGunny.Whataretheconsequencesofrealearningsmanagement[R].California:UniversityofCali2fornia,2005.[6]SchipperK.Commentaryonearningsmanagement[J].AccountingHorizons,1989,3(11):91-102.(126)67[6].[M].:,1990:58-59.[7]F.[M].,,:,1997:99.[8].[M].,,:,2004:232.[9].[M].,.:,2002:4.[10].[A].,WH.[C].:,1986:6.[11].[M].:,2003:12.[12].[M].:,1994:231.[13].[M].:,1987:63.[14].[M].,.:,1987:45.[15].[M].:,2006:16.[16][].[M].,.:,2006:80,126.[17].[M].,.:,2007:9.[18]F,DG.[M].,.:,1988:1-2.[19].[M].:,2004:22.[:][:](76)[7]HealyPM.Theeffectofbonusschemesonaccountingdeci2sions[J].JournalofAccountingandEconomics,1985,7:85-107.[8]DechowPM,SkinnerD.Earningsmanagement:reconci2lingtheviewsofaccountingacademics,practitioners,andregulators[J].AccountingHorizons,2000,14:235-250.[9]BartonJ,SimkoP.Thebalancesheetasanearningsman2agementconstraint[J].TheAccountingReview,2002,77:1-27.[10]DegeorgeF,PatelJ,ZeckhauserR.Earningsmanagementtoexceedthresholds[J].JournalofBusiness,1999,72(1):1-33.[11]BartovEli.TheTimingofAssetSalesandEarningsMa2nipulation[J].TheAccountingReview,1993,68(4):840-855.[12]BusheeBrianJ.TheinfluenceofinstitutionalinvestorsonmyopicR&Dinvestmentbehavior[J].TheAccountingReview,1998,73(3):305-331.[13]Herrmann,Don.Inoue,Tatsuo.Thomas,WayneB.TheSaleofAssetstoManageEarningsinJapan[J].JournalofAccountingResearch,2003,41(1):89-108.[