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中国猪肉消费现状和发展趋势ThecurrentsituationandtrendofporkconsumptioninChina王珺中山大学岭南学院经济学教授国家生猪产业技术体系产业经济研究室主任WangJunProfessorofLingnanCollege,SunYat-senUniversityChinaAgricultureResearchSystem,swineindustrybranch2主要内容Outline目前我国猪肉的消费总量、人均消费及城乡差异改革开放以来我国猪肉消费的变动特征我国与世界主要国家的猪肉消费比较我国猪肉消费的发展趋势Thetotalporkconsumption,percapitaporkconsumption,andthedifferencesofporkconsumptionbetweentheurbanandruralresidentsinChina.ThemaincharactersofporkconsumptioninChinasince1978.ThecomparisionoftheporkconsumptioninChinaandothercountries.ThetrendofporkconsumptioninChina.3一、目前我国猪肉的消费总量、人均消费及城乡差异1.Thetotalconsumption,consumptionofpercapita,andthedifferencebetweentheurbanandruralresidents消费总量TotalporkconsumptioninChina01000200030004000500060001979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009猪肉消费总量，Totalporkconsumption中国猪肉消费总量（单位：万吨）,Totalporkconsumption（10,000ton）注释：以下数据来源于：中国统计年鉴、中国畜牧业年鉴、中国农村统计年鉴、FAO、USDA、EUROstat等,thedatasusedhereandfollowingslidesareobtainedfromFAOSTATA,USDA，EUROstat，ChinaStatisticalYearbook，ChinaLivestockIndustryYearbook，ChinaRuralStatisticalYearbook.401020304050607019791982198519881991199419972000200320062009出口,export进口,import中国猪肉进口和出口（单位：万吨）TheporkimportandexportofChina（10,000ton）5人均消费量Percapitaporkconsumption05101520253035401979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009050001000015000200002500030000人均猪肉消费量percapitaporkconsumption人均国内生产总值percapitaGDP中国历年人均GDP及人均猪肉消费量（单位：元、kg)AnnualpercapitaGDPandporkconsumptioninChina（RMBYuan,Kg）6城乡差异Thedifferenceofconsumptionbetweenurbanandruralresidents.9111315171921231983年1985年1987年1989年1991年1993年1995年1997年1999年2001年2003年2005年2007年2009年城镇家庭人均消费percapitaporkconsumptionathomeofurbanresidents农村家庭人均消费percapitaporkconsumptionathomeofruralresidents中国城乡人均猪肉家庭消费量（单位：公斤）Percapitaporkconsumptionathomeoftheurbanandruralresidents（Kg）7猪肉需求对收入的弹性较低Theincomeelasticityofporkdemandislow.猪肉需求对价格的弹性较低Thepriceelasticityofporkdemandislow随着收入增长，猪肉人均消费支出比重下降，人均消费量先上升后下降Withtheincreaseoftheincome,theshareofpercapitaporkexpendituredecreaseandthepercapitaporkconsumptionincreaseandthendecrease.二、改革开放以来我国猪肉消费的变动特征2.ThemaincharactersofporkconsumptioninChinasince1978.8猪肉消费对收入的弹性较低Theincomeelasticityofporkdemandislow.城镇需求收入弹性Incomeelasticityofurbanresidents农村需求收入弹性Incomeelasticityofruralresidents1992-0.68-0.491993-0.190.001994-0.20-0.9319950.150.381996-0.260.951997-3.16-0.6019980.640.7819990.691.752000-0.172.202001-0.590.1320021.900.5320030.090.142004-0.84-0.3520050.531.832006-0.08-0.132007-0.82-1.6020080.70-0.7220090.671.20平均average0.670.829需求收入弹性的城乡差异Differenceofincomeelasticitybetweenurbanandruralresidents050010001500200025003000350019791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720090510152025城镇人均可支配收入percapitadisposableincomeofurbanresidents城镇居民人均家庭消费量percapitaporkconsumptionathomeofurbanresidents收入income消费量consumption02004006008001000120014001979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009024681012141618农村居民人均纯收入percapitadisposableincomeofruralresidents农村居民家庭人均猪肉消费量percapitaporkconsumptionathomeofruralresidents收入income消费量consumption城镇居民可支配收入与人均猪肉家庭消费量（单位：元、公斤）thedisposableincomeandpercapitaporkconsumptionofurbanresidents(RMByuan,Kg)农村居民可支配收入与人均猪肉家庭消费量（单位：元、公斤）thedisposableincomeandpercapitaporkconsumptionofruralresidents(RMByuan,Kg)10猪肉需求价格弹性较低ThepriceelasticityofporkdemandislowiitDcuβ+++∑201234567lnlnlnlnlnlnlnlnititititititititqxxporkeggchickenbeefmuttonββββββββ=+++++++主要数据：各省、市城镇居民季度猪肉消费支出数据（2007-2010）数据来源：国家统计局计量方法：面板数据的固定效应模型，对个体固定效应和时间固定效应进行了控制变量：qit人均猪肉消费量，xit人均可支配收入，porkit,猪肉价格，eggit鸡蛋价格，beefit牛肉价格，muttonit羊肉价格，D，时间哑变量计量模型：Economitricmodel：11计量结果：Economitricresultsz人均可支配收入与人均猪肉消费量呈倒U型关系z猪肉消费对猪肉价格的弹性为-0.2284z鸡蛋对猪肉有一定的替代效应。z牛肉和羊肉对猪肉存在一定的替代效应，但替代弹性很小，统计上也不显著。z猪肉与鸡肉互补还是替代？系数coefficentsP值人均可支配收入的对数Percapitadisposableincome2.43660.028人均可支配收入平方项Squareofpercapitaincome-0.16840.01猪肉价格对数Logofporkprice-0.22840.071鸡蛋价格对数Logofeggprice0.18020.104鸡肉价格对数Logofchickenprice-0.32330.000牛肉价格对数Logofbeefprice0.07450.509羊肉价格对数Logofmuttonprice0.01460.863常数项Constant-6.58130.150因变量：人均猪肉消费量的对数Dependantvariable:logofpercapitaporkconsumption12随着收入增长，猪肉人均消费支出比重下降，人均消费量先上升后下降Withtheincreaseoftheincome,theshareofpercapitaporkexpendituredecreaseandthepercapitaporkconsumptionincreaseandthendecrease.当人均可支配收入为11700元时，猪肉占食品消费支出的13%，此时每年人均支出大约为550元左右，当人均可支配收入为28800元时，猪肉占食品消费支出7%，此时，每年人均猪肉支出大约为600元左右。00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.180.205000100001500020000250003000035000人均可支配收入猪肉消费支出占食品消费支出比重人均可支配收入与猪肉在食品消费支出中所占比重注：25个省、市，2008、2009年城镇居民人均可支配收入及猪肉和食品消费支出数据绘制而成。13全国人均消费水平上升空间估计（公斤，2006年资料）PerCapita（whole)PerCapita（rural）PerCapita(urban)Percapita(highincomeinUrban)DistancetourbanresidantsDistancetohighincomeresidantsinurban全国人均农村人均城镇人均城镇中上层40%人均距城镇人均上升空间距中上层40%上升空间肉禽及制品，meatandpoultry26.6122.3132.1235.7921%34%猪肉pork17.4515.4620.0021.6315%24%牛肉beef1.430.672.412.7068%89%羊肉mutton1.100.901.371.5324%39%家禽poultry5.633.518.349.9348%76%蛋及制品egg7.385.0010.4111.0841%50%奶及制品milk11.663.1522.5429.5293%153%水产品Aquaticproducts7.585.0110.8513.7543%81%粮食(原粮)Grain148.68205.6275.