神华煤制烯烃展望

第十届洁净煤论坛2013TheDevelopmentSituationandProspectsofCoaltoOlefin(CTO)IndustryinChina岳国YUEGuo中国神华煤制油化工有限公司ChinaShenhuaCoaltoLiquidandChemicalCo.,Ltd.June2013中国煤制烯烃产业的发展与展望报告提纲Outline一、中国发展煤制烯烃符合国情、意义重大TheDevelopmentofCTOIndustryisAccordingwithChineseNationalConditionandHavingImportantSignificance二、烯烃产品市场空间广阔BroadMarketofOlefinProducts三、煤制烯烃项目运行及发展情况MatureandReliableCTOTechnology四、中国发展煤制烯烃经济上有竞争力EconomicAdvantageofChineseCTOindustry五、发展煤制烯烃产业面临机遇与挑战OpportunitiesandChallengesofCTOindustry六、认识和体会ExperienceandIdeas一、中国发展煤制烯烃符合国情、意义重大TheDevelopmentofCTOIndustryisaccordingwithChineseNationalConditionandHavinganImportantSignificance第十届洁净煤论坛2013中国已成为能源生产和消费大国Chinahasbecomethelargeenergyproducerandconsumerintheworld.2012年能源生产与消费Energyproductionandconsumption.能源生产31.8亿吨（标煤）Energyproduction:3.18billiontons.能源消费34.8亿吨（标煤）Energyconsumption:3.48billiontons.※中国能源供需快速增长、结构以煤为主RapidGrowthofEnergySupplyandDemand,StructureDominatedbyCoal.中国能源生产与消耗情况SituationofEnergyProductionandConsumptioninChinaEnergyConsumptionStructureofChinain2010TotalEnergyConsumption:325milliontstandardcoalHydropowerNaturalGasCrudeOilCoal中国能源生产和消费总量0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.001980198519901995200020052010年份亿吨标煤能源消费总量能源生产总量中国占世界能源消费总量的份额，由2000年的9.0%提高到2010年的20.8%。EnergyConsumptionEnergyProduction中国的石油消费高度对外依赖DependenceonForeignofPetroleumConsumption石油生产与消费总量-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012年份产量与消费量（亿t）石油生产量石油消费量石油进口量中国石油生产与消费总量TotalOilProductionandConsumption年份ProductionConsumptionImportProductionandConsumption(0.1billiont)Year近年来国际原油价格走势及预测进口石油成本升高TheRisingCostofImportedOil近年来，国际石油价格持续攀升并高位振荡，增加中国石油进口的成本。Inrecentyears,theinternationaloilpricescontinuetoclimbandfluctuateinhigh-level.dollars/barreltheTrendandForecastofInternationalCrudeOilPrice中国的石油消费高度对外依赖DependenceonForeignofPetroleumConsumption经济快速发展,单位GDP耗能高,能源需求增长迅速。尤其是石油消费和进口逐年快速增长。RapideconomicgrowthandhighunitGDPenergyconsumptionresultinrapidenergydemandgrowth.China‘sOilConsumptionandImporthavebeenIncreasingYearonYear.theoilconsumptionandimportsgrowquicklyyearafteryear.2012年，中国消费石油4.89亿吨，石油净进口2.84亿吨，对外依存度58%，比上年提高1.5%。中国或将成为名副其实的世界石油第一大净进口国。In2012,Chinaoilconsumptionis489milliontonsandnetoilimportis284millionstons.Foreigndependenceratioofoilisincreasedto58%,1.5%higherthanlastyear.Chinawillbecometheworld’slargestnetimporterofoil.中国的石油消费高度对外依赖DependenceonForeignofPetroleumConsumption2011年,中国进口石油累计金额约1970亿美元；因中东、北非动荡，多支付600亿美元。吨油均价从2010年全年平均565.4美元增长至2011年774.9美元，增幅达到了37%。Inthesameyear,Chinaimportedoilworthof197billionUSD,anadditionalof60billionUSDbecauseofturmoilinMiddleEastandNorthAfrica.Theaveragepricewasincreasedfrom565.4USD/tonin2010to774.9USD/tonin2011,anincreaseof37%.在高油价时代大量进口石油，经济负担沉重；战略安全受到国际及地缘政治、军事威胁。Whenoilpriceswashigh,chinaimportedoilingreatquantities,whichresultedinheavyeconomicburden.Atthesametime,strategicsecuritywasthreatedbyinternationalandregionalpoliticsandmilitary.中国的石油消费高度对外依赖DependenceonForeignofPetroleumConsumption0510152025303540451990200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012年份煤炭生产和消费量/亿吨原煤生产量（亿吨）商品煤消费量（亿吨）中国煤炭生产和消费量逐年增加Chinesecoalproductionandconsumptionisincreasingyearbyyear2012年我国煤炭产量36.5亿吨，约占一次能源生产总量78.4％,煤炭消费约占一次能源消费总量72.6％。中国以煤为主的能源结构面临生态环境的压力！In2012,Chinesecoalproductionis3.65billiontons,takingaproportionof78.4%inthetotalproductionofdomesticprimaryenergysources,whilethecoalconsumptiontakesabout72.6%ofthetotalconsumptionofdomesticprimaryenergysources.CoalProduction(0.1billion)CoalConsumption(0.1billion)CoalProductionandCoalConsumption(0.1billion)Year中国的能源结构面临挑战ChallengesofChina'sEnergyStructure基于“以煤为主，缺油少气”的能源结构，充分利用丰富的煤炭资源，优化终端能源结构。Basedonenergystructureof“richcoal,meageroilandlittlegas”,weshouldmakefulluseoftheabundantcoalresourcesandoptimizethestructureofterminalthesourcesofenergy.工业化过程中，产业结构以“重化工业”为主，能源结构以“高碳能源”为主，可持续发展压力巨大；推进煤炭的低碳、清洁、高效利用，缓解环境保护与温室气体排放压力。Intheprocessofindustrialization,industrystructuredominatedby“heavychemicalindustry”andenergystructuredominatedbyhighcarbonmakesustainabledevelopmentfaceenormouspressure.Effortsneedtobemadetoutilizecoalinalowcarbon,cleanandefficientmanner,whichcanimproveecologyandenvironment,andreducegreenhousegasemissions.中国的能源结构面临挑战ChallengesofChina'sEnergyStructure发展煤/甲醇制烯烃社会意义重大SocialSignificanceofCTODevelopment探索石油替代途径:充分利用丰富的煤炭资源，探索石油替代的新途径。Exploreoilsubstitutionmethod:fullyutilizecoalenergyandexploreanewtrailforChina’soilsubstitution.创新煤企发展模式:由“资源开发型”向“创新效益型”转换，形成新兴支柱产业，促进煤炭企业向综合能源企业升级和发展。Innovatethedevelopmentpatternofcoalenterprises:transferfrom“resourcesdevelopmentoriented”to“innovationandbenefitoriented”,graduallyforminganotherpillarindustry.Promotethecoalenterprisestoanintegratedenergyenterprisestoupgradeanddevelopment.实现文明健康发展:推进高碳能源的高效化、低碳化、清洁化利用，实现“能源-社会-环境”的和谐发展。Realizecivilizedandhealthydevelopment:makehighcarbonenergybecomelowcarbonandcleansoastorealizetheharmoniousdevelopmentof“energy-society-environment”.在中国，基于“以煤为主，缺油少气”的能源结构，采用洁净煤技术，以煤/甲醇为原料生产低碳烯烃，可以节省大量乙烯裂解轻油，降低石油对外依赖度，是实现石油替代战略现实、可靠、有效的途径；同时，可促进煤炭企业的升级转换，为关联产