西北地区煤炭开发利用对水环境影响预测分析

241Vol.24No.120101JournalofAridLandResourcesandEnvironmentJan.2010:1003-7578(2010)01-148-063(,266061):,,,,,,,:;;;:P641.4+61:A,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[1],;,,,,,,,,,70%,40%,,,,,,,,,,11.1,,,,,,,,,,,[2][2],,3:2008-11-18:(2004DIB3J089):(1967-),,,,,Email:[e-mail]1.1.1,,19806.10t199613.81t,5.2%1997,,,199812.13t,19961.68t,12.2%1999,,,,,,200213.80t2002,,,,200521.23t,201025t,202030t(1)(),20001.74t,17%;20033.56t,20.6%;20055.3t,24.2%,2010202027%37%(2)1(:t)Tab.1Forecastofcoalproductioninnationwide(unit:hundredmillionton)201020202325272830322(:t)Tab.2Forecastofcoalproductioninnorthwest(unit:hundredmillionton)201020206.216.757.2910.3611.111.841.1.2:1.07m3/t,2.08m3/t;10m3/t,3m3/t,20,(3a),,,,,,(10m3/t),,(3b)1.2320102020(:m3)Tab.3Destroyedwateramountincoalmininginnorthwestin2010-2020(unit:hundredmillionm3)20102020a18.620.321.931.133.335.5b62.167.572.9103.6111118.4,,,,,,,,,,2.2109m3[3],3m3[4];10m3;,13.9m3/t,17.8m3/t,47.1m3/t[5],,0.65m3/t,1.19m3/t,1.68m3/t[6];0.87m3/t,(4)1.3,,;,9411,1.3.1420102020(:m3)Tab.4Forecastofminewaterdischargeamountinnorthwestin2010-2020(unit:hundredmillionm3)201020205.45.96.399.710.3,1t1t[7],20102020(5),,85%(),,,,,200233.7%,43%,31.34%,50%95%,,2010,,,,2010,8.08t,40%[8],202050%1t0.4t,(5)1.3.2520102020Tab.5Waterconsumptionforecastincoalproductionandwashinginnorthwestin2010-202020102020(m3)6.26.87.310.411.111.8(m3)2.52.72.95.25.65.9(%)40501990,75%,80%,76%2020,20102.78KWh,6.29KW20204.33KWh,9.28KW,5.77KW,62%,,20043589KW,,20107596KW,2020,202015000KW,(6),2t[9],20102020(6)1.3.3620102020Tab.6Waterconsumptionforecastinthermalpowerinnorthwestin2010-202020102020(KW)500070009000120001500018000(m3)11.41.82.433.6,,1.82.0t,,,,,,[10],:,,,,,20044.41Mt,2001100%,200334.9%[11]7(:t)Tab.7Designofthecoalchemicalindustryscaleinnorthwest(unit:tenthousandston)201020201000200030003000400050008001000150020002500300005124,20102020(7),1711t[12],1t69t[13],1t9t,1t7.5t,20102020(8)8(:m3)Tab.8Waterconsumptionforecastinthecoalchemicalindustryinnorthwest201020200.91.82.72.73.64.50.60.81.11.51.92.3120102020Fig.1Influenceofwaterresourceamountincoalmining,processingandconversioninnorthwestin2010-2020,201072.9m3(b);2020118.4m3(b),4.95%20105.46.3m3,20209.010.3m3201011.215.8m3,0.56%;202022.228.1m3,1.05%,1.9(1)1.4,,1.4.12005,4735.2,46650t,9.85t/1020,,20102020,(9)920102020Tab.9Forecastofwastewaterdischargeamountincoalminingandwashinginnorthwestin2010-202020102020(t)13228.214378.415528.722068.223644.525220.8200521.9t,24.2%,,200511289t9,20102020,0.42t1.39t1.4.22004,32948.3KW,14904.3,246832t,16.56t/1020,,20102020,(10)1020102020Tab.10Forecastofdischargeamountofthethermalpowerwasterwaterinnorthwestin2010-202020102020(t)37457.552440.567423.589897.9112372.4134846.920043589KW,10.9%,,1511200426886t10,20102020,4.1t10.8t1.4.3140t/a,2010370t1110t,20201110t1850t60t/a,20103136t5880t,20207840t11760t(11)1120102020(:t)Tab.11Forecastofthecoalchemicalindustrywasterwaterdischargeamountinnorthwestin2010-2020(unit:tenthousandton)201020200.373707401110111014808503.923136392058807840980011760220102020Fig.2Forecastofthewastewaterdischargeamountinthecoalmining,processingandconversioninnorthwestin2010-2020,2010,5.49.0t,202012.117.4t,:201069%75%,202074%77%22(1),,2020118.4m3,4.95%;22.228.1m3,1.05%,1.9,,,,,,,,,(2),,2020,12.117.4t,3,,,(3),,,,;,,,;,,,,[1].[J].,2003,1(1):35-37.[2].[M].:,2003.[3],.[J].,2003,14(4):71-73.[4].[J].,1995(6):2-4.[5],.[J].,2000,14(5):20-23.[6],,.-[J].,1994,1(4):92-99.25124[7].[M].:,2004.[8].[9]..[10].[J].,2006,32(2):10-12.[11].[J].,2006(2):1-3.[12],.[J].,2003(4):9-10.[13],.[J].,2002,28(7):20-24.PredictionandanalysisforinfluenceofcoalexploitationonwaterenvironmentinnorthwesternChinaQIULixin(EconomyandManagementInstitute,QingdaoUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Qingdao266061,P.R.China)Abstract:NorthwestChinarichincoalresourceswillbecomethemainbaseofenergysupplyinthefuture.Be2causeofthenaturalconditionsofextremelypoorwaterresources,theeco-environmentisveryfragile.Howev2er,coalexploitationwillaffectsurfaceecologyandtheenvironment,groundwaterresourceswillbedisturbed.Inthispaper,scenarioanalysisisadoptedsoastoforecasttheimpactsofcoalexploitationonwaterenvironmentinnorthwestinthenest20years.Theresultsprovidebasisfordecisionmakingforcoalindustrydevelopmentandeco-environmentprotectioninnorthwest.Keywords:coalexploitation;waterenvironmentalinfluence;forecast;northwestChina3511