North African Oil And Gas Summit 2007 Documents_Se

Deliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustry–September2007-ParisAgendaKeyTrendsinFiscalRegimesImpactofRecentFiscalChangesGovernmentTake-ExistingAssetsGovernmentTake-NewInvestmentFiscalStabilityConclusions3DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisWoodMackenzie’s2007GovernmentTakeStudyWhatisit?•Acomprehensivecomparisonandrankingof100+fiscalregimesworldwide•Investigatesdriversbehindfiscalchangesinrecentyearsandtheirimpactonexistingandnewinvestments,includinganalysisof29companies•AnalysesflexibilityandperceivedstabilityofeachregimeWhatdoesitcover?•Trendsinfiscalregimes•Theimpactofrecentfiscalchanges•GovernmentTakefromexistingassets:regimeandcorporateanalysis•GovernmentTakefromhypotheticalnewinvestments•Fiscalstability4DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisAgendaKeyTrendsinFiscalRegimesImpactofRecentFiscalChangesGovernmentTake&ExistingAssetsNewInvestmentFiscalStabilityConclusions5DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisManyoftherecenttrendsseeninglobalfiscalregimesareapparentinNorthAfricanregimesNotably:•Windfallprofitstaxes•Algeria•Fiscaltermsusedasbidfactors•Algeria,EgyptandLibyaButalso:•Slidingscaletaxation•Increasedstatecontrol•Securingearlygovernmentrevenue•DifferentiatingfiscaltermsbetweenoilandgasWindfallProfitsTaxRates-1020304050607080102030405060708090100OilPrice($/bbl)TaxRate(%)Alaska(PPT)Algeria(WPT)Argentina(ExportDuty)China(SpecialOilLevy)Ecuador(WPT)Malaysia(SuppPayment)Russia(ExportDuty)Source:WoodMackenzieGovernmentTakeStudy(2007)Algeria’sWPTisoneamongstmanynowimplementedorbeingconsideredinglobalfiscalregimes6DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisImpactofRecentFiscalChangesChangingtherulesofthegameforexistingassets..NinecountrieshavechangedtherulesonexistingfieldsandincreasedtheStateTakeDrivers:resourcenationalismorfiscalterms,withoutprogressiveGovernmentTake,notcapturingpriceupsideforthestateIntroductionofPetroleumWindfallTax(WPT)inAlgeriahasresultedaUS$7billionincreaseingovernmenttake•FewcontractsseverelyaffectedIOCNPV10:impactoffiscalchangessince2001(baseprice)-100-75-50-25025ChangeinIOCNPV10(US$bn)-100%-75%-50%-25%0%25%ChangeinIOCRemainingNPV10(%)US$bn%Source:WoodMackenzieGovernmentTakeStudy(2007)-139.57DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisAgendaKeyTrendsinFiscalRegimesImpactofRecentFiscalChangesGovernmentTake-ExistingAssetsGovernmentTake-NewInvestmentFiscalStabilityConclusions8DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisNigeria2005Round-winningbids45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%050100150200250300350SignatureBonus(US$mm)CostOilCeilingOnshoreShelfDeepwaterLibya2ndEPSAIVRound(2005)WinningIOCProductionAllocationBids0%5%10%15%20%25%30%176146818216124016112314717682102123178118612317194424417LicenceNo.“..somegovernmentshavealwaysdemandedahightake..somehaverecentlydemandedahightake..andsomehavehadahightakethrustuponthem”ImpactofRecentFiscalChanges..givingtheindustryenoughrope..9DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisStateTake:impactoffiscalchangessince2001(100mmbblfield;US$50/bbl)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%StateTake%Pre-TakeNPV02002terms2007termsSource:WoodMackenzieGovernmentTakeStudy(2007)LibyaandAlgeriaareamongstthosenumerousregimesthathaveevolvedfiscaltermsfornewinvestmentsince2001KeydriverbeingthedesiretocaptureupsidefortheStateinthehighpriceenvironmentLibyaAlgeriaEgyptAngolaNigeriaCameroonVenezuelaIndonesiaKazakhstanUS(GoM)UKRegimespromotinginvestmenthaveactuallyloweredStakeTaketopromoteinvestment10DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisAndbothLibyaandAlgeriaretainStateownershipofthemajoritytheirgloballysignificantreservesResourcenationalism/increasedstateequityinprojectsisanincreasingtrend-Algeria/Libyaalreadyhaveahigh%shareofremainingreservesbutEgyptincludesIOCsinalmostallprojectsStateOwnershipvsRemainingReserves0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%010203040506070RemainingReserves(billionboe)StateOwnership%TotalReservesSource:WoodMackenzieGovernmentTakeStudy(2007)ExcludesRussia(276bnboe;65%state)andSaudiArabia(205bnboe;100%state)AlgeriaEgyptLibya11DeliveringcommercialinsighttotheglobalenergyindustryWoodMackenzieEnergyTheNorthAfricaOilandGasSummit–September2007-ParisAlgeria-ImpactofWindfallPetroleumTax(WPT)ContractswithoutpricecappingmechanismsareseverelyimpactedbyWPTAnadarko,EniandMaer