North African Oil And Gas Summit 2007 Documents_Se

NorthAfrica’sContributiontoEuropeanSecurityofEnergySupplyAndrewHayman,Director-IndustryRelationsIHSNorthAfricaOilandGasSummitParis5-6September20072Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedAgenda¾GlobalMarketsforAfricanOilandGas¾US–energyrequirementscontinuingtoincrease…Isenergyefficiencyorsubstitutionaroundthecorner?¾Europe–increasingenergyefficiency,butdecreasingindigenoussupplies¾ChinaandIndia–voraciousdemand¾Pan-Africandemand…growing,butsmallbyglobalstandards¾NorthAfricanRegion¾OilandGasResourcesandProduction¾SignificantProjects¾DownstreamDevelopments¾EuropeanDemand3Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedImportsat13MMb/dDeclineindomesticproductionPrincipalsupplies02000400060008000100001200014000160001996199719981999200020012002200320042005TotalImportsOPECAngolaNigeriaVenezuelaCanadaMexicoUSOilImportsbycountry,Mbo/d(EIAdata)Despitehopesnewdeepplays(Jack)intheGOM,USimportsarelikelytocontinuetorise4Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedTheNewConsumers–China:OilImports2005MiddleEastAsiaPacificRussia-LAAngolaSudanCongoEqGuineaNigeriaAlgeriaLibyaOtherAfricaChineseimports,byorigin,JantoNov2005(116millionmetrictonnes)Consumptionisprojectedtorisefrom6.5MMbo/d(2003)to14.2MMbo/d(2025)5Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedTheNewConsumers–India:OilImports2003-4Total:90MMmtConsumptionisprojectedtorisefrom2.2MMbo/din2003to2.8MMbo/din2010FarEast4%LatinAmerica5%MiddleEast68%Libya2%Sudan1%Angola3%EG0%Gabon1%Nigeria12%Egypt4%Russia0%6Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedOilandGasGeopoliticalEnvironment-summary•TheUSoilmarketisstilltheprincipalfactorinsettingworlddemand(andprice)•China/Indiaeconomies–willtheyoverheatat~10%growth?•TheEUneedslong-termstablesuppliesofoilandgasfrommultiplesources•…essentiallythismeanssupplyfromAfricatocomplementRussia7Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedNorthAfrica–theEnergyScene•Algeria•Oilandgasinabundance,Maturegasplayer;akeystoneofEuropeangassupply;greatcompetitionforassets.•Statetakesamajorityshareinprojects,followingmodificationstolaw•«Globalized»explorationpark(US,European,Asiancompanies…)•Egypt•80Tcfdiscovered,muchmoretobefound(officialplantoreach190Tcfin5years)•MajorinvestmentsinEandP•BG,$1billioninvestments.BG,BP,ENI«incompetition»•OffshorepipelinetoIsrael(Petrojet)isnowapproved?•ArabGasPipelinetoJordanandSyria•Libya•Oilinmultiplebasins;successesinfrontierbasins(Murzuk).Seekstodoublereservesanddoubleproductionby2010.Bidroundsarelengthy;drivefornewinwardinvestments•BP–megacontract$1billion;Newgas-orientedbidroundin2007;NewEORround•Tunisia–renaissanceinEandP•Mauritania–joinedtheproducers;gasperspectives?•Sudan–giantdiscoveries;asecondpipeline;strategicoilsuppliertotheFarEast•Chad–stableproduction,butlittleinterestinexploration8Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedNorthAfrica-RemainingResources–liquids(MMb)(includingNGLs)01000020000300004000050000600002006200520042003200220012000199919981997RegionLibyaAlgeriaEgyptTunisiaSudanMauritaniaChad9Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedNorthAfricaLiquids*Production*IncludesNGLs(Algeria,500,000b/d)01000200030004000500060002006200520042003200220012000199919981997RegionLibyaAlgeriaEgyptTunisiaSudanMauritaniaChad10Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedNorthAfricaGasResourcesBcf0500001000001500002000002500003000002006200520042003200220012000199919981997RegionLibyaAlgeriaEgyptTunisiaSudanMauritaniaChad11Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedNorthAfricaGasProductionMMscf/d0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002006200520042003200220012000199919981997RegionLibyaAlgeriaEgyptTunisiaSudanMauritaniaChad12Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedNorthAfrica–ResourcesandProductionsummary•OilProductionhasrisenquitesharplysince2002•RemainingOilisdroppingoff,althoughallindicationsareofadditionalprospectivity•RegionResources-to-Productionratioforoilhasdroppedto25years•GasProductionhasrisensharplyandisunderpinnedbyEgyptianfinds(NileDelta)•Gasprospectivityverygood(Statistics:IHS«PEPS»2007)13Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedAlgeria-KeyUpstreamDevelopments•Industrial-sizedmega-projectsarestillavailable•CompaniescanproposeprojectstoSonatrach,groupingundevelopedfieldswithexplorationupside•ExampleInSalah,InAmenas•Ahnet,RegganeBasins(Saharadesert)–additionalgaspotentialforthelongterm•BerkineBasin–gascondensatefields14Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedAlgeria-KeyUpstreamDevelopments•MajorundevelopedgasfieldsinSahara,notfullyexploitedasyet•DevelopmentofanextensivepipelinenetworkSahara:AhnetandRegganeBasins15Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedBerkineBasin–FirstCalgaryPetMLEgascondensatefield.Gross2PreservesonBlock2005est:2.8Tcf,294MMbo16Copyright©2005IHSInc.AllRightsReservedEgypt-KeyUpstreamDevelopments•Deep-toUltra-DeepWaterNileDelta•BG•intendstoinvest$1billionforWestDeltaDeepandRosettaproductionfacilities•Alsolookingforquantiitesfor3rdLNGtrainatIdku…3.6Mt/annum•ShellNEMED(ongoingexplorationprogramme)…istheultradeepwatercommercial?•OperatorlookingforLNGquantities•BP•Ravenfield(LwrMiocene)–newpre-Messinianplay•Lookingforupto10Tcfinthisplay•ENI•Toinvest$12millio