A Robot in Every Home 英译汉

ARobotinEveryHomeTheleaderofthePCrevolutionpredictsthatthenexthotfieldwillberoboticsImaginebeingpresentatthebirthofanewindustry.Itisanindustrybasedongroundbreakingnewtechnologies,whereinahandfulofwell-establishedcorporationssellhighlyspecializeddevicesforbusinessuseandafast-growingnumberofstart-upcompaniesproduceinnovativetoys,gadgetsforhobbyistsandotherinterestingnicheproducts.Butitisalsoahighlyfragmentedindustrywithfewcommonstandardsorplatforms.Projectsarecomplex,progressisslow,andpracticalapplicationsarerelativelyrare.Infact,foralltheexcitementandpromise,noonecansaywithanycertaintywhen--orevenif--thisindustrywillachievecriticalmass.Ifitdoes,though,itmaywellchangetheworld.Ofcourse,theparagraphabovecouldbeadescriptionofthecomputerindustryduringthemid-1970s,aroundthetimethatPaulAllenandIlaunchedMicrosoft.Backthen,big,expensivemainframecomputersrantheback-officeoperationsformajorcompanies,governmentaldepartmentsandotherinstitutions.Researchersatleadinguniversitiesandindustriallaboratorieswerecreatingthebasicbuildingblocksthatwouldmaketheinformationagepossible.Intelhadjustintroducedthe8080microprocessor,andAtariwassellingthepopularelectronicgamePong.Athomegrowncomputerclubs,enthusiastsstruggledtofigureoutexactlywhatthisnewtechnologywasgoodfor.ButwhatIreallyhaveinmindissomethingmuchmorecontemporary:theemergenceoftheroboticsindustry,whichisdevelopinginmuchthesamewaythatthecomputerbusinessdid30yearsago.Thinkofthemanufacturingrobotscurrentlyusedonautomobileassemblylinesastheequivalentofyesterday'smainframes.Theindustry'snicheproductsincluderoboticarmsthatperformsurgery,surveillancerobotsdeployedinIraqandAfghanistanthatdisposeofroadsidebombs,anddomesticrobotsthatvacuumthefloor.Electronicscompanieshavemaderobotictoysthatcanimitatepeopleordogsordinosaurs,andhobbyistsareanxioustogettheirhandsonthelatestversionoftheLegoroboticssystem.Meanwhilesomeoftheworld'sbestmindsaretryingtosolvethetoughestproblemsofrobotics,suchasvisualrecognition,navigationandmachinelearning.Andtheyaresucceeding.Atthe2004DefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA)GrandChallenge,acompetitiontoproducethefirstroboticvehiclecapableofnavigatingautonomouslyoverarugged142-milecoursethroughtheMojaveDesert,thetopcompetitormanagedtotraveljust7.4milesbeforebreakingdown.In2005,though,fivevehiclescoveredthecompletedistance,andtherace'swinnerdiditatanaveragespeedof19.1milesanhour.(Inanotherintriguingparallelbetweentheroboticsandcomputerindustries,DARPAalsofundedtheworkthatledtothecreationofArpanet,theprecursortotheInternet.)Whatismore,thechallengesfacingtheroboticsindustryaresimilartothosewetackledincomputingthreedecadesago.Roboticscompanieshavenostandardoperatingsoftwarethatcouldallowpopularapplicationprogramstoruninavarietyofdevices.Thestandardizationofroboticprocessorsandotherhardwareislimited,andverylittleoftheprogrammingcodeusedinonemachinecanbeappliedtoanother.Wheneversomebodywantstobuildanewrobot,theyusuallyhavetostartfromsquareone.Despitethesedifficulties,whenItalktopeopleinvolvedinrobotics--fromuniversityresearcherstoentrepreneurs,hobbyistsandhighschoolstudents--thelevelofexcitementandexpectationremindsmesomuchofthattimewhenPaulAllenandIlookedattheconvergenceofnewtechnologiesanddreamedofthedaywhenacomputerwouldbeoneverydeskandineveryhome.AndasIlookatthetrendsthatarenowstartingtoconverge,Icanenvisionafutureinwhichroboticdeviceswillbecomeanearlyubiquitouspartofourday-to-daylives.Ibelievethattechnologiessuchasdistributedcomputing,voiceandvisualrecognition,andwirelessbroadbandconnectivitywillopenthedoortoanewgenerationofautonomousdevicesthatenablecomputerstoperformtasksinthephysicalworldonourbehalf.Wemaybeonthevergeofanewera,whenthePCwillgetupoffthedesktopandallowustosee,hear,touchandmanipulateobjectsinplaceswherewearenotphysicallypresent.FromScienceFictiontoRealityThewordrobotwaspopularizedin1921byCzechplay¿wrightKarelCapek,butpeoplehaveenvisionedcreatingrobotlikedevicesforthousandsofyears.InGreekandRomanmythology,thegodsofmetalworkbuiltmechanicalservantsmadefromgold.InthefirstcenturyA.D.,HeronofAlexandria--thegreatengineercreditedwithinventingthefirststeamengine--designedintriguingautomatons,includingonesaidtohavetheabilitytotalk.LeonardodaVinci's1495sketchofamechanicalknight,whichcouldsitupandmoveitsarmsandlegs,isconsideredtobethefirstplanforahumanoidrobot.Overthepastcentury,anthropomorphicmachineshavebecomefamiliarfiguresinpopularculturethroughbookssuchasIsaacAsimov'sI,Robot,moviessuchasStarWarsandtelevisionshowssuchasStarTrek.Thepopularityofrobotsinfictionindicatesthatpeoplearereceptivetotheideathatthesemachineswillonedaywalkamongusashelpersandevenascompanions.Nevertheless,althoughrobotsplayavitalroleinindustriessuchasautomobilemanufacturing--wherethereisaboutonerobotforevery10workers--thefactisthatwehavealongwaytogobeforerealrobotscatchupwiththeirscience-fictioncounterparts.Onereasonforthisgapisthatithasbeenmuchharderthanexpectedtoenablecomputersandrobotstosensetheirsurroundingenvironmentandtoreactquicklyandaccurately.Ithasprovedextremelydifficult