ARobotinEveryHome每一个家庭机器TheleaderofthePCrevolutionpredictsthatthenexthotfieldwillberoboticsPC革命的领导人预计,下一个热门领域将机器人ByBillGates由比尔盖茨Imaginebeingpresentatthebirthofanewindustry.Itisanindustrybasedongroundbreakingnewtechnologies,whereinahandfulofwell-establishedcorporationssellhighlyspecializeddevicesforbusinessuseandafast-growingnumberofstart-upcompaniesproduceinnovativetoys,gadgetsforhobbyistsandotherinterestingnicheproducts.Butitisalsoahighlyfragmentedindustrywithfewcommonstandardsorplatforms.Projectsarecomplex,progressisslow,andpracticalapplicationsarerelativelyrare.Infact,foralltheexcitementandpromise,noonecansaywithanycertaintywhen--orevenif--thisindustrywillachievecriticalmass.Ifitdoes,though,itmaywellchangetheworld.想象在一个新行业的诞生。基于突破性的新技术,它是一种行业中少数的公司出售商业使用和高度专业化的设备数量快速增长的初创企业产生创新的玩具,电子产品爱好者和其他有趣的利基产品。但它也是一个高度分散的行业,一些常见的标准或平台。项目复杂,进展缓慢,实际应用比较少见。事实上,对于所有的激情和承诺,没有人能说任何确定性——或者即使——这个行业什么时候达到临界质量。如果是这样,不过,很可能改变世界。Ofcourse,theparagraphabovecouldbeadescriptionofthecomputerindustryduringthemid-1970s,aroundthetimethatPaulAllenandIlaunchedMicrosoft.Backthen,big,expensivemainframecomputersrantheback-officeoperationsformajorcompanies,governmentaldepartmentsandotherinstitutions.Researchersatleadinguniversitiesandindustriallaboratorieswerecreatingthebasicbuildingblocksthatwouldmaketheinformationagepossible.Intelhadjustintroducedthe8080microprocessor,andAtariwassellingthepopularelectronicgamePong.Athomegrowncomputerclubs,enthusiastsstruggledtofigureoutexactlywhatthisnewtechnologywasgoodfor.当然,上面的段落可以描述计算机行业在1970年代中期,当时,我和保罗·艾伦创办微软。当时,大,昂贵的大型机电脑跑大公司的后台运作,政府部门和其他机构。一流大学和工业实验室的研究人员创造的基本构建块,使信息时代成为可能。英特尔刚刚介绍了8080微处理器,雅达利是受欢迎的电子游戏Pong出售。国产电脑俱乐部,爱好者很难弄清楚到底是什么这种新技术很好。ButwhatIreallyhaveinmindissomethingmuchmorecontemporary:theemergenceoftheroboticsindustry,whichisdevelopinginmuchthesamewaythatthecomputerbusinessdid30yearsago.Thinkofthemanufacturingrobotscurrentlyusedonautomobileassemblylinesastheequivalentofyesterday'smainframes.Theindustry'snicheproductsincluderoboticarmsthatperformsurgery,surveillancerobotsdeployedinIraqandAfghanistanthatdisposeofroadsidebombs,anddomesticrobotsthatvacuumthefloor.Electronicscompanieshavemaderobotictoysthatcanimitatepeopleordogsordinosaurs,andhobbyistsareanxioustogettheirhandsonthelatestversionoftheLegoroboticssystem.但我真的有什么想法是更为现代的东西:机器人行业的出现,这是开发一样,计算机业务30年前。认为目前使用的制造机器人汽车装配线上相当于昨天的大型机。该行业的利基产品包括机械臂执行手术,监视机器人部署在伊拉克和阿富汗,处置路边炸弹,和国内机器人真空。电子公司已经使机器人玩具,可以模仿人或狗或恐龙,和业余爱好者急于拿到最新版本的乐高机器人系统。Meanwhilesomeoftheworld'sbestmindsaretryingtosolvethetoughestproblemsofrobotics,suchasvisualrecognition,navigationandmachinelearning.Andtheyaresucceeding.Atthe2004DefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA)GrandChallenge,acompetitiontoproducethefirstroboticvehiclecapableofnavigatingautonomouslyoverarugged142-milecoursethroughtheMojaveDesert,thetopcompetitormanagedtotraveljust7.4milesbeforebreakingdown.In2005,though,fivevehiclescoveredthecompletedistance,andtherace'swinnerdiditatanaveragespeedof19.1milesanhour.(Inanotherintriguingparallelbetweentheroboticsandcomputerindustries,DARPAalsofundedtheworkthatledtothecreationofArpanet,theprecursortotheInternet.)与此同时一些世界上最好的思想正试图解决机器人的棘手问题,比如视觉识别、导航和机器学习。他们成功。在2004年的国防高级研究计划局(DARPA)大挑战,竞争产生第一个机器人车辆自主导航的能力在一个坚固的142英里的莫哈韦沙漠,前竞争对手设法打破之前旅行仅7.4英里。2005年,五辆覆盖完整的距离,和比赛的赢家是平均每小时19.1英里的速度。(在另一个有趣的机器人和计算机行业之间的平行,DARPA资助工作,导致Arpanet的创建,互联网的前身)。Whatismore,thechallengesfacingtheroboticsindustryaresimilartothosewetackledincomputingthreedecadesago.Roboticscompanieshavenostandardoperatingsoftwarethatcouldallowpopularapplicationprogramstoruninavarietyofdevices.Thestandardizationofroboticprocessorsandotherhardwareislimited,andverylittleoftheprogrammingcodeusedinonemachinecanbeappliedtoanother.Wheneversomebodywantstobuildanewrobot,theyusuallyhavetostartfromsquareone.更重要的是,机器人行业所面临的挑战是类似我们解决在计算30年前。机器人公司没有标准的操作软件,可以让受欢迎的应用程序运行在各种设备。机器人处理器和其他硬件的标准化是有限的,和很少的编程代码中使用一台机器可以应用到另一个地方。每当有人想建立一个新的机器人,他们通常从起点开始。Despitethesedifficulties,whenItalktopeopleinvolvedinrobotics--fromuniversityresearcherstoentrepreneurs,hobbyistsandhighschoolstudents--thelevelofexcitementandexpectationremindsmesomuchofthattimewhenPaulAllenandIlookedattheconvergenceofnewtechnologiesanddreamedofthedaywhenacomputerwouldbeoneverydeskandineveryhome.AndasIlookatthetrendsthatarenowstartingtoconverge,Icanenvisionafutureinwhichroboticdeviceswillbecomeanearlyubiquitouspartofourday-to-daylives.Ibelievethattechnologiessuchasdistributedcomputing,voiceandvisualrecognition,andwirelessbroadbandconnectivitywillopenthedoortoanewgenerationofautonomousdevicesthatenablecomputerstoperformtasksinthephysicalworldonourbehalf.Wemaybeonthevergeofanewera,whenthePCwillgetupoffthedesktopandallowustosee,hear,touchandmanipulateobjectsinplaceswherewearenotphysicallypresent.尽管有这些困难,当我跟人们参与机器人——从大学的研究人员到企业家,爱好者和高中学生,兴奋和期待的水平让我想起,当保罗·艾伦和我看着新技术的融合,梦想那一天电脑将在每个家庭的每张桌子上。我看现在开始趋同的趋势,我可以预见未来的机器人设备将成为一个几乎无所不在的我们日常生活的一部分。我相信技术,如分布式计算、声音和视觉识别,无线宽带连接将开门的新一代自动设备,使计算机执行任务代表我们在现实世界中。我们可能会在一个新时代的边缘,当电脑将从桌面,让我们看到的,听到的,接触和操作对象的地方我们不是身体。FromScienceFictiontoReality从科幻变成现实Thewordrobo