【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--18-大学课件2

Chapter18ConductofMonetaryPolicy:GoalsandTargets©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-2GoalsofMonetaryPolicyGoals1.HighEmployment2.EconomicGrowth3.PriceStability4.InterestRateStability5.FinancialMarketStability6.ForeignExchangeMarketStabilityGoalsofteninconflict©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-3HighEmploymentHighemploymentisaworthygoalfortworeasons:1.Thealternativesituation,highunemployment,causesmuchhumanmisery,withpeoplesufferingfinancialdistress,lossofpersonalself-respect,andincrime.2.Whenuishigh,theeconomyhasnotonlyidleworkersbutalsoidleresources,resultinginalowerGDP.Buthowlowshouldube?Becausefrictionalunemployment(whichinvolvessearchesbyworkersandfirmstofindsuitablematchups)isdesirable,andbecausepolicycandolittleaboutstructuralunemployment(duetoamismatchbetweenjobrequirementsandtheskillsofworkers),thegoalofhighemploymentshouldseeknotu=0butu0consistentwithfullemployment(atwhichthedemandforlaborequalsthesupplyoflabor).Thislevelofuiscalledthenaturalrateofunemployment.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-4EconomicGrowthThegoalofsteadyeconomicgrowthiscloselyrelatedtothegoaloflowubecausebusinessesaremorelikelytoinvestinphysicalcapitaltoproductivityandgrowthwhenuislow.Ifuishighandfactoriesareidle,itdoesnotpayforfirmstoinvestinadditionalphysicalcapital.Hence,policiescanbespecificallyaimedatpromotingeconomicgrowthbydirectlyencouragingfirmstoinvestorbyencouragingpeopletosave,whichprovidesmorefundsforfirmstoinvest.Infact,thisisthestatedpurposeofso-calledsupply-sideeconomicpolicies,whichprovidetaxincentivesforfirmstoinvestmoreandforpeopletosavemore.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-5PriceStabilityInrecentyearspolicymakershavebecomeincreasinglyawareofthesocialandeconomiccostsofinflationandmoreconcernedwithastablePasagoalofeconomicpolicy.Infact,Pstabilityisviewedasthemostimportantgoalformonetarypolicybecause1.inflationcreatesuncertaintythatmayhampergrowth2.inflationmakesithardtoplanforthefuture3.inflationmaystrainacountry’ssocialfabric(bycreatingconflictsbetweendifferentgroups)4.extremeinflation,knownashyperinflation,leadstoslowergrowthasforexampleinArgentina,Brazil,andRussiaintherecentpast.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-6Interest-RateStability•Interest-ratestabilityisdesirablebecausefluctuationsininterestratescancreateuncertaintyandmakeitharder(forbothfirmsandhouseholds)toplanforthefuture.•Acentralbankmayalsowanttoreduceupwardmovementsininterestratesbecausesuchmovementsgeneratehostilitytowardcentralbanksandleadtodemandsthattheirindependenceandpowershouldbereduced(seeChapter14).©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-7StabilityofFinancialMarkets•Financialcrisescaninterferewiththeabilityoffinancialmarketstochannelfundsfromsurplusspendingunitstodeficitspendingunits,therebyleadingtoasharpcontractionineconomicactivity.•Thepromotionofamorestablefinancialsysteminwhichfinancialcrisesareavoidedisthusanimportantgoalforacentralbank.•Thestabilityoffinancialmarketsisalsofosteredbyistabilitybecausefluctuationsinicreateuncertaintyforfinancialfirms,affectingboththeirprofitsaswellastheirnetworth.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-8StabilityinForeignExchangeMarkets•Thevalueofthe$hasbecomeamajorconsiderationfortheBankofCanada.AninEmakesCanadianindustrieslesscompetitivewiththoseabroadandainEstimulatesinflationinCanada.•AlsopreventinglargechangesinEmakesiteasierforfirmsandpeopleinvolvedininternationaltradetoplanahead.•StabilizingextrememovementsinEinFXmarketsisthusviewedasaworthygoalofmonetarypolicy.Infact,incountrieswhichareevenmoredependentonforeigntrade,stabilityinFXmarketstakesonevengreaterimportance.$euroE©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-9ConflictAmongGoals•Manyofthegoalsmentionedareconsistentwitheachotheras,forexample,•highemploymentwitheconomicgrowth,and•istabilitywithfinancialmarketstability.•However,Pstabilityisinconflictwithistabilityandlowuintheshortrun(butprobablynotinthelongrun).Forexample,whentheeconomyisexpandingandubothandimaystartto.IftheBanktriestopreventanini,thismaycausetheeconomytooverheatandstimulate.ButiftheBankitoprevent,intheshortrunumay.•Theconflictamonggoalsmaythuspresentcentralbankswithsomehardchoices!©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-10CentralBankStrategy©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-11Useof(OperatingandIntermediate)Targets•SupposethattheBankwantstoachievea5%rateofgrowthfornominalGDPandistargetinganaggregate(sayM1+).IftheBankfeelsthatthe5%nominalGDPgrowthratewillbeachievedbya4%growthrateforM1+(itsintermediatetarget),whichwillinturnbeachievedbya3%MBgrowthrate(itsoperatingtarget),itwilluseitstoolstoachievethe3%MBgrowthrate.•Afterimplementingthispolicy,iftheBankfindsthatMBisgrowingtooslowly,itcanuseopenmarketpurchasestoincreaseit.SomewhatlatertheBankwillbegintoseehowitspolicyaffectsthegrowthrateofM1+.IfM1+isgrowingtoofast(sayat7%),theBankwillreduceitsopenmarketpurchasesormakeopenmarketsalestoreducetheM1+growthrate.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.18-12MoneySupplyTarget1.MdfluctuatesbetweenMd'andMd''2.WithM-targetatM*,ifluctuatesbetweeni'andi''©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc